Jul. 8, 2014, 1:00 PM
- BlackRock chief investment strategist Russ Koesterich isn't buying the last month's 12% bounce in silver, attributing the move instead to the metal's typical volatility. Further, he says H1's drop in real interest rates - a boost to the metal - is unsustainable as the year goes on. "This suggests a tougher second half for precious metals, particularly for gold, which has historically had the stronger relationship with real rates.”
- He also notes the silver-to-gold price ratio as near the historical average, suggesting silver isn't mis-priced, at least as it relates to gold.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SLVO, DSLV, DBS, USV, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Jun. 20, 2014, 4:15 PM
Jun. 19, 2014, 3:10 PM
- A nice-sized rally has turned into a melt-up for the precious metals and the companies that pull them out of the ground. Gold is up 3.9% to $1,319, its highest level in two months, and silver is ahead 5.7% to $20.90. GLD +3.6%, SLV +5.4%
- The gold miners (GDX +4.7%), and the silver miners (SIL +6.1%).
- A dovish interpretation of the FOMC news from yesterday makes for a nice excuse, as does the President's move to send 300 military advisers to Iraq to try and head off an all-out civil war there.
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Gold and silver miner ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GDXJ, DUST, GLDX, JNUG, JDST, RING, GGGG, PSAU, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Jun. 19, 2014, 11:05 AM
- Now up about $30 per ounce since the FOMC announcement, updated Fed economic projections, and Yellen press conference yesterday, gold is just cents away from $1,300.
- Peter Boockvar notes the Fed may be ignoring recent warming inflation data (when pressed on the fast numbers, Yellen called them "noisy"), but gold may not be. In any case - with just 3 FOMC meetings to go until QE is over and rate hike discussions start in earnest - markets will have to keep a close watch on inflation figures in addition to labor market indicators.
- GLD +1.8%, SLV +2.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Earlier coverage of FOMC/Yellen
Jun. 5, 2014, 3:08 PM
- The two - one a pioneer in ETFs, the other a commodities information provider - join the London Metal Exchange and CME Group in vying to provide a replacement for the silver benchmarking process.
- The ETF Securities proposal is based on the company's London-traded silver fund that's physically settled by the LBMA - the group looking for a replacement for the fix. "It's open, it's transparent, every bid and offer that goes into the auction can be audited and supervised," says ETF Chairman Graham Tuckwell.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SLVO, DSLV, DBS, USV
- Previously: CME and LME vie for sliver "fix"
May. 27, 2014, 3:33 PM
- June gold fell to its lowest level in 15 weeks, settling 2% lower $1,265.50/oz., as "everywhere the investor looks, he sees nothing but a negative for gold today." Silver slipped 1.8% to end at $19.07/oz.
- Gold's drop despite increased violence in eastern Ukraine "is a telling sign that more weakness may be on the horizon," says Forex.com's Matt Weller; a shift in tone by Russia, which indicated its willingness to work with the new Ukrainian government and made strides toward a natural gas deal between the two countries, removed another support from the gold market.
- Also a factor is a round of stronger U.S. economic data showing a surprise increase in durable goods orders, improved housing data and rising consumer confidence, which is providing a lift to stocks; the expiration of June gold options also is adding to market volatility.
- Precious metals miners are among the day's weakest stock performers: ABX -3.4%, GG -3.8%, NEM -3.1%, SLW -3.4%, KGC -3.8%, AUY -4.1%, AU -6.5%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
May. 7, 2014, 3:11 PM
- Generally upbeat economic comments from Janet Yellen make for a convenient excuse for sizable declines in precious metals today, but then how do we explain lower yields at both ends of the interest rate curve? At 2.62% before Yellen sat down in front of Congress, the 10-year Treasury yield is now down to 2.59%, and the December 2015 Eurodollar contract - as good a proxy for worry over rate hikes as exists - has gained five basis points (higher price means lower chance of hike).
- Maybe more at work could be chatter about a de-escalation of tensions over Ukraine.
- In other news, the China Gold Association reports the country's total Q1 gold consumption at 322.99 metric tons, up 0.8% from a year ago. Consumption of gold bars, however, fell about 44% to 67.954 tons.
- GLD -1.4%, SLV -1.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, GLDI, SLVO, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Apr. 28, 2014, 1:00 PM
- "Silver has the worst story of all the metals," says Archer Financial's Adam Klopfenstein, noting plentiful supplies and its tendency to move alongside gold.
- HSBC expects a 3.4% increase in supply to 1.09B ounces this year alongside flat demand at 938M ounces. Partly fueling the supply growth are prices remaining above the all-in cost of production of $15-$17 per ounce, says the bank's Howard Wn.
- TD's Mike Dragosits, says silver ends its six-year slump in 2014, thanks to a recovering U.S. economy boosting industrial demand for the metal. A Fed being slower than expected on tightening monetary policy should also provide a boost. he says.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, DSLV, SLVO, DBS, USV, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Apr. 22, 2014, 7:55 AM
- Gold and silver equities now appear more fairly valued, Goldman Sachs says, raising its sector coverage view to Neutral as it sees more responsible capital allocation, successful cost cutting initiatives, a refocus on maximizing free cash flow, and sound strategic portfolio optimization improving the positioning of select companies and offsetting its below-consensus outlook for commodity prices ($1,200/oz. gold from 2015 forward).
- The firm upgrades Barrick Gold (ABX) to Buy, believing the company's financial flexibility has significantly improved; ABX +1.8% premarket.
- B2Gold (BTG) is initiated with a Buy rating and C$4.20 price target, as Goldman cites imminent production growth from the Otjikoto project which enhances BTG’s free cash flow generation and should fund future development.
- Started at Neutral: AGI, FNV, BVN,.
- Maintained at Buy: GG, AUY, SLV.
- Sell: IAG, EGO, PAAS.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, JNUG, SLVP, RING, SILJ, JDST, GGGG, PSAU
Mar. 24, 2014, 7:57 AM
- Silver Bullion Pte - a Singapore supplier of coins and bars to retail investors - is opening the vault after sales doubled to 1.04M ounces last year, says founder Gregor Gregersen. “While prices dropped last year, we saw physical demand went through the roof." The vault could hold $390M worth of silver at current prices.
- The boosted demand comes not just as the price of silver drops, but as the price drops relative to gold - silver fell 36% last year vs. gold's 28% decline.
- The opening of this vault follows a 200-ton vault opened last summer by a different firm. Storage is now full.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, DSLV, DBS, SLVO, USV
Mar. 20, 2014, 8:00 AM
- Metals continue to lead the way down in commodities following the FOMC results and Yellen press conference. Unless something happens to change the Fed's mind, QE will end this fall and rate hikes are starting about one year from today.
- Gold -1.4% to $1,322 per ounce - as recently as Monday, the metal was challenging $1,400. Silver -2.6% to $20.28. Copper -2.2% to $2.92 per pound. Platinum -1% to $1,437 per ounce. Palladium -2.1% to $752. WTI crude oil slips another 0.4% to $98.76.
- Gold's retreat over the last couple of sessions has wiped out all of March's gain.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, PPLT, PALL, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, GLTR, PTM, DGZ, SLVO, AGOL, DGLD, DBP, WITE, PGM, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, GYEN, RGRP, GEUR, GGBP, BLNG, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Mar. 18, 2014, 5:56 PM
- Silver miners have soared YTD, far outgaining the metal's modest ~10% rise so far and even rising more than gold miners, and CIBC analysts say the shares appear to be "pushing valuation limits."
- While some of the strength in silver equities may have come from expectations that silver will outperform gold after underperforming YTD, the firm is not convinced this actually will happen as it sees potentially disappointing industrial demand for silver; investment demand would need to rise significantly to keep the market from moving into a material surplus in 2014 and after.
- Among individual silver mining stocks, the firm downgrades Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform but raises Pan Am Silver (PAAS) to Sector Perform from Sector Underperform, noting PAAS' strong organic growth potential and its progress in cutting costs and boosting cash flow.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, DSLV, SLVP, DBS, SLVO, SILJ, USV
Mar. 16, 2014, 8:18 PM
- S&P 500 futures are off marginally as - to no one's surprise - the vast majority of voters in the Crimean referendum chose to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. Up next will be Western reaction should Russia move to annex the region. President Obama has authorized financial sanctions and EU ministers meeting tomorrow will discuss asset freezes and visa bans.
- The largest reaction is in precious metals, with gold ahead 0.6% to $1,387 per ounce - the highest since around Labor Day last year. Silver is up 0.6% to $21.55.
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, SLVO, AGOL, DGLD, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, IVV, VOO, SPXU, UPRO, RSP, RWL, EPS, IVW, SPYG, RPG, RPV, SPYV, BXUB, VOOG, VOOV, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB, FTA
Mar. 14, 2014, 9:07 AM
- Quiet amid the macro rumblings of the last 24 hours, gold all of a sudden gets jiggy, popping 0.8% to $1,383 per ounce, the highest price since September.
- The move comes as talks between John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov enter a third hour.
- Putin is prepping to "invade eastern Ukraine," says Estonian Defense Minister Urmas Reinsalu. "The Russian Federation only accepts force ... A clear message needs to be sent that an attack will cost the aggressor dearly.”
- Silver is higher by 2.4% to $21.72 an ounce.
- PM ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
Mar. 12, 2014, 9:08 AM
- A moderate global equity selloff is today's excuse, but something about buying the rumor, selling the news comes to mind as gold gains another 1.4% this morning to $1,365 per ounce, its highest level since last fall. Gold's big move began late last year as the Fed initiated the taper, and continues in 2014 as the central bank presses forward with the wind-down, and trots out a few on the FOMC to float the chance of rate hikes as soon as early 2015.
- GLD +1.4%, SLV +1.5% premarket
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
Mar. 7, 2014, 8:58 AM
- A check of asset markets following what's currently being interpreted as a strong nonfarm payroll report (175K jobs added vs. 154K expected; UE rate up to 6.7%): Flat ahead of the number, stock index futures are up by 0.5%; gold is down 1.1%, silver down 3.2%, copper off 2.9%; the dollar is up a bit, but mostly against the loonie after a weak jobs number in Canada.
- DIA +0.5%, GLD -1%, SLV -2.9%, JJC -3%, UUP +0.15%
- Previously: Treasury yields fly higher after payroll report.
- Related ETFs: GLD, SLV, DIA, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, UUP, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UDN, UGL, DGP, DOG, GLL, DXD, JJC, DZZ, UDOW, UGLD, SDOW, DSLV, DDM, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, DBV, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, FORX, TBAR, UDNT, UUPT, USV, UBG, CPER, GLDE, GYEN, CUPM, GEUR, USDU, GGBP
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