Central Sun Mining Inc. (SMC)
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By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
Mark Twain: "I'd have written you a shorter letter if I had more time."Whatever you have to say, it doesn't need this many words. Reply
By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
Great read! The numbers dont lie - if you like it or not. This article really gives a new perspective, keep going.Thanks Reply
By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
Regression analysis is a joke Replyinvestor
By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
Very detailed and interesting. just what I needed. Thank you.Reply
By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
That's the search: to find a precious metal stock that tracks the metal price! People ruin it. Whatever happened with Sunshine Mining? If I only knew! Just follow your cat's example: watch, watch, watch. (the cat doesn't get fat by watching though). From Mexico to Canada, they mine metal: refining, getting the managers, (and paying for both) there is the rub! ReplyBy the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
Could it be that the stocks are pricing in a potential fall in the values of these metals? ReplyBy the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
wool-pulling analysis will impress some people... ReplyBy the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
Thank you for the handy calculator!I'm not too interested in betting on gold, but I wonder if you have developed similar ways of calculating the value of iron/copper/nickel mining stocks?
Reply
By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued [view article]
The suggested stocks are yet more homework, the conclusion I agree with completely. Interesting mathematics. Thank you. ReplyCentral Sun Mining: When the Dust Settles, Juniors Will Shine [view article]
This analysis cracked me up. The author notes that when the juniors do recover, buyers will be more selective. He explains that investors should therefore avoid suspicious political jurisdictions such as Ecuador, Congo or Venezuela. However, in the next paragraph, he recommeds Central Sun Mining, a company operating in Nicaragua(?!). Who wants to invest in Nicaragua in this investment climate?Moreover, why bother with an investment in Nicaragua when you can get resource growth (128M Ag. equiv resource at year-end 2007 and 300M Ag. equiv resource guided for year-end 2008), production expansion (4M oz. Ag-equiv produced in 2007 and 5.4M oz. Ag-equiv guided for 2008), political safety (Mexico), seasoned management (CEO Keith Neumeyer was a founding president of First Quantum, a multi-billion dollar resource company) and first-ever earnings delivery (Blackmont Capital forecasts $0.32 per share in 2008) at FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER (TSX:FR). Now there's a stock institutions will flock to when juniors start to move this year. You can take that to the bank. Reply
General Discussion on SMC
Actually I would rate SMC as a strong buy. I share the author's view that SCM has all the necessary ingredients with acceptable risk - even though some mistakes have happened (but I dont know of any mining company that always fullfilled its targets on time and without problems....)On May 16 06:00 AM SeekingAlpha Editors wrote:
> Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
Central Sun Mining: When the Dust Settles, Juniors Will Shine [view article]
Obviously we have some sore losers here posting. Actually the reverse split was smart strategy in the end as more institutions & funds will invest in a $2 rather than $.30 stock. What happened at Bellavista really hurt SMC in the present but the management handled it like a responsible professional company. In fact it might have benn for the best as Bellavista was getting bad publicity from the enviromentalists/tree huggers.I've held traded and held shares of this company for 3 years and I'm willing to hold for another 3 years. I'm up about 50% due to adding shares when they were cheap. I believe SMC will be a $5 stock if not more by summer 2009. I agree with the author of the article as Central Sun will have it's day to shine in the sun! Reply
Central Sun Mining: When the Dust Settles, Juniors Will Shine [view article]
Obviously you lost money with Glencairn - but if I understand the author's opinion right, he thinks Central Sun is a good turn around play with considerable upside, right? If you value turn around situations than you have to check the changes a company made instead of what happend in the past. As for Bellavista - to my knowledge the mine had to be closed because the leach pads began to move - that's a ecological problem and I doubt if anybody could foresee something like this. Anyway, Peter and the new team (which is in my opinion the key and I do agree with the author in this respect) have done the right changes, converting Orosi from heap leaching to milling and improve production greatly. The restructering was the only way to bring the company back on track - there are only few companies with this kind of performance in the last 6 months. In my opinion the new team is the key - they have Forbes & Manhatten involved, which is a pool of highly respected mining professionals. Remember they did (this includes Peter), Desert Sun Mining! this company was acquired by Yamana Gold for over 700m $. They also did Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines (CLM) or Largo Resources (LGO) - LGO just entered into an off-take agreement with Glencore. This group has great success - CSM is also benefiting. I do like the story and I think, CSM is a easy double if the can achieve their production target in 2009. But you're right there are many nice investment opportunities around - the article made it pretty clear - but again I also got burned with early stage companies and low scale producers....I dont touch companies with less than 100k ounces p.a. production any longer...... ReplyCentral Sun Mining: When the Dust Settles, Juniors Will Shine [view article]
Any time a manager like Peter T. screws the old shareholders to give the bulk of the company's assets to investors with new money to pay for his mistakes, he has little incentive to perform.If Peter T. screws up again, he will do the same trick again and again.
The failure of Glencairn should have included Peter T. resigning or being fired by the board.
Plenty other places to risk your money. Not with a management that screwed the shareholders before. Reply
Central Sun Mining: When the Dust Settles, Juniors Will Shine [view article]
Halfway true, Glencairn Gold messed up with Bellavista in Costa Rica - this was the reason the stock dived and the company had to be restructured. BUT this was really bad luck - Orosi and Limon are the core mines and the new management team is doing a great job there. Just remember Peter is the former COO at Yamana's Jacobina mine (producing 145k in 2008) he is a great engineer. If you check out the new management and board of directors you will figure out that they have a great team together. Sometimes a company deserves a second chance, especially if they are on the right track again. CSM is a major recovery story IMO - sure market is still sceptical if they can achieve their production target in 2009, thats the reason for the discount vs peers. Lets see how they progress. Reply