Nov. 12, 2013, 5:45 PM
Nov. 12, 2013, 5:27 PM
- SINA expects Q4 revenue of $190M-$194M, well above a $182.1M consensus. Ad revenue is expected to total $160M-$162M, up from a Q4 2012 level of $110.7M.
- Q3 ad sales rose 26% Y/Y to $151.6M; that's a faster growth rate than Q2's 17%. A major reason: Weibo ad sales jumped 46% Q/Q and 125% Y/Y to $43.7M.
- Non-ad revenue only rose 5% Y/Y to $28.4M, after growing 35% in Q2. The slowdown occurred even though Weibo value-added service revenue rose 26% Q/Q and 121% Y/Y to $9.7M.
- Gross margin jumped to 64% from 54% in Q2 and the year-ago period. Sina says its "efforts to scale its core advertising business profitably" are improving margins.
- Opex rose 23% Y/Y, slightly outpacing rev. growth of 21%. A 29% increase in R&D spend to $36.6M had much to do with the increase.
- SINA +3.4% AH. CC at 8PM ET. Q3 results, PR.
Nov. 12, 2013, 4:46 PM
Nov. 12, 2013, 12:10 AM
Nov. 11, 2013, 5:35 PM
Nov. 7, 2013, 11:48 AM
- Even as Twitter blasts off to a $25B valuation following its much-hyped IPO, U.S. and foreign Internet stocks are giving back some more of the massive 2013 gains that have led many names to trade at steep multiples.
- One sign investors in this space are in a profit-taking mood: Zillow (Z -4.3%) and YY both sold off yesterday in spite of delivering Q3 beats (I, II) and above-consensus guidance; Zillow is adding to its losses today. Likewise, SouFun (SFUN -5.4%) has turned negative after providing a Q3 beat and strong guidance.
- Notable U.S. decliners: FB -2.4%. LNKD -2.8%. GRPN -4.7% (reports after the close). ZNGA -2.7%. P -3.8%. TRLA -5.4%.
- Notable foreign decliners: BIDU -2.4%. QIHU -6.7%. SINA -5% (generally viewed as the Chinese Twitter). DANG -6.2%. VIPS -7.7%. RENN -4.2%. AMAP -4.7%. CTRP -5.7%. YOKU -5.6%. RENN -4.2%. YNDX -5.1%. MELI -2.4% (plunged yesterday thanks to a Q3 miss). SIFY -2.6%.
- Internet/social media ETFs: FDN, PNQI, SOCL
Oct. 29, 2013, 8:21 PM
- Several Chinese Internet names recently pressured by a generally selloff in tech momentum plays are up AH after Baidu beat Q3 estimates on the back of strong growth in ad revenue/customer, and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- SINA +2.3% AH. QIHU +2.1%. YOKU +2%. RENN +2.1%. NTES +2.5%. DANG +1.6%.
- NQ Mobile (NQ) is up 2.5% AH after posting a 25.1% gain in regular trading as investors welcomed its fund transfer announcement.
- Bulls and bears continue to argue fiercely over NQ's prospects. On SA, bearish Goldbaum Research observes NQ's games (offered via its FL Mobile game publishing subsidiary) appear to have been pulled from Apple's App Store, while bullish Toro Investment Partners argues Muddy Waters' track record is quite mixed, and that many firms have had a chance to look at NQ's books.
Oct. 28, 2013, 12:15 PM
- Though the Nasdaq is only down 0.1%, many 2013 Internet, solar, and enterprise software high-flyers are diving once more. Chinese names are well-represented in the group, as NQ Mobile continues crashing thanks to fraud allegations and Sohu plunges due to weak Q4 EPS guidance.
- The WSJ and NYT have each run pieces asking whether a new tech bubble is afoot, at least in certain hot sectors. "People are reaching for growth," says one fund manager quoted by the WSJ. Others argue the fact the high-flyers generally have substantial revenue, and are often profitable, makes the current situation different from the Dot.com bubble.
- Internet decliners: FB -3.4%. MELI -2.8%. GRPN -5%. ZNGA -2.7%. P -2.4%. DANG -7.6%. VIPS -7%. YY -4.8%. QIHU -5.6%. RENN -5.7%. SINA -2.4%. FUEL -4%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -12.4%. FSLR -4.8%. SOL -8.4%. YGE -8%. JASO -6.9%. GTAT -5.4%. SUNE -4.6%. SPWR -4.3%. SCTY -3.8%. STP -8.9%. TSL -13.2%.
- Enterprise decliners: CRM -3.8%. DATA -4.5%. MKTO -5.8%. WDAY -4%. DWRE -3.4%. VEEV -5.1%. IMPV -3.4%.
- Recent declines: I, II.
- Previous: Cashin sees mobile/cloud bubble
Oct. 25, 2013, 4:21 PM
- Chinese Internet and solar stocks, many of which have skyrocketed this year, have closed with decent losses after the Shanghai exchange fell for the fourth day in a row amid credit crunch worries, and as NQ Mobile continued to feel the impact of Muddy Waters' fraud allegations.
- Muddy Waters' detailed accusations regarding ghost addresses, a shell company, inflated market share figures, dubious cash balances, and spyware are likely to yield fresh scrutiny of the financial statements provided by Chinese ADRs, and could also affect the reception given to upcoming IPOs (I, II). Investor concerns about the bookkeeping of U.S.-traded Chinese firms had diminished some this year.
- Chinese Internet decliners: VIPS -9.1%. AMAP -6.1%. YY -6%. QIHU -4.8%. PWRD -5.7%. CYOU -4.7%. SINA -3.8%. LONG -3.5%. YOKU -3%.
- Chinese solar decliners: YGE -12.2%. JKS -9.4%. JASO -9%. DQ -7.2%. TSL -6.8%. CSIQ -4.8%. CSUN -4.4%.
Oct. 22, 2013, 3:54 PM
- After opening higher in sympathy with Netflix, high-flying U.S. and Chinese Internet stocks are closing lower in sympathy with the streaming giant, which is down 8.2% after trading up over 10% AH yesterday in response to its Q3 numbers.
- In addition to Groupon, which has been stung by an ITG Research note, U.S. decliners include Facebook (FB -1.9%), LinkedIn (LNKD -1.7%), Yelp (YELP -2.3%), Zillow (Z -2.5%), and Trulia (TRLA -1%).
- Chinese decliners include Baidu (BIDU -1.6%), Sina (SINA -2.9%), Qihoo (QIHU -3%), Ctrip (CTRP -2.1%), and NQ Mobile (NQ -3.5%).
- Chinese e-commerce plays Vipshop (VIPS -3.7%) and LightInTheBox (LITB -4.9%) are also lower. In addition to the general selloff, they appear to be getting hurt by Dangdang's Q3 warning.
Oct. 18, 2013, 10:29 AM
- "We believe that Google's (GOOG +12.8%) ability to monetize experiences through engagement-based services will allow it to disrupt many hardware and software layers over time," writes Evercore's Ken Sena, exemplifying the glowing analyst commentary that has followed Google's Q3 beat.
- Sena, who is raising his PT to $1,100, sees Google's services investments pressuring near-term margins, but also creating "a stronger platform ecosystem in which more collected data, better predictive analytics, and an increased amount of screen connectivity will lead to better overall search economics in addition to new opportunities."
- Needham and Jefferies have raised their PTs to $1,150, and Deutsche has raised its target to $1,220. YouTube's mobile growth, strong paid click volumes, and the potential for Enhanced Campaigns to lift search ad sales (after doing less damage than expected in Q3) are all mentioned as reasons to stay bullish.
- U.S. Internet peers continue to rally in sympathy: FB +4.1%. LNKD +3.7%. YELP +7.8%. AMZN +3.3%. Z +3.9%. TRLA +4.8%. ZNGA +2.8%.
- Foreign Internet names are also moving higher: BIDU +5%. YOKU +6.9%. SINA +3.7%. RENN +4.4%. QIHU +4.9%. DANG +5.9%. YNDX +4%. SIFY +3.4%.
- Google's Q3 results, details, CC remarks, transcript
Oct. 8, 2013, 11:48 AM
- With the government shutdown having reached day 8, many U.S. and Chinese Internet stocks that have seen giant 2013 gains (often with the help of momentum traders and/or short squeezes) are falling sharply.
- U.S. decliners include Facebook (FB -5.2%), Yahoo (YHOO -5.2%), Netflix (NFLX -4.7%), LinkedIn (LNKD -7%), Zillow (Z -5.3%), Trulia (TRLA -7.5%), Yelp (YELP -9.3%), Groupon (GRPN -4.9%), and Web.com (WWWW -10.2%).
- Chinese decliners include Baidu (BIDU -6.2%), Sina (SINA -7.5%), YY (YY -7.3%), Sohu (SOHU -5.1%), Renren (RENN -9.2%), Youku (YOKU -9.6%), Vipshop (VIPS -6.9%), and Dangdang (DANG -10.7%).
- A chart of the YTD performance of some key names speaks for itself.
Oct. 4, 2013, 12:24 PM
- Chinese Internet firms, already shown plenty of love by momentum traders this year, are rallying again following the release of Twitter's public S-1.
- Chinese microblogging leader Sina (SINA +4%) is among the gainers, and so are fellow social networking plays YY (YY +3.2%) and Renren (RENN +9.7%). But several other names are also taking part in the rally: BIDU +2%. NQ +2.7%. CYOU +6.9%. DANG +4.1%. SOHU +5.4%. SFUN +5.8%. AMAP +3.4%. QIHU +2%.
- Twitter mentioned in its S-1 78% of the 218.3M monthly active users it had at the end of Q2 were outside the U.S. But few of them are in China, where its services (like Facebook's) are generally blocked.
Sep. 24, 2013, 11:11 AM
- In what could be a trial balloon, the Chinese government plans to lift its ban on "politically sensitive" foreign websites in Shanghai's new free-trade zone, according to government sources talking to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post. Facebook (FB +4.7%), Twitter, and the New York Times are among the sites that will reportedly be made accessible.
- In addition, the government plans to allow foreign carriers to bid for licenses to provide Internet services in the free-trade zone. State-owned carriers China Mobile (CHL -0.8%), China Telecom (CHA -1.8%), and China Unicom (CHU -2.8%) have all reportedly been informed foreign companies will be able to compete with them in the area.
- For now, the zone only covers 29 sq. km. But sources state it could eventually cover Shanghai's entire Pudong business district (1,210 sq. km), home to the Shanghai Stock Exchange and arguably China's most vital commercial hub.
- The report comes shortly after Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg met with Chinese Web regulators. China already has a well-developed social networking scene, with Tencent (TCEHY.PK) and SINA claiming hundreds of millions of registered users for their respective platforms.
Sep. 13, 2013, 1:55 PM
- Though Twitter CEO Dick Costolo proclaimed earlier this year he expected the microblogging giant to have 400M monthly active users (MAUs) by the end of 2013 after hitting 200M in Dec. '12, sources tell AllThingsD Twitter currently has ~240M MAUs.
- That implies a 2013 growth rate of less than 4.5M MAUs/month, and suggests Twitter will end the year with ~260M, far below Costolo's target. For reference, Facebook (FB -0.9%) closed Q2 with 1.15B total MAUs (+3.6% Q/Q and +21% Y/Y) and 819M mobile MAUs. Om Malik previously reported Twitter is falling short of Costolo's target, but didn't give a specific number.
- Twitter employees tell AllThingsD their company "has a basic problem with churn — lots of people sample the service, and then stop using it." Twitter is trying to address the problem in part by adding Facebook-like features (such as a conversations view) it hopes will make the service less intimidating to new users. Ironically, this is happening while Facebook tries to become more like Twitter.
- Twitter shareholders GSV Capital (GSVC +14.5%) and the Firsthand Technology Value Fund (SVVC +6.5%) remain up sharply. However, Chinese microblogging leader Sina (SINA -2.4%) has given up yesterday's AH gains.
- More on Twitter's IPO: I, II, III
Sep. 12, 2013, 5:57 PM
SINA vs. ETF Alternatives
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