Seeking Alpha
 

Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

- NYSEARCA
  • Thu, Jan. 8, 4:18 PM
    • Hit hard on Tuesday amid a market rout, chip stocks have more than made up for it today: The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX +3%) handily exceeded the Nasdaq's 1.8% gain. The index posted a 1% gain yesterday.
    • Micron (MU +4.9%) has been one of the standouts, more than recouping yesterday's post-earnings losses. Ditto Freescale (FSL +9.2%), which benefited from a Deutsche target hike, and Marvell, which got a lift from an MKM note. Others: NVDA +3.8%. NXPI +4.7%. AVGO +5%. SWKS +4.5%. CY +6.1%. CODE +5.9%. CAVM +5.2%. SWKS +4.5%. SLAB +4.5%. KLIC +3.8%. SMTC +3.6%. ATML +3.7%. FCS +4.2%. TSEM +4.2%.
    • As is their custom, both chipmakers and their clients have been unveiling plenty of new products at CES.
    • ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 7 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 6, 1:36 PM
    • Up 30% in 2014, the Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX -2.2%) has fallen over 4% thus far in 2015. Today's decline comes as the Nasdaq drops 1.6%.
    • Many names are posting 3%+ losses. SWKS -4.2%. QRVO -5.8%. AMAT -3.4%. KLAC -3.1%. SYNA -5.4%. IPHI -9%. ARMH -5.4%. SIMO -4.5%. MCRL -3.9%. AMCC -3.9%. CODE -5.1%. CY -4.6%. QUIK -7.9%.
    • This morning, Gartner estimated global chip sales rose 7.9% in 2014 to $339.8B, a little less than the 9.4% recently estimated by IHS. Sell-side firms have forecast industry growth will fall to the ~5% range in 2015.
    • Gartner thinks memory sales rose 16.9%, fueled by a 31.7% increase in DRAM sales. All other chip markets rose by 5.4%, a marked improvement from 2013's 0.8%. Intel (15% share) and Samsung (10.4%) claimed over a quarter of industry sales between them. Qualcomm (5.6%), Micron (4.9%), and SK Hynix (4.7%) rounded out the top-5.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 3 Comments
  • Dec. 3, 2014, 1:48 PM
    • The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX +1.7%) is making fresh highs after Microchip (MCHP +4.1%) slightly upped its calendar Q4 guidance, and stated it continues to "see an improvement in our bookings and billings since our earnings call on October 30, 2014."
    • Chip stocks had also jumped following that earnings call, during which Microchip said it believed the inventory correction that triggered an Oct. 9 warning (and a major chip stock selloff) was mostly over. While a slew of chipmakers provided soft Q4 guidance after Microchip's warning, fears of a major correction didn't pan out.
    • The group outperformed a bit yesterday after Cypress (CY +2.9%) announced it's merging with Spansion (CODE +2.5%), continuing the chip industry's consolidation wave. Several firms have upgraded Cypress and/or Spansion in response, praising the deal's cost synergies.
    • Notable gainers include not only chipmakers, but also chip equipment, test/assembly, and IP licensing firms: ARMH +3.8%. AMBA +3%. MX +9%. MXIM +4.2%. AMCC +3.5%. ADI +3.1%. SIMG +3.7%. AMKR +4.2%. SPIL +3.3%. SYNA +2.7%. ATML +3.7%. ENTR +3.8%. AMAT +2.7%. KLAC +2.5%.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    • Last week: Chip stocks rally after ADI's earnings
    | 10 Comments
  • Nov. 26, 2014, 2:52 PM
    • Chip stocks are outperforming after Analog Devices (ADI +5.2%) beat FQ4 estimates and offered in-line FQ1 guidance. The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX +1.9%) has made new highs.
    • Notable gainers include many analog/mixed-signal and telecom IC firms: TXN +3%. LLTC +2.7%. SMTC +3.1%. ISIL +3.3%. SWKS +3.7%. AVGO +2.9%. OVTI +3.2%. FSL +3.1%. EZCH +2.5%. XLNX +2.3%. ALTR +2.1%. MX +4.3%. PMCS +2.7%. BRCM +2%.
    • On its CC (transcript), ADI noted its telecom equipment chip sales are holding up well in spite of weak capex, aided by the fact its dollar content for 4G base stations is "at least 20% to 30% better" than for 3G base stations. The company also mentioned its lead times were stable in FQ4.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 31, 2014, 11:31 AM
    • Three weeks after providing a calendar Q3 warning that triggered a massive chip stock rout, Microchip (MCHP +7.3%) has provided Q4 guidance that's in-line with lowered estimates. The microcontroller vendor, which has often seen trends emerge ahead of peers, also said it saw most of its inventory correction in Q3, and expects Q4 sales to be just "slightly below typical seasonal levels."
    • Chip stocks are up strongly (SOXX +4%) on a day the Nasdaq is up 1.4%. Since Microchip's warning, a slew of analog chipmakers and microcontroller firms (e.g. Atmel, Freescale, STMicro, Intersil, Linear) have offered light Q4 guidance, and other firms have reported seeing high-end Android weakness (e.g. Synaptics, Cirrus Logic, Amkor).
    • On the other hand, several mobile chipmakers (Skyworks, RF Micro, TriQuint, Silicon Motion), some of which have decent iPhone exposure, have provided strong results and/or guidance. Other chipmakers, such as Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and Xilinx, have rallied after delivering in-line guidance.
    • Susquehanna's Chris Caso: "By now, we think it’s clear that the weakness MCHP saw in September is not company specific ... The question now is if the full extent of the weakness has been dialed into estimates. If it has, then this would be among the shortest and mildest downturns in many years."
    • Notable gainers: SNDK +3.9%. MU +4.1%. AMAT +3.9%. TXN +4.7%. NXPI +3.9%. NVDA +3.5%. MXIM +4.7%. LLTC +5.1%. FCS +9.6%. FSL +8.8%ADI +6.5%. TQNT +6.8%. RFMD +6.5%. ATML +5.9%. AVGO +5.1%. MRVL +4.7%. AMCC +8.9%. BRCM +3.6%. TSM +4.4%. ARMH +3.3%.
    • Intel (INTC +3.5%) has recovered most of the losses it saw yesterday due to Intesil's (ISIL +3.3%) results and guidance, and related comments about a PC chip inventory correction.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 17 Comments
  • Oct. 10, 2014, 1:42 PM
    • Following Microchip's warning and related prediction of a chip industry correction, Goldman's James Covello thinks there's 15%-20% downside in industry names.
    • Covello, who lowered his industry view to Cautious in August: "The last time Microchip negatively preannounced was October 15, 2012 (3% sales miss). Between October 1 and December 31, Street 2013 sales estimates for the Semi group were revised down 6% on average."
    • He adds several datapoints suggest the industry has been overheating. Among them: Semi revenue growth has outpaced end-market growth, and supply chain inventory dollars rose 3% more than their 3-year average in Q2.
    • "Nobody will be spared," predicts Hedgeye's Craig Berger. Benchmark's Gary Mobley observes 5 of the 6 chip stocks to have made Q3 pre-announcements have thus done so to the downside.
    • Worth noting: Mobile chipmaker Silicon Motion (SIMO -8.9%) is the one chipmaker to have positively pre-announced. It might not be a coincidence that Microchip has relatively low mobile exposure.
    • Observing U.S. macro data remains positive even as China and Europe soften, Longbow's JoAnne Feeney remains bullish long-term on select names. However, she has cut her short-term rating on Linear (LLTC -3.8%) to Sell, and removed IDT (IDTI -7.1%) from her trading long list.
    • In addition to the names previously mentioned, the following chip stocks are seeing steep losses: AMD -5.1%. FCS -13.6%. NXPI -11.2%. CODE -11%. LSCC -9.6%. SIMG -8.1%. IPHI -7.7%. ISIL -9.5%. CY -6.9%. RMBS -7.1%. QUIK -5.7%. SQNS -5.1%. IMOS -6.5%.
    • Foundries and contract manufacturers are also selling off: TSM -3.9%. UMC -2%. SMI -2.4%. SANM -11.7%. FLEX -6.8%. JBL -4%.
    • Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 44 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2014, 4:37 PM
    • Microchip (NASDAQ:MCHP) expects FQ2 revenue of $546.2M, below prior guidance of $560M-$575.9M and a $567.9M consensus.
    • CEO Steve Sanghi: "The month of September is usually a strong month for our revenue after the summer holiday period. This time, the September sales did not materialize to our expectations. The revenue miss was led by China where the September quarter is traditionally the strongest."
    • Sanghi also highlights Microchip's status as a bellwether for the chip industry, due to its 80K+ customers and recognition of distributor revenue based on sell-through to customers rather than distributor sell-in. "We believe that another industry correction has begun and that this correction will be seen more broadly across the industry in the near future."
    • MCHP -8.1% AH.
    • Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 8 Comments
  • Aug. 18, 2014, 9:24 AM
    • Following a strong 2014 rally fueled by healthy industry growth and hopes for more consolidation, Goldman has lowered its rating for the semi industry to Cautious from Neutral.
    • The firm thinks industry shipment growth will slow down, and sees risk to Q4 estimates. InvenSense (NYSE:INVN) has been cut to Neutral, NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) to Sell, and Maxim (NASDAQ:MXIM) to Buy from Conviction Buy.
    • Benchmark aired cautious remarks about the sector last month, noting supply chain inventories have been rising and Taiwanese electronics growth (seen as a proxy for chip demand) has been slowing down.
    • Regarding InvenSense, analyst Mark Delaney notes shares have hit Goldman's $25 target and have soundly outperformed the S&P 500 since being added to Goldman's Americas Buy list near the end of 2011. He adds a key near-term catalyst (share gains at Apple) has played out.
    • INVN -2.4%. NXPI -3.3%.
    • Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 4 Comments
  • Jul. 23, 2014, 12:25 PM
    • Among the year's best tech performers, chip stocks are selling off (SOXX -1.8%) on an up day for the Nasdaq following weak numbers from FPGA giant Xilinx (XLNX -14.5%).
    • Xilinx missed FQ1 revenue estimates by over $18M, and also guided for FQ2 revenue to be well below consensus. The company blamed the FQ1 shortfall on soft defense and wireless sales. BMO and BofA/Merrill have downgraded Xilinx; the former thinks Xilinx's 28nm share might be peaking.
    • Xilinx stated on its CC (transcript) the wireless weakness was mostly due to soft 28nm chip sales to Chinese 4G base station vendors; Chinese 4G rollouts have long been viewed as a catalyst for both Xilinx and Altera (ALTR -4.7%). Aerospace/defense sales were hurt by program timing issues.
    • Meanwhile, switch/router vendor Juniper offered light Q3 guidance to go with a Q2 beat. The company noted on its CC (transcript) "market dynamics" for U.S. carriers, including M&A activity, are affecting project rollouts.
    • Also: Analog/mixed-signal IC vendor Linear (LLTC -4.1%) is selling off in spite of beating FQ4 estimates and guiding in-line (8%-11% Y/Y FQ1 rev. growth vs. 9.1% consensus).
    • Notable decliners: FSL -5.3%. IDTI -6.4%. EZCH -3.3%. PMCS -4.3%. LSCC -6.8%. CAVM -4.7%. SMTC -4.1%. ATML -3.2%. TQNT -3.1%. RFMD -2.9%. IRF -2.9%.
    • Qualcomm, NXP, TriQuint, and Cirrus Logic report after the bell.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 2 Comments
  • Jun. 9, 2014, 10:36 AM
    • A slew of chip stocks are rallying following Analog Devices' (ADI +5.9%) $2B deal to acquire RFIC vendor Hittite Microwave.
    • The purchase is part of an M&A wave that has hit the semiconductor industry over the last 12 months, as chipmakers try to gain scale, cut opex, and grow their cross-selling opportunities by consolidating. Other deals: RF Micro/TriQuint, Avago/LSI, Microchip/ISSC.
    • ADI, which shares many telecom equipment, defense/aerospace, and automotive clients with Hittite, predicts Hittite's RF, microwave, and millimeter wave ICs will complement its RF and signal-conversion (ADC/DAC) products.
    • Several RF and analog/mixed signal chipmakers are higher, but they're not the only gainers: RFMD +1.8%. TQNT +1.8%. PSMI +2.5%. LLTC +1.6%. MSCC +2.1%. IDTI +3.8%. ATML +3.4%. IRF +1.4%. SIGM +3.9%. AMCC +3.8%.
    • Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | Comment!
  • May. 19, 2014, 10:26 AM
    • In a bullish call on chip stocks, RBC's Doug Freedman has upgraded Nvidia (NVDA +2.9%), Broadcom (BRCM +1.8%), Micron (MU +3.3%), Texas Instruments (TXN +1.3%), and Altera (ALTR +1.8%) to Outperform.
    • Freedman sees the industry's free cash flow profile improving as it transitions "into a more mature era," and companies embrace more "shareholder-friendly capital-allocation strategies."
    • Nvidia, TI, and Altera have already announced major cash-return efforts in recent years. TI has promised to return all of its FCF to shareholders, save for funds needed to pay down debt.
    • Micron (just digested Elpida) and Broadcom have been more cautious, though the latter did hike its dividend in January.
    • Freedman downgraded Micron on Jan. 3, when shares were at $21.66. He was bullish during the company's big 2012/2013 rally.
    • Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | 1 Comment
  • Apr. 16, 2014, 1:47 PM
    • Though the Nasdaq is up 0.7%, many chip stocks are heading in the opposite direction (SOXX -0.6%) after Intel provided mixed Q1 top-line numbers for its business units - server chip sales were healthy, mobile sales were weak, and PC sales were in between - ASML lowered its 1H14 sales outlook and provided cautious 2H remarks (has dinged many chip equipment stocks), and Linear offered somewhat soft March quarter guidance.
    • Notable decliners: CRUS -3.3%. ENTR -3.3%. QUIK -2.4%CAVM -2%. PSMI -3.6%. ADI -2.3%. TXN -1.4%. MXIM -1.5%. FCS -1.5%. The last four companies all compete against Linear.
    • Himax (HIMX -1.5%) is off after Chardan Capital lowered its PT to $9 from $12; the firm downgraded Himax in January. Shares tumbled on Monday, then ticked higher on Tuesday following a Q1 pre-announcement.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | Comment!
  • Apr. 15, 2014, 1:49 PM
    • While broader equity markets are only seeing modest declines, tech stocks aren't so lucky. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ -0.8%) had its lowest print since October this morning before recovering slightly.
    • Chinese tech stocks (KWEB -4.3%), including 2013 solar high-flyers (TAN -4.2%), are especially hard-hit following a Shanghai selloff triggered by PBOC withdrawals. Other Internet (PNQI -2.3%) and social media (SOCL -2%) stocks aren't faring much better.
    • Will earnings season come to the rescue? Intel and Yahoo report after the bell today, and Google and IBM after the bell tomorrow.
    • Tech ETFs: XLK, VGT, FDN, ROBO, SOXL, SKYY, TECL, USD, SMH, IPK, IYW, ROM, TDIV, SOXS, SOXX, KWT, TECS, XSD, IXN, IGV, FTEC, RYT, IGM, PXN, QTEC, PSCT, FXL, IGN, PSI, SSG, MTK, REW, PXQ, XSW, FONE, PSJ, AAIT, PTF, CQQQ, QQQC
    • Update: Tech stocks rallied in the final hours of trading. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Feb. 26, 2014, 11:24 AM
    • Chip stocks are outperforming (SOXX +1.1%) after Avago (AVGO +5.1%) posted an FQ1 beat and strong margin numbers (albeit while guiding light, as many expected), and STMicroelectronics (STM +3.9%) exec Paul Grimme states his company's European sales are stabilizing, with Germany leading the way.
    • Notable winners: AMBA +5.4%. AMCC +5.2%. CRUS +3.3%. SWKS +3%. QUIK +4.1%. INVN +2.7%. RFMD +3.5%. TQNT +3%. SIMO +2.7%. CAVM +3.6%. Nearly all of the aforementioned names have strong mobile and/or telecom equipment exposure.
    • RBC has hiked its Avago PT to $66 from $64, and says the chipmaker remains its "top play on China and global LTE deployments." With LSI in tow, the firm thinks FY15 (ends Oct. '15) EPS will top $5.
    • Morgan Stanley ($68 PT) is confident Avago can raise LSI's op. margin to 30% from 17% over the next few years, much as the company has doubled its own op. margin to 30% post-LBO.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | Comment!
  • Jan. 14, 2014, 5:42 PM
    • PC industry names outperformed amid a broader tech rally, aided by a JPMorgan Intel (INTC +4%) note that argued PC demand is stabilizing, and tablet cannibalization diminishing. A number of chip stocks also rallied strongly (SOXX +2.1%).
    • Also: Major hard drive suspension assembly maker Hutchinson has reported above-consensus Dec. quarter sales, while citing strong demand for 2.5" notebook drive assemblies. Seagate and Western Digital both rallied.
    • JPMorgan's Christopher Danely, who upgraded Intel to Overweight, has raised his 2014 estimates soundly above consensus ahead of the chip giant's Thursday Q4 report. Danely notes Intel, Microsoft, H-P, and others have said PC demand is improving, and that Taiwan's big-4 notebook contract manufacturers collectively grew their shipments 7% Q/Q in Q4. Q1 shipments are expected to drop in-line with seasonality.
    • He also points out tablet shipment growth is decelerating, and forecasts shipments will only rise 25% in 2014 (down from 53% in 2013).
    • Danely's optimism contrasts with another bearish Intel note from Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon, who estimates five mobile CPU sales are needed to make up for one PC CPU sale, and doubts Intel's foundry business will move the needle.
    • PC industry gainers: MSFT +2.3%. HPQ +2.6%. AMD +4.1%. NVDA +3.1%.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    • Previous: Goldman on Intel's Q4, Gartner/IDC's Q4 PC estimates, Intel's light 2014 guidance
    | 14 Comments
  • Dec. 17, 2013, 2:57 PM
    • Avago (AVGO +7.6%) is now up 18% (good for a $2.1B increase in market cap) since announcing a $6.6B deal to acquire LSI yesterday morning. Many of its chip industry peers have also rallied; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX +1.2%) is up 2.5% over the last two days.
    • The sharply contrasting nature of Avago and LSI's product lines - Avago depends heavily on RF and optical component sales, while LSI depends on storage controllers/adapters and network processors - could be fueling hopes other chipmakers will use M&A to expand their product lines and achieve greater scale.
    • Today's notable gainers include EZchip (EZCH +6.7%), OmniVision (OVTI +3.6%), Skyworks (SWKS +3%), Cavium (CAVM +3%), Audience (ADNC +5.8%), Cirrus Logic (CRUS +3.4%), and Semtech (SMTC +3%). Cirrus and OmniVision, which both depend heavily on Apple orders, might also be getting a boost from a positive Q4 pre-announcement from Germany's Dialog Semi (gets ~70% of its sales from Apple).
    • Several firms have hiked their Avago PTs in response to the LSI deal, which is set to be financed with $4.6B in debt and a $1B convertible note investment from Silver Lake (conversion price of just $48.04). Nomura expects the deal to lift Avago's 2015 EPS by $1.00-$1.50; Avago is promising $200M/year in synergies by the end of FY15 (ends Nov. '15). RBC thinks FY15 EPS of ~$5 is possible; the consensus is at $3.89.
    • Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
    | Comment!
SMH vs. ETF Alternatives
SMH Description
The Market Vectors®Semiconductor ETF (SMH) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index (MVSMHTR). The Index is a rules-based index intended to track the overall performance of 25 of the largest U.S. listed, publicly traded semiconductor companies.
See more details on sponsor's website
Sector: Technology
Country: United States
ETF Hub
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio: Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub