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- The historical analysis of the gold-silver ratio shows that silver price should start to grow.
- The value of the gold-silver ratio is almost 75 which is significantly above the long term average.
- The last two tops (2003 and 2008) were just shy of the 80 level and they were followed by significant increases of the silver price (180% and 315%).
- There is a significant potential of another huge gains for the iShares Silver Trust ETF shareholders.
Is The iShares Silver Trust ETF About To Change Course?
- The upcoming FOMC meeting could bring back down SLV.
- The demand for SLV has diminished despite the rally in the silver market.
- The potential recovery of the U.S. dollar could also play a role in bringing down SLV.
The Recovery Of iShares Silver Trust ETF Came To A Halt - What Is Next?
- The recent non-farm payroll report showed a higher than expected gain in number of jobs, which led to the fall in iShares Silver Trust prices.
- The ongoing low long-term treasuries yields are keeping SLV from falling further down.
- The upcoming TLTRO could also bring down the Euro, which may adversely impact the direction of SLV.
- The progress of the U.S. labor market could bring further down SLV.
- The recent Swiss Referendum resulted, as expected, with a rejection of a proposal to boost the central bank’s bullion reserves.
- The developments in the foreign exchange markets seem to have a weaker impact on SLV in recent weeks.
- Few industry outsiders have any access to reliable silver supply and demand information.
- Articles on silver price tend to be written by people with rigid philosophies and/or huge long or short positions.
- A rational approach is to inflation-adjust the price from an earlier long period of extreme price stability.
- But be careful: it's easy to make bad assumptions about what the former market value of silver was.
- The changes in U.S. inflation will keep impacting the direction of SLV.
- The FOMC's upcoming minutes release could shed some light on its next move.
- The progress in U.S. treasuries yields show another angle about the progress of silver.
- The recent Non-farm payroll didn’t reach expectations and coincided with the recovery of SLV.
- The labor market is still doing well to keep pressuring down SLV.
- The demand for SLV hasn’t diminished despite the weakness in the silver market.
- The recent FOMC statement dragged down the price of SLV.
- Bank of Japan’s decision to expand its asset purchase program pulled up the U.S. dollar against the yen, which also coincided with the decline of SLV.
- SLV could see further losses if the U.S. economy keeps recovering.
- The demand for SLV didn’t move much despite the weakness in the silver market.
- SLV has under-performed GLD in the past few weeks.
- Does this ratio suggest SLV offers a better opportunity than GLD?
- The FOMC's meeting this week could impact the direction of SLV.
- The annual production of silver is roughly 800 million ounces, which is a very small amount.
- SLV might have more downside but it's a great time to start buying if you are a long-term investor.
- Given silver's industrial importance, the price needs to be higher to keep the supply strong.
- The uses for silver are only increasing, and that combined with rising investor demand over the next few years make silver a bargain at current levels.
- Since I last recommended flipping the long GLD/short SLV trade the ratio has continued to make new highs.
- The ratio is now overbought and has presented a high probability setup for SLV outperforming GLD in the short term.
- The longer term trend is still up and that has only strengthened but short term, I think it has been overextended.
Do Silver Shorts Know There Is A Physical Supply Deficit?
- Silver had a physical supply deficit of 103 million ounces last year.
- Physical supply deficits in silver cannot persist in the long term.
- Silver is an investment that will require patience.
- Large speculators held a record number of short contracts on COMEX silver.
- Short interest in certain silver stocks are still low compared to last year's December bottom.
- Gold could drag down silver even more if gold cannot hold its support zone.
- Historically, October is usually a poor month for silver.
Silver And The iShares Silver Trust ETF Could Come Further Down
- SLV fell again by 1.7% during last week.
- The recovery of USD and U.S equities coincided with the decline of SLV.
- How the progress of the US economy may impact SLV.
- Cashless society could be reality, not just words.
- Precious metals could gain from the loss of cash.
- Physical metals are preferred in the cashless world, but there are some exchange-traded instruments that provide precious metal exposure.
- Silver, in particular, is an excellent metal to own due to its industrial demand.
- Other investments related to the cashless world.
There are no Transcripts on SLV.
Tue, Sep. 30, 12:07 PM
- The early decline in WTI crude oil has accelerated sharply over the past few minutes, and it's now off 3.5% to $91.25 per barrel, about inline with the lowest pricing seen this year. USO -2.9%
- Moving alongside is heating oil (UHN -1.1%) and gasoline (UGA -3.1%).
- Broad energy ETFs: DBE, RJN, JJE, ONG, RGRE, UBN
- Checking other commodities: Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) is down 3.4%, Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is lower by 1.3%, and Wheat (NYSEARCA:WEAT) is off 1.8%.
- Broad commodity ETFs: DBC, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, GSC, GSP, RGRC, DJCI, LSC, FTGC, DEE, UCI, DYY, CMD, BCM, DDP, UCD, CMDT, SBV, DPU, CSCB, CSCR
Fri, Sep. 19, 4:19 PM
Fri, Sep. 19, 3:58 PM
- Gold’s downward spiral continues as the yellow metal closed today at an eight-month low and finishing its third weekly loss in a row, pressured by the dollar’s move higher after Wednesday's Fed policy meeting.
- The FOMC meeting "maintains our belief that the process of U.S. monetary tightening continues, and this will encourage further advances in long-term real yields and the U.S. dollar," Deutsche Bank said today in a note.
- Meanwhile, several gold mining stocks have hit new 52-week lows, including Barrick Gold (ABX -2.5%), Yamana Gold (AUY -3.7%), Kinross Gold (KGC -2.7%) and Coeur Mining (CDE -3.6%).
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, NUGT, AGQ, IAU, DUST, SIL, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, DSLV, SLVP, DGL, DBS, DGZ, OUNZ, RING, DGLD, AGOL, GGGG, SGDM, PSAU, USV, UBG, BAR, BARS.
Thu, Sep. 18, 8:39 AM
- The strong dollar - it's at its highest vs. the yen since the financial crisis, and performing well against other major currencies as well - for now works as a good excuse for gold's continuing slide.
- Off 1.4% to $1,218 an ounce in morning trade, the yellow metal is lower by nearly 10% since July 4 and closing in on the YTD low of about $1,200 set on January 1.
- Down 2.1% to $18.35 per ounce, silver is at a new low for the year, and roughly back at levels not seen since 2010.
- GLD -0.35%, SLV -0.9% premarket
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, OUNZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, BAR, GYEN, GEUR, BARS, GGBP
Fri, Aug. 15, 10:33 AM
- Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC - formerly part of the old telephone-based system - joined today with newcomer Mitsui & Co. Precious Metals for the first-ever electronic fixing of the daily silver benchmark (it occurred at noon London time).
- Previous to today, the silver fix for decades has been set daily on a private conference call. That system has been replaced by the London Silver Price - run by CME Group and Thomson Reuters in partnership with LBMA. More participants are expected to join in coming week, says the LBMA.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SLVO, DSLV, DBS, USV
Mon, Jul. 14, 11:29 AM
- Precious metals miners are broadly lower as gold futures head for their biggest daily drop of 2014, plunging $29.30, or 2.2%, to $1,308.10/oz.
- Physical demand has remained short of expectations, Commerzbank's Eugen Weinberg says, and India's decision to maintain a 10% import duty on gold and silver likely will dampen future gold demand expectations from the country.
- Barclays, which expects gold to drop to $1,200/oz. by Q3, also expresses caution, saying recent gains across the metals complex look toppy.
- ABX -1.2%, NEM -1.7%, GG -2.4%, KGC -1.8%, AEM -1.4%, AUY -1.4%, EGO -3%, NGD -2.8%, FNV -2.4%, AGI -2.6%, AU -2.2%, IAG -1.9%, GFI -3.4%, BTG -2.1%, NG -0.7%, SLW -2.1%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, NUGT, AGQ, IAU, DUST, SIL, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, DGP, GLDX, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, SLVP, DGL, DBS, GLTR, DGZ, RING, AGOL, DGLD, OUNZ, DBP, GGGG, WITE, PSAU, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, GYEN, GLDL, RGRP, GLDS, GEUR, GGBP, BLNG
Thu, Jul. 10, 7:42 AM
- Portugal's 4% decline today brings its 7-day dive to 11% as the parent of Banco Espirito Santo reportedly is considering bankruptcy protection. Banco Espirito is off 17% today and more than 50% over the last month.
- Spain's IBEX 35 is down 2.4% and Italy's FTSE MIB is lower by 2%.
- Gold is higher by 1.5% to $1,344 per ounce and silver by 2.4% to $21.58.
- In other news, India disappointed gold bulls by leaving in place recent increases in gold import taxes in its just-released annual budget. The previous government over the last two years had boosted the import tax to 10% from 2% and mandated that 20% of imports had to be re-exported.
- GLD +1.1%, SLV +1.9%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GLDL, GLDS, GEUR, GGBP
Tue, Jul. 8, 1:00 PM
- BlackRock chief investment strategist Russ Koesterich isn't buying the last month's 12% bounce in silver, attributing the move instead to the metal's typical volatility. Further, he says H1's drop in real interest rates - a boost to the metal - is unsustainable as the year goes on. "This suggests a tougher second half for precious metals, particularly for gold, which has historically had the stronger relationship with real rates.”
- He also notes the silver-to-gold price ratio as near the historical average, suggesting silver isn't mis-priced, at least as it relates to gold.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SLVO, DSLV, DBS, USV, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Fri, Jun. 20, 4:15 PM
Thu, Jun. 19, 3:10 PM
- A nice-sized rally has turned into a melt-up for the precious metals and the companies that pull them out of the ground. Gold is up 3.9% to $1,319, its highest level in two months, and silver is ahead 5.7% to $20.90. GLD +3.6%, SLV +5.4%
- The gold miners (GDX +4.7%), and the silver miners (SIL +6.1%).
- A dovish interpretation of the FOMC news from yesterday makes for a nice excuse, as does the President's move to send 300 military advisers to Iraq to try and head off an all-out civil war there.
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Gold and silver miner ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GDXJ, DUST, GLDX, JNUG, JDST, RING, GGGG, PSAU, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Thu, Jun. 19, 11:05 AM
- Now up about $30 per ounce since the FOMC announcement, updated Fed economic projections, and Yellen press conference yesterday, gold is just cents away from $1,300.
- Peter Boockvar notes the Fed may be ignoring recent warming inflation data (when pressed on the fast numbers, Yellen called them "noisy"), but gold may not be. In any case - with just 3 FOMC meetings to go until QE is over and rate hike discussions start in earnest - markets will have to keep a close watch on inflation figures in addition to labor market indicators.
- GLD +1.8%, SLV +2.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Earlier coverage of FOMC/Yellen
Thu, Jun. 5, 3:08 PM
- The two - one a pioneer in ETFs, the other a commodities information provider - join the London Metal Exchange and CME Group in vying to provide a replacement for the silver benchmarking process.
- The ETF Securities proposal is based on the company's London-traded silver fund that's physically settled by the LBMA - the group looking for a replacement for the fix. "It's open, it's transparent, every bid and offer that goes into the auction can be audited and supervised," says ETF Chairman Graham Tuckwell.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SLVO, DSLV, DBS, USV
- Previously: CME and LME vie for sliver "fix"
Tue, May. 27, 3:33 PM
- June gold fell to its lowest level in 15 weeks, settling 2% lower $1,265.50/oz., as "everywhere the investor looks, he sees nothing but a negative for gold today." Silver slipped 1.8% to end at $19.07/oz.
- Gold's drop despite increased violence in eastern Ukraine "is a telling sign that more weakness may be on the horizon," says Forex.com's Matt Weller; a shift in tone by Russia, which indicated its willingness to work with the new Ukrainian government and made strides toward a natural gas deal between the two countries, removed another support from the gold market.
- Also a factor is a round of stronger U.S. economic data showing a surprise increase in durable goods orders, improved housing data and rising consumer confidence, which is providing a lift to stocks; the expiration of June gold options also is adding to market volatility.
- Precious metals miners are among the day's weakest stock performers: ABX -3.4%, GG -3.8%, NEM -3.1%, SLW -3.4%, KGC -3.8%, AUY -4.1%, AU -6.5%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Wed, May. 7, 3:11 PM
- Generally upbeat economic comments from Janet Yellen make for a convenient excuse for sizable declines in precious metals today, but then how do we explain lower yields at both ends of the interest rate curve? At 2.62% before Yellen sat down in front of Congress, the 10-year Treasury yield is now down to 2.59%, and the December 2015 Eurodollar contract - as good a proxy for worry over rate hikes as exists - has gained five basis points (higher price means lower chance of hike).
- Maybe more at work could be chatter about a de-escalation of tensions over Ukraine.
- In other news, the China Gold Association reports the country's total Q1 gold consumption at 322.99 metric tons, up 0.8% from a year ago. Consumption of gold bars, however, fell about 44% to 67.954 tons.
- GLD -1.4%, SLV -1.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, GLDI, SLVO, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Mon, Apr. 28, 1:00 PM
- "Silver has the worst story of all the metals," says Archer Financial's Adam Klopfenstein, noting plentiful supplies and its tendency to move alongside gold.
- HSBC expects a 3.4% increase in supply to 1.09B ounces this year alongside flat demand at 938M ounces. Partly fueling the supply growth are prices remaining above the all-in cost of production of $15-$17 per ounce, says the bank's Howard Wn.
- TD's Mike Dragosits, says silver ends its six-year slump in 2014, thanks to a recovering U.S. economy boosting industrial demand for the metal. A Fed being slower than expected on tightening monetary policy should also provide a boost. he says.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, DSLV, SLVO, DBS, USV, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Tue, Apr. 22, 7:55 AM
- Gold and silver equities now appear more fairly valued, Goldman Sachs says, raising its sector coverage view to Neutral as it sees more responsible capital allocation, successful cost cutting initiatives, a refocus on maximizing free cash flow, and sound strategic portfolio optimization improving the positioning of select companies and offsetting its below-consensus outlook for commodity prices ($1,200/oz. gold from 2015 forward).
- The firm upgrades Barrick Gold (ABX) to Buy, believing the company's financial flexibility has significantly improved; ABX +1.8% premarket.
- B2Gold (BTG) is initiated with a Buy rating and C$4.20 price target, as Goldman cites imminent production growth from the Otjikoto project which enhances BTG’s free cash flow generation and should fund future development.
- Started at Neutral: AGI, FNV, BVN,.
- Maintained at Buy: GG, AUY, SLV.
- Sell: IAG, EGO, PAAS.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, JNUG, SLVP, RING, SILJ, JDST, GGGG, PSAU
SLV vs. ETF Alternatives
The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust's expenses and liabilities.
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