Fri, Feb. 27, 1:07 PM
- "NAND in 1Q is far less soft [than] we'd have thought, despite seasonal weakness," writes Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, reiterating an Overweight on SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK). "Our industry contacts and channel checks [seem] to suggest 1H15 NAND pricing, while still not great on an absolute basis, is holding up better than we had expected as we think the Q4 surge largely depleted supplier inventories."
- Moore also sees NAND demand getting a boost from Samsung's Galaxy S6, which is set to launch in March and expected to see a doubling of NAND capacities for various price tiers (following Apple's doubling of iPhone NAND capacity for its two higher tiers). "A move by Samsung in the Galaxy S6 ... would reinforce our thesis that elastic demand in NAND within smartphones is going to drive the overall demand for NAND higher in this category."
- Moore upgraded SanDisk to Overweight last September, and soon afterwards argued higher-capacity iPhone 6 models would act as a tailwind.
Tue, Jan. 27, 7:27 PM
- Micron (NASDAQ:MU), SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), and InvenSense (NYSE:INVN) have joined Cirrus Logic, NXP, and several RF chipmakers in rising AH in response to Apple's FQ1 beat and stronger-than-expected iPhone sales print (74.5M units, +46% Y/Y).
- Micron became an iDevice mobile DRAM supplier through the Elpida acquisition. SanDisk has been both an iPhone NAND flash and MacBook SSD supplier, but there have been reports the company's recent woes are partly due to losing Apple as an SSD client. InvenSense's motion sensors were designed into the iPhone 6/6 Plus.
- MU +1.3% AH to $30.02. SNDK +1.3% to $79.99. INVN +1.7% to $15.19. InvenSense reports on Thursday. Micron was hit hard earlier today by Microsoft's FQ2 Windows figures and related commentary.
Thu, Jan. 22, 9:15 AM
Wed, Jan. 21, 6:00 PM
- SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) guides on its Q4 CC (webcast) for Q1 revenue of $1.4B-$1.45B, below a $1.6B consensus. Likewise, 2015 guidance is for revenue of $6.5B-$6.8B, below a $7.23B consensus.
- Revenue is expected to be down Y/Y in 1H15 before rebounding in 2H15. Q1 gross margin is expected to be roughly even with Q4's depressed 45%.
- Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is following SanDisk lower, as it did following the NAND rival's Jan. 12 warning.
- SanDisk's Q4 results, details
Wed, Jan. 21, 5:02 PM
- Along with its Q4 results, SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has announced its buyback authorization has been hiked by $2.5B, bringing its available funds to $3B. At current levels, that's good for repurchasing ~1/6 of outstanding shares. $503.4M was spent on buybacks in Q4.
- As stated in the company's Jan. 12 warning, Q4 gross margin was 45% - down 400 bps Q/Q and 600 bps Y/Y, and below initial guidance of 47%-49%. GAAP R&D spend rose 5% Y/Y to $226.1M, sales/marketing spend 37% to $111.5M (boosted by the Fusion-io deal), and G&A spend 2% to $52.1M.
- SanDisk declares its Q4 issues were "primarily" the result of supply constraints. "We believe that NAND flash industry fundamentals are healthy, and we expect our financial results to improve as we move through 2015."
- SNDK +0.7% AH. Guidance should be provided on the CC, which is getting underway.
- Q4 results, PR
Wed, Jan. 21, 4:43 PM
Wed, Jan. 21, 4:07 PM
Tue, Jan. 20, 5:35 PM
Mon, Jan. 12, 12:46 PM
Mon, Jan. 12, 9:14 AM
Mon, Jan. 12, 9:12 AM
- SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) now expects Q4 revenue of $1.73B, below prior guidance of $1.8B-$1.85B and a $1.84B consensus. Gross margin is now expected to be at 45%, below prior guidance of 47%-49%.
- NAND rival Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is following SanDisk lower. Last week, Micron offered more cautious remarks about its NAND ops (28% of revenue) than its DRAM ops (68% of revenue).
- SanDisk's full Q4 results are due on Jan. 21
- Previously: Micron's FQ2 DRAM and NAND guidance
Thu, Jan. 8, 6:19 PM
- SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has spun out recently-acquired Fusion-io's ioControl hybrid flash/hard drive storage system unit. Fusion-io obtained the business through its $119M 2013 acquisition of startup NexGen Storage.
- The business will once more be known as NexGen. SanDisk will supply it with PCIe flash modules (presumably Fusion-io's), but won't maintain a stake. The spin-out allows SanDisk to avoid competing against server/storage OEM customers in a hotly-contested hybrid storage market.
- SanDisk rose 2.8% today, joining many other chip stocks in outperforming.
Tue, Jan. 6, 4:27 PM
- Micron (NASDAQ:MU) guides in its FQ1 earnings slides (.pdf) for FQ2 revenue of $4.1B-$4.3B, below a $4.53B consensus. DRAM production (bit growth) is expected to fall by a high-single to low-double digit % Q/Q in the seasonally weak quarter, and trade NAND flash production is expected to be flat to down by a low-single digit %.
- Both DRAM and trade NAND prices are expected to be flat to down by low-single digits. DRAM cost/bit is expected to be flat, and trade NAND up by mid-single digits.
- FQ1 gross margin was 36%, up from 33% in FQ4 and 32% a year earlier. GAAP SG&A spend rose 10% Y/Y to $193M, and R&D spend 18% to $376M. Op. cash flow totaled $1.59B, and capex $669M.
- FQ1 DRAM figures: 68% of revenue, 8% Q/Q bit growth (mobile/server demand), 1% ASP growth, 4% cost/bit decline. FQ1 trade NAND figures: 26% of revenue, 20% bit growth (mobile/SSD demand), 6% ASP decline, 5% cost/bit decline. Other NAND was 2% of revenue, and NOR flash 3%.
- Micron ended FQ1 with $5.3B in cash/marketable investments, and $5.8B in debt.
- SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has moved lower in sympathy with Micron.
- FQ1 results, PR
Mon, Jan. 5, 5:33 PM
- HP (NYSE:HPQ) has launched the Stream Mini and Pavilion Mini, tiny Windows desktops that respectively sell for just $180 and $320, and take aim at desktops running Google's Chrome OS (i.e. Chromeboxes). The Stream Mini has only an Intel Celeron, CPU 2GB of RAM, and a 32GB SSD. The Pavilion Mini has a Pentium CPU, 4GB of RAM, and a 500GB hard drive.
- The tech giant has also launched a slew of high-end displays: The 23.6" Zr virtual reality display, which lets users view 3D images (comes ahead of HP's 3D printer launch); new 27" 4K and 5K-resolution displays; and several displays with curved panels.
- Seagate (NASDAQ:STX) has launched the Seven, a 500GB portable hard drive that's just 7mm thick, as well as a 500GB Wi-Fi-capable hard drive (the Wireless) that lets users offload content from mobile devices to PCs. Also unveiled: The Personal Cloud and Personal Cloud 2-Bay, home media servers that respectively feature 3TB-5TB and 4TB-8TB of capacity. The 2-Bay backs up files to a second drive.
- SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has launched: 1) The Ultra Dual, a line of of flash drives that connect PCs with Android phones by featuring standard USB connectors on one end, and micro USB connectors on the other. Prices range from $23-$64. 2) The SSD Plus, an entry-level SSD line using 19nm NAND flash, and priced at just $70-$110 (120GB-240GB capacities).
- Ahead of the Apple Watch launch, Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) has rolled out three smartwatches. The Vivoactive starts at $250, and pairs a GPS radio with support for mobile notifications. The Fenix 3 starts at $500, and features a number of advanced sports/fitness tracking features. The Epix starts at $550, and combines many of the Fenix 3's features with a moving map.
- Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) has launched: 1) The Vibe Band V10, an $89 fitness tracker with a 1.4" e-ink display. 2) The P90, a 5.5" smartphone with a quad-core Intel Atom CPU and optical image stabilization. 3) The Vibe X2 Pro, a phone that sports an 8-core Qualcomm Snapdragon CPU and (notably) 13MP cameras on both the front and rear.
- Prior CES coverage
Dec. 29, 2014, 9:42 AM
- Netlist (NLST +4.5%) states the USPTO has fully denied three SanDisk (SNDK -0.6%) petitions for an inter partes review (IPR) of Netlist patent claims, and partly denied a fourth petition. Petitions have been granted to "review three other Netlist patents that have also been asserted" in Netlist's infringement suit against SanDisk and memory module partner Diablo Technologies.
- Netlist has alleged SanDisk's ULLtraDIMM DDR3 server flash storage modules, which place flash directly on the memory bus (thereby lowering latency), infringe its patents. Along with its enterprise SSDs and Fusion-io's PCIe server flash cards, ULLtraDIMMs are a core part of SanDisk's efforts to grow its sales within the high-margin data center flash storage market. IBM and Super Micro are among the product's supporters.
- Netlist is up following the announcement.
Nov. 24, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Citing stronger-than-expected DRAM demand, a $1B buyback, the Inotera JV's Q3 results, and a weak yen, Goldman's James Covello has hiked his Micron (MU +1.8%) target by $3 to $32, albeit while reiterating a Neutral.
- SanDisk (SNDK +1.9%), which receives a favorable mention in Covello's note, is also outperforming. As is chip equipment maker Lam Research (LRCX +2.8%), which has considerable DRAM/NAND exposure and has seen its target hiked by $6 to $91. The Nasdaq is up 0.7%.
- Covello: "We are now modeling about 1% DRAM undersupply in 2015 (from balanced prior) ... Our new content estimates for phones, tablets and servers are now all modestly above third party forecasts to better reflect this."
- Nonetheless, Covello remains more partial to SanDisk, due to a belief the DRAM industry's EBIT margins (among the highest in the chip industry) are unsustainable. "We expect excess returns to continue to attract supply (creating upside risk to our 2015 base case supply estimate of 25% yoy) ... DRAM capex is up about 40% yoy in 2014E and tracking higher in 2015E." Bulls are counting on industry consolidation to keep a lid on supply growth.
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