Consider Shire Pharmaceuticals Now; 20%+ Upside Left In Takeover Bid By AbbVie
- Our projected takeover valuation of £54 (~$275/ADR) is based on the resulting output of our M&A model using 50% cash/50% stock delivering 3%/7%/8%/11% EPS accretion to ABBV.
- Critically, SHPG will unlock >$18B in cash flow through 2020 for ABBV, and deserves at least some non-cash based valuation for this.
- SHPG has 13-20% upside from current levels and has a tentative floor valuation, as we cannot rule out the possibility of another suitor entering the bidding.
- If the July 18th deadline passes without another offer from ABBV, we anticipate NPSP being acquired by SHPG soon thereafter.