Jun. 19, 2014, 11:05 AM
- Now up about $30 per ounce since the FOMC announcement, updated Fed economic projections, and Yellen press conference yesterday, gold is just cents away from $1,300.
- Peter Boockvar notes the Fed may be ignoring recent warming inflation data (when pressed on the fast numbers, Yellen called them "noisy"), but gold may not be. In any case - with just 3 FOMC meetings to go until QE is over and rate hike discussions start in earnest - markets will have to keep a close watch on inflation figures in addition to labor market indicators.
- GLD +1.8%, SLV +2.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Earlier coverage of FOMC/Yellen
May 27, 2014, 3:33 PM
- June gold fell to its lowest level in 15 weeks, settling 2% lower $1,265.50/oz., as "everywhere the investor looks, he sees nothing but a negative for gold today." Silver slipped 1.8% to end at $19.07/oz.
- Gold's drop despite increased violence in eastern Ukraine "is a telling sign that more weakness may be on the horizon," says Forex.com's Matt Weller; a shift in tone by Russia, which indicated its willingness to work with the new Ukrainian government and made strides toward a natural gas deal between the two countries, removed another support from the gold market.
- Also a factor is a round of stronger U.S. economic data showing a surprise increase in durable goods orders, improved housing data and rising consumer confidence, which is providing a lift to stocks; the expiration of June gold options also is adding to market volatility.
- Precious metals miners are among the day's weakest stock performers: ABX -3.4%, GG -3.8%, NEM -3.1%, SLW -3.4%, KGC -3.8%, AUY -4.1%, AU -6.5%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
May 7, 2014, 3:11 PM
- Generally upbeat economic comments from Janet Yellen make for a convenient excuse for sizable declines in precious metals today, but then how do we explain lower yields at both ends of the interest rate curve? At 2.62% before Yellen sat down in front of Congress, the 10-year Treasury yield is now down to 2.59%, and the December 2015 Eurodollar contract - as good a proxy for worry over rate hikes as exists - has gained five basis points (higher price means lower chance of hike).
- Maybe more at work could be chatter about a de-escalation of tensions over Ukraine.
- In other news, the China Gold Association reports the country's total Q1 gold consumption at 322.99 metric tons, up 0.8% from a year ago. Consumption of gold bars, however, fell about 44% to 67.954 tons.
- GLD -1.4%, SLV -1.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, GLDI, SLVO, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Apr. 22, 2014, 7:55 AM
- Gold and silver equities now appear more fairly valued, Goldman Sachs says, raising its sector coverage view to Neutral as it sees more responsible capital allocation, successful cost cutting initiatives, a refocus on maximizing free cash flow, and sound strategic portfolio optimization improving the positioning of select companies and offsetting its below-consensus outlook for commodity prices ($1,200/oz. gold from 2015 forward).
- The firm upgrades Barrick Gold (ABX) to Buy, believing the company's financial flexibility has significantly improved; ABX +1.8% premarket.
- B2Gold (BTG) is initiated with a Buy rating and C$4.20 price target, as Goldman cites imminent production growth from the Otjikoto project which enhances BTG’s free cash flow generation and should fund future development.
- Started at Neutral: AGI, FNV, BVN,.
- Maintained at Buy: GG, AUY, SLV.
- Sell: IAG, EGO, PAAS.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, JNUG, SLVP, RING, SILJ, JDST, GGGG, PSAU
Mar. 20, 2014, 8:00 AM
- Metals continue to lead the way down in commodities following the FOMC results and Yellen press conference. Unless something happens to change the Fed's mind, QE will end this fall and rate hikes are starting about one year from today.
- Gold -1.4% to $1,322 per ounce - as recently as Monday, the metal was challenging $1,400. Silver -2.6% to $20.28. Copper -2.2% to $2.92 per pound. Platinum -1% to $1,437 per ounce. Palladium -2.1% to $752. WTI crude oil slips another 0.4% to $98.76.
- Gold's retreat over the last couple of sessions has wiped out all of March's gain.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, PPLT, PALL, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, GLTR, PTM, DGZ, SLVO, AGOL, DGLD, DBP, WITE, PGM, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, GYEN, RGRP, GEUR, GGBP, BLNG, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Mar. 16, 2014, 8:18 PM
- S&P 500 futures are off marginally as - to no one's surprise - the vast majority of voters in the Crimean referendum chose to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. Up next will be Western reaction should Russia move to annex the region. President Obama has authorized financial sanctions and EU ministers meeting tomorrow will discuss asset freezes and visa bans.
- The largest reaction is in precious metals, with gold ahead 0.6% to $1,387 per ounce - the highest since around Labor Day last year. Silver is up 0.6% to $21.55.
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, SLVO, AGOL, DGLD, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, IVV, VOO, SPXU, UPRO, RSP, RWL, EPS, IVW, SPYG, RPG, RPV, SPYV, BXUB, VOOG, VOOV, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB, FTA
Mar. 14, 2014, 9:07 AM
- Quiet amid the macro rumblings of the last 24 hours, gold all of a sudden gets jiggy, popping 0.8% to $1,383 per ounce, the highest price since September.
- The move comes as talks between John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov enter a third hour.
- Putin is prepping to "invade eastern Ukraine," says Estonian Defense Minister Urmas Reinsalu. "The Russian Federation only accepts force ... A clear message needs to be sent that an attack will cost the aggressor dearly.”
- Silver is higher by 2.4% to $21.72 an ounce.
- PM ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
Mar. 12, 2014, 9:08 AM
- A moderate global equity selloff is today's excuse, but something about buying the rumor, selling the news comes to mind as gold gains another 1.4% this morning to $1,365 per ounce, its highest level since last fall. Gold's big move began late last year as the Fed initiated the taper, and continues in 2014 as the central bank presses forward with the wind-down, and trots out a few on the FOMC to float the chance of rate hikes as soon as early 2015.
- GLD +1.4%, SLV +1.5% premarket
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
Mar. 7, 2014, 8:58 AM
- A check of asset markets following what's currently being interpreted as a strong nonfarm payroll report (175K jobs added vs. 154K expected; UE rate up to 6.7%): Flat ahead of the number, stock index futures are up by 0.5%; gold is down 1.1%, silver down 3.2%, copper off 2.9%; the dollar is up a bit, but mostly against the loonie after a weak jobs number in Canada.
- DIA +0.5%, GLD -1%, SLV -2.9%, JJC -3%, UUP +0.15%
- Previously: Treasury yields fly higher after payroll report.
- Related ETFs: GLD, SLV, DIA, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, UUP, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UDN, UGL, DGP, DOG, GLL, DXD, JJC, DZZ, UDOW, UGLD, SDOW, DSLV, DDM, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, DBV, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, FORX, TBAR, UDNT, UUPT, USV, UBG, CPER, GLDE, GYEN, CUPM, GEUR, USDU, GGBP
Feb. 28, 2014, 4:29 PM
Feb. 25, 2014, 2:58 PM
- Pan American Silver (PAAS -1.9%) is downgraded to Sell from Neutral with a $10 price target at Goldman Sachs, which forecasts silver at $21.80/oz. from 2015 onwards, driven by a lack of supply-side response.
- While PAAS has a strong balance sheet, the revised silver price deck suggests the company's ability to generate free cash flow is limited, the firm says.
- ETFs: SLV, AGQ, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, DSLV, DBS, SLVO, USV.
Feb. 14, 2014, 9:10 AM
- "We continue to expect further gains over the course of 2014, helped by strong demand from China and an eventual easing of the import ban in India," says Capital Economics' Julian Jessop. "In the meantime, safe-haven demand for gold has revived a little as a result of the turmoil in emerging markets.”
- Up 1.2% to $1,315 per ounce, gold is ahead more than 4% on the week and over 9% YTD. The metal has also crossed its 200-day moving average, which could force technical buying, writes the team at Commerzbank.
- The $1,200 level is one of strong support, says Jessop, noting it's where gold stabilized during its bear market last year and it's at that price where a significant number of gold mines become unprofitable. He continues to forecast a price of $1,450 for year-end.
- Also having a big day is silver, up 3.4% to $21.08.
- GLD +1.1%, SLV +2.9% premarket
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
Feb. 7, 2014, 4:42 PM
Feb. 3, 2014, 10:26 AM
- Gold is up 1.8% to $1,262 per ounce and silver 1.9% to $19.49 following the big miss in the ISM report as traders contemplate maybe a slowdown in the taper, and some bulls dream about a QE4. Up 1.5% at the moment the Gold Miners ETF is ahead 12.9% YTD.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is off 3 basis points to 2.62% and the December 2016 Eurodollar contract is up 9 basis points to 97.99 - suggesting a slower pace of rate hikes, but still pricing in a Fed Funds rate 175 basis points higher than it is today.
- Gold and sliver-related ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, DUST, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, SLVP, GLTR, DGZ, AGOL, JNUG, DBP, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, SLVO, WITE, SILJ, PSAU, JDST, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, RGRP, BLNG
Jan. 31, 2014, 4:33 PM
Jan. 29, 2014, 9:49 AM
- As equities open in a broad-based decline, precious metals miners show early strength: ABX +4.1%, NG +4.1%, EXK +3.7%, GG +3.7%, IAG +3.3%, SA +2.9%, AG +2.8%, SSRI +3.1%, AUY +2.7%, GOLD +2.5%, NEM +2.3%, MVG +2.3%, SLW +2.2%, PAAS +2.2%, AU +2.1%, KGC +2.2% (Briefing.com).
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, DUST, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, SLVP, GLTR, DGZ, AGOL, DBP, JNUG, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, SLVO, WITE, SILJ, PSAU, TBAR, JDST, USV, UBG, JJP, RGRP, BLNG.
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