- SoftBank might be a better long-term play than Yahoo. SoftBank will comprise 2% of my 2015 portfolio.
- SoftBank has a bigger stake in Alibaba than Yahoo. The 32% stake of SoftBank Corp. in Alibaba is now worth $84 billion.
- SoftBank’s current market cap is just $71.21 Billion. This glaring disparity is an excellent opportunity for any investor.
- The four big mobile carriers are playing a "great game" and price wars are just one part of it.
- Expect a big merger next year as rivals compete for DISH spectrum.
- SoftBank will be the long-term winner, but you'll have to wait for your profit.
SoftBank: 'Clash Of Clans' Is Still A Massive Cash Cow
- The $1.5 billion investment last year on Supercell is proving to be another big win for SoftBank.
- In spite of Disney and Rovio releasing clones of Clash of Clans last month, Supercell’s strategy game remains the top grossing mobile game this October.
- More Asians are now playing mobile games. The top players and clans on Clash of Clans include people from Vietnam, Brazil, Middle East and the Philippines.
- Bloomberg says SoftBank is offering $32 per share for DreamWorks Animation SKG. DreamWorks’ closing price last September 26 was only $22.36.
- SoftBank recently made around $4.6 billion profit from Alibaba’s IPO. The buyout offer for DreamWorks Animation will only cost around $3.1 billion.
- Aside from the revenue from animated movies, DreamWorks Animation complements SoftBank’s mobile games business.
SoftBank Is The World's Top Mobile Games Publisher
- SoftBank’s $1.5 billion payment to acquire 51% controlling stake in Supercell is paying off very well.
- Softbank now owns the top-grossing Clash of Clans and Puzzles & Dragons games.
- The mobile games industry is growing at a faster rate than console or PC gaming. SoftBank's control of Supercell and GungHo Entertainment makes it the best bet on gaming.
What Softbank's Stock Price Tell Us About Alibaba's Valuation (And Why It Makes Yahoo Look Even Cheaper)
- When you break down Softbank's sum-of-the-parts valuation, it implies a very different Alibaba value to that implied by Yahoo's share price.
- Despite different technicals, the disparity is glaring enough to suggest YHOO stock is simply too cheap in the lead-up to the Alibaba IPO.
- Merely closing the gap to where Softbank implies Alibaba should price ($151bn) suggests upside of ~$5 per YHOO share, while current analyst estimates of Alibaba's value leave much more upside.
Why SoftBank Could Be Worth $71 A Share On The Day Of The Alibaba IPO
- SoftBank's investment in Sprint is proving to be successful as Sprint is up over 11% post-earnings, which were reported on April 29, 2014.
- I believe SoftBank's core business and equity interests sans Alibaba is projected to be valued at $68 billion.
- My sum-of-the-parts analysis shows a pre-Alibaba-IPO price of $55/share and a post-Alibaba-IPO price of $71/share.
- SoftBank is targeted to report operating income of around 1 trillion yen for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, in addition to the upcoming IPO filing of Alibaba.
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Nov. 4, 2014, 4:35 AM
- Troubles at Sprint (NYSE:S) has forced SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) to slash its operating profit forecast, which it now expects to be ¥900B ($7.9B) in the 12 months through March 2015, 10% down from the ¥1T profit it previously estimated.
- The warning came as SoftBank reported that its second-quarter operating profit fell 23%.
- Yesterday, Sprint slashed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $5.8B-$5.9B from $6.7B-$6.9B and announced that it was cutting another 2K jobs.
Aug. 27, 2014, 9:52 AM
- In a revised F-1, Alibaba (Pending:BABA) discloses it had calendar Q2 revenue of $2.54B (+46% Y/Y), and net income of $1.99B (boosted by $1.1B in interest/investment income). Op. income was $1.1B (+27% Y/Y). Revenue growth accelerated from Q1's 39% clip, a figure that had disappointed some investors.
- Q2 free cash flow was $1.71B. Sales/marketing spend +70% Y/Y to $195M; R&D +68% to $315M.
- GMV was RMB501B ($81.6B), +17% Q/Q and +45% Y/Y (46% growth was seen in Q1). Mobile accounted for 32.8% of GMV (up from Q1's 27.4%), and mobile revenue more than doubled Q/Q to $400M.
- Annual orders +14% Q/Q to 14.5B; annual active buyers +9% to 279M; annual active sellers +11% to 8.5M; mobile monthly active users (MAUs) +15% to 188M.
- Alibaba's Taobao marketplace (focused on smaller merchants) had a Q2 GMV of RMB342B, +33% Y/Y. The Tmall marketplace (focused on larger merchants) had a GMV of RMB159B, +81%.
- Yahoo (YHOO +0.3%) is up slightly following Alibaba's release, which might be the company's last earnings update before its IPO.
- Related tickers: OTCPK:SFTBF, OTCPK:SFTBY
Apr. 16, 2014, 4:08 AM
- Alibaba Group (ABABA) could file the prospectus for its U.S. IPO on Monday, Reuters reports, adding that the listing could be worth over $16B.
- The report comes after major shareholder Yahoo (YHOO) disclosed that Alibaba's Q4 net income surged 110% to $1.35B as revenue jumped 66% to $3.06B.
- Alibaba's results helped Yahoo's shares climb 6.8% in AH trading. In Tokyo, shares in SoftBank (SFTBF), which owns 37% in Alibaba, jumped 8.5%.
Feb. 11, 2014, 9:34 AM
- Sprint (S +7.2%) saw a net gain of 682K mobile platform subs in seasonally strong Q4 - 58K postpaid, 322K prepaid, 302K wholesale/affiliate. Though that figure is well below Verizon and T-Mobile's Q4 net adds, and moderately below AT&T's, it represents a turnaround from Q3's 95K net loss (includes a loss 360K postpaid subs).
- The #3 U.S. carrier is also guiding for 2014 adjusted EBITDA of $6.5B-$6.7B, up from a 2013 level of $5.4B and a 2012 level of $4.8B. Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.5%, up from the year-ago period's 10.3%.
- Mobile service revenue rose 2% Y/Y to $7.15B, equipment revenue (phone/tablet sales) rose 15% to $1.16B. SG&A spend was nearly flat at $2.44B.
- Postpaid ARPU was $64.11, down slightly from $64.24 in Q3 and $64.17 a year ago. Postpaid churn rose to 2.07% from 1.99% in Q3 and 1.98% a year ago.
- Sprint's wireline division saw revenue drop 9% to $859M. Its op. income fell to $23M from $71M.
- With parent SoftBank (SFTBF) willing to spend aggressively to improve Sprint's 4G coverage, Sprint has set a 2014 capex budget of $8B, up from a 2013 level of $7.5B and a 2012 level of $5.4B.
- Q4 results, PR
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