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ProShares UltraShort MSCI Mexico Capped IMI seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the MSCI Mexico IMI 25/50 Index®.
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Monday, Dec 163:28 PM
Monday, Dec 163:28 PM| 2 Comments
- Mexico’s sweeping energy reform clears its final major hurdle, as San Luis Potosi becomes the 17th state legislature to give rapid-fire approval to constitutional changes that will allow foreign investment into what has been a 75-year-old state monopoly.
- An influx of Mexican oil would contribute to a glut that is expected to lower the price of Brent crude, which has averaged $108.62/bbl YTD, to as low as $88/bbl in 2017; Exxon's recent prediction that North American production would vault ahead of every OPEC member except Saudi Arabia doesn’t even take into account any changes in Mexico.
- Although the first Mexican opportunities may go to the major independent oil companies in the U.S. and Europe, Chinese groups such as Cnooc (CEO) and Sinopec (SNP) will actively seek opportunities; Mexico's president plans to visit Beijing in 2014 and his trip may reveal whether Chinese firms are acceptable partners.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, UCO, EWW, GAZ, SCO, UGAZ, BOIL, DBO, DTO, BNO, DGAZ, UNL, CRUD, KOLD, USL, NAGS, DBE, GASZ, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, DCNG, UOIL, JJE, UMX, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, SMK, OLEM, TWTI, UBN.
Sunday, Dec 85:29 AM
Sunday, Dec 85:29 AM| 8 Comments
- Legislators in Mexico are today due to start debating a draft bill to open up the country's energy industry and end the decades-long monopoly of state-run Pemex, which suffers from inefficiency, falling output and chronic under-investment.
- The measures would allow private oil companies to explore for, produce, and refine oil and gas, as well as share and market the resources they extract. Firms would also be able to include the projected income of long-term contracts on their balance sheets, something that is crucial for obtaining funds. However, the proposals stop short of offering firms full-blow concessions - a loaded term in Mexico.
- If the bill becomes law, it could add 50-100 bps to Mexico's GDP and prompt rating agencies to give the country's debt a positive outlook, says economist Pedro Tuesta.
- Congress is expected to pass the legislation this week, as it's supported by the main opposition party as well as by the government, although it faces significant public hostility.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, UCO, EWW, GAZ, SCO, UGAZ, BOIL, DBO, DTO, BNO, DGAZ, UNL, CRUD, KOLD, USL, NAGS, DBE, GASZ, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, DCNG, UOIL, JJE, UMX, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, SMK, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Thursday, Nov 143:33 PM
Thursday, Nov 143:33 PM| Comment!
- It's the MINT countries whose prospects most excite Jim O'Neill. The coiner of the BRIC acronym (he didn't invent MINT) likes the favorable demographics and economic prospects of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey over the next two decades.
- He notes the optimism in places like Indonesia, where policymakers (and shoppers) are talking about economic growth of 7%, contrasted to Russia, whose economy minister suggested 2.5% growth over the next 20 years.
- Mexico ETFs: EWW, UMX, SMK
- Indonesia ETFs: IDX, EIDO, IDXJ
- Frontier markets ETFs: FM, FRN, EMFM
- Turkey ETF: TUR
Friday, Sep 612:49 PM
Friday, Sep 612:49 PM| Comment!
- The peso is ahead by 1.5% against the greenback after the Mexican central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.75% and leaves the door open to future cuts in its policy statement.
- The iShares MSCI Mexico Fund (EWW +2.6%).
- Other ETFs: UMX, SMK.
- Homebuilder Homex Development (HXM +9.6%).
- Cemex (CX +1%).
Friday, Nov 302012, 1:11 PMThe bull run in the Mexican peso is over, write Bernard and Cignarella, as the country posts a Y/Y tripling in the trade deficit in October. The gap comes as the economy slows - Y/Y GDP growth of 3.3% in Q3 vs. an average 4.5% pace for the year. The Bank of Mexico today left rates unchanged at 4.5%, but backed off previous threats of an imminent rate hike. EWW +26.5% YTD, |Friday, Nov 302012, 1:11 PM| Comment!
Wednesday, Nov 142012, 5:43 AMMexico's Senate yesterday passed a major labor-market reform bill that makes it easier to hire and fire staff, and shorten labor disputes. The government hopes the measures will create up to 400,000 jobs a year and cut the number of workers in the black market, which is estimated to cost Mexico as much as $15B in lost taxes each year. Major U.S.-listed firms that could be affected include American Movil (AMX) and Cemex (CX). |Wednesday, Nov 142012, 5:43 AM| Comment!
Sunday, Jul 292012, 8:20 AMBe careful chasing momentum, writes UBS' Javier Kulesz, reminding of 2 years ago when Brazil - garnering the Olympics and the The Economist cover while getting kudos for its swift post-GFC recovery - was a market darling, while Mexico was just the opposite. Since then, Mexico (EWW) is up over 20%, outperforming Brazil (EWZ) by more than 4500 basis points. Now it's Mexico drawing the raves. One might do worse going forward than going long Brazil against a short in Mexico. |Sunday, Jul 292012, 8:20 AM| 4 Comments
Thursday, May 172012, 12:08 PMMexico's Q1 GDP increased 4.6% Y/Y vs. expectations of 4.5% and from 3.9% in 2011 Q4. The strong performance of the peso this year has failed to dent manufacturing or exports, with March's trade surplus of $1.6B the highest for one month since 1985. Mexico (EWW) vs. Brazil (EWZ) this year. |Thursday, May 172012, 12:08 PM| Comment!
Friday, Apr 272012, 10:08 AM
Monday, Apr 92012, 11:07 AMDJFX trader writes a paen to the Mexican peso on WSJ, saying it's "undeservedly underappreciated." So what if Mexico is riddled with drug-related crime and suffers from political instability, the peso is "among the most heavily traded in the world," even if most of that comes against the dollar. |Monday, Apr 92012, 11:07 AM| Comment!
Friday, Mar 162012, 11:10 AM
Friday, Jan 202012, 3:05 PMMexico's central bank leaves policy unchanged for the 24th consecutive meeting, its benchmark rate remaining at 4.5%. The bank is more concerned with slowing growth rather than a "transitory" recent rise in inflation as the peso weakened along with other emerging market currencies in 2011 H2. Mexico ETF: EWW +6.4% YTD. |Friday, Jan 202012, 3:05 PM| Comment!
Friday, Dec 22011, 10:20 AMThe Bank of Mexico leaves its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5%, but hints it is ready to cut in future meetings as the outlook abroad has suffered. "It is estimated that the balance of risks to economic growth has continued to deteriorate." One Mexican ETF: EWW -10% YTD. (PR, in Spanish) |Friday, Dec 22011, 10:20 AM| Comment!
Monday, Nov 72011, 3:13 PMHSBC's Sergio Martin fades consensus, believing the Bank of Mexico is not set to cut rates. The latest inflation figures came in fast, he says, and a recent weakening of the peso bodes ill for future reports. Plus, economic growth continues to cruise along, decoupled, for the moment, from the U.S. |Monday, Nov 72011, 3:13 PM| Comment!
Friday, Oct 142011, 2:40 PM
Thursday, Sep 222011, 3:28 PMMexican shares and the peso continue to tumble as a government and central bank that were thought to be making a lot of right moves finds maybe they were just lucky to have been on the right side of the global risk trade (and now on the wrong side). Mexico shares ETF: EWW -7.2%, Peso ETF FXM -2.6%. |Thursday, Sep 222011, 3:28 PM| Comment!