Mon, Jun. 1, 12:49 PM
- Iconic food and beverage brands continue to grow out of favor with U.S. consumers, according to a new report from Rabobank.
- Many Q1 earnings reports tipped off weakness at well-known F&B brands.
- The bank notes that the increasing purchase power of the millennial generation is a major factor in the shift as e-commerce accounts for a higher mix of purchasing.
- A willingness of major retail chains such as Target (NYSE:TGT), Kroger (NYSE:KR), and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) to attempt to differentiate themselves with new concepts and products has also contributed to well-known brands slipping.
- Rabobank thinks major food and beverage players can still show strong growth rates if they are nimble with their strategy and use M&A wisely to catch fresh brands on the upswing.
- Related stocks: K, GIS, CPB, MDLZ, PEP, KO, HSY, SJM, DPS, KRFT, OTCPK:NSRGY, OTCPK:NSRGF.
Fri, May 15, 12:40 PM
- Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC exited its 10M-share Alibaba (BABA - unchanged) position in Q1, after having upped its stake in the Chinese e-commerce giant in Q4. (13F filing)
- The firm also unloaded its 7M-share position in EMC (EMC -0.1%), which confirmed during the quarter it doesn't plan to spin off VMware, and a 4M-share stake in Williams (WMB +1.3%).
- A 3.3M-share stake was taken in Yum Brands (YUM +3.6%), a 900K-share stake in FedEx (FDX +0.7%), a 1.15M-share stake in J.M. Smucker (SJM -0.1%), and a 626K-share stake in McKesson (MCK). Loeb also respectively took 1.6M-share and 3.5M-share stakes in chipmakers NXP (NXPI +0.2%) and Maxim (MXIM +0.4%).
- Stakes were increased in Delta Air Lines, Actavis, FleetCor, and Roper Technologies, and decreased in Amgen, Ally Financial, eBay, Phillips 66, and Anheuser Busch. Interestingly, a modest 90K-share position was taken in top Alibaba rival JD.com (JD -0.8%).
- Meb Faber observes someone tracking Loeb's top 10 picks since 2000 would have obtained a 12.4% annual return since 2000 (504.8% overall), soundly beating the S&P 500's 4.4% (95.4% overall).
Thu, May 14, 11:05 AM
- The National Weather Service forecasts a continuation of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean late into the year.
- The outlook is consistent with a recent statement from across the ocean by the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
- In the past, El Nino conditions have contributed to drought conditions in Central and South America to impact coffee costs for sellers.
- Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN, OTCQB:JAMN.
- Related ETFs: JO
- El Nino Advisory (.pdf)
Mon, Apr. 20, 2:58 PM
- Pet spending in the U.S. is expected to rise 4.4% to $60.59B this year.
- The food category is seen rising 3.5%, while growth of 4.7% is forecast for the supplies and medicine category.
- Sale of premium food weren't broken out, but is seen outpacing the overall industry.
- Related stocks: FRPT, PETM, SJM, PETS.
Thu, Apr. 16, 5:17 PM
Mon, Apr. 13, 1:06 PM
- Wal-Mart's (WMT) strategy to increasing pricing pressure on suppliers is likely to be felt by some consumer products giants.
- Though larger suppliers have more leverage with Wal-Mart than smaller companies, an impact on margins could still be felt.
- Listed below are the estimated annual revenue and percentage of total revenue derived from the Bentonville retail giant for some CPG firms.
- Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): $12B to mark 14% of total revenue.
- PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP): $8B, 12% of total revenue.
- Kraft Foods (NASDAQ:KRFT): $4.7B, 26% of total revenue.
- Kellogg (NYSE:K): $3.1B, 21% of total revenue.
- Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB): $1.6B, 19% of total revenue.
- J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM): $2.35B, 30% of total revenue.
- Clorox (NYSE:CLX): $1.5B, 26% of total revenue.
- Hillshire Brands (NYSE:TSN): $1.1B, 27% of total revenue.
- Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR): $799M, 17% of total revenue.
- Energizer (NYSE:ENR): $748M, 17.2% of total revenue.
- Tootsie Roll (NYSE:TR): $129M. 23.7% of total revenue.
- Data compiled by the Cincinnati Enquirer
Thu, Mar. 26, 12:37 PM
- Deutsche Bank thinks 3G Capital will be back in the food sector for a major acquisition faster than some other investment firms anticipate.
- 3G put itself in a stronger position to make a major purchase by not adding debt in the Kraft deal.
- Analyst Eric Katzman sees some food names trading with a premium as the 3G shadow hangs over the sector, while others have downside risk with M&A speculation not making as much sense.
- Premium on: ConAgra (NYSE:CAG), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Pinnacle Foods (NYSE:PF), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP).
- Premium off: Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Hormel (NYSE:HRL), Kellogg (NYSE:K), J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM).
- Previously: Investors snapping up food stocks (Mar. 25 2015)
- Previously: Beer fallout from Kraft buyout (Mar. 25 2015)
- Previously: Kraft-Heinz merger has a few ETFs on the move (Mar. 25 2015)
Mon, Mar. 9, 7:37 AM
- Wheat prices took a sharp turn lower last week as traders weighed the large amount of global supply versus a tightening of demand in the U.S.
- Prices have recovered a bit today in front of a Department of Agriculture report, but are expected to see more downward pressure.
- The development should bring some relief for food companies as supplying contracts are reworked.
- Related stocks: SJM, FLO, CAG, POST, CPB, GIS, K, PEP, BUD.
- Related ETF: WEAT.
- Wheat daily price wheat chart.
Mon, Mar. 2, 2:34 PM
- Coffee prices are in retreat as extended rain in Brazil and increased production capacity has helped to soothe the market and push up forecasts on output.
- Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates a sharp drop in bullish bets on coffee as experts now ease off some previous concerns on supply vs. demand.
- Arabica prices are still higher than where they were a year ago.
- There could be a lag factor for many companies to see a benefit from lower coffee commodity costs. Starbucks tipped off during its FQ1 earnings call (transcript) it has 94% of its 2015 coffee needs already priced.
- Arabica coffee price chart
- Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
- Related ETFs: JO
Thu, Feb. 26, 10:42 AM
- Shares of J.M. Smucker (SJM +1%) and Dunkin Brands' (DNKN +2.9%) are both higher after the two companies sign a deal to broaden distribution for Dunkin' Donuts K-cups.
- J.M. Smucker is handling distribution to grocery stores and club chains, while Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR -0.1%) will cover office supply stores and specialty stores.
- Perhaps the most important aspect of the new distribution deal is that Dunkin' K-Cup packs will now be sold online.
- The K-cup shakeup isn't expected by most analysts to have a major impact on Starbucks (SBUX +0.2%) which is also a Keurig partner. Smaller coffee brands could suffer though.
Thu, Feb. 26, 6:48 AM
- Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) and J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) expand a partnership with Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) for the distribution of Dunkin' K-Cup packet to include retailers and grocery store chains nationwide in the U.S. and Canada.
- The current deal between the companies only includes Dunkin' restaurants in the U.S.
- The development should have positive implications for Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR).
- Financial terms of the arrangement weren't disclosed.
Wed, Feb. 18, 4:02 PM
- The International Coffee Organization expects global coffee demand to rise 25% by 2021.
- Expectations for rising demand in China, India, and Latin America is partially behind the strong forecast.
- The coffee market is under pressure currently from tight supply due to crop difficulties in Brazil.
- A sharp drop in the real has counterbalanced the supply shortage to a degree.
- Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
- Related ETFs: JO
Sat, Feb. 14, 10:13 AM
- Craft soda is starting to become a trend to watch closely, according to industry insiders.
- Though still accounting for only ~1% of the total U.S. soda market, major retail chains have increasingly been willing to bet on local craft brands in store aisles.
- The craft craze is old news for the beer industry where coming-of-age millennials buy craft/local beers at a 50% higher rate than brand-loyal older generations. Fading stars such as Budweiser and Bud Light are testament to the impact of the millennial paradigm.
- The craft influence in coffee hasn't been lost on Starbucks which has strategically deployed trucks on college campuses in an effort to win over students.
- Despite the progressive reputation of Starbucks, analysts think new upstarts such as Craft (subscription) and Cups (app) have a shot of gaining influence with the Indie-minded millennial crowd on "customization" and pricing.
- What to watch: An increase in M&A activity in the beverage sector is expected as major companies strategically pick off more local craft brands to incubate.
- Craft beer watch: BUD, OTCPK:SBMRY, TAP, OTCQX:HEINY, SAM, BREW, STZ, OTC:BIBLF, OTCPK:BRBMF.
- Craft coffee watch: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN, QSR, MCD.
- Craft soda watch: PEP, KO, MNST, COT, DPS, OTCQB:JSDA, REED, SODA, FIZZ.
Fri, Feb. 13, 7:54 AM
- J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) warns on continued pressure on its U.S. retail coffee business.
- The company saw a volume decline in Folgers coffee offset gains it made during the quarter with Jif peanut butter, Crisco oils, and fruit spreads in FQ3.
- Revenue growth by segment: U.S. Retail Coffee -1% to $571.8M, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods -2% to $549.5M, International/Foodservice/Natural -3% to $318.7M.
- Price realization added a point of growth during the quarter.
- Gross margin -90 bps to 36.3% as commodity price increase weren't recaptured by price hikes.
- Marketing costs rate -120 bps to 4.2%.
- Operating income rate -30 bps to 17.7%.
- SJM unchanged in early trading.
Fri, Feb. 13, 7:05 AM
Thu, Feb. 12, 5:30 PM
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