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Sep. 20, 2013, 9:06 AM
- CF Industries (CF) +1.4% premarket after Citi upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral and raises its price target to $240 from $199, saying it's unlikely global nitrogen fertilizer prices will fall much further.
- Nitrogen prices have weakened for much of this year but suppliers are beginning to respond by cutting capacity, Citi analysts say they saw during a recent trip to China.
- CF has been flat YTD, making shares attractive ahead of expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics heading into 2014.
- ETF: SOIL.
Sep. 17, 2013, 9:43 AM
- Fertilizer producers open lower - but perhaps not as much as feared - after Mosaic (MOS -1.4%) cut its Q3 price and volume estimates in its potash and phosphates businesses, citing caution from dealers in the short term that has resulted in deferred purchases.
- Mosaic’s previous financial forecast had been made just two weeks before the breakup of the Russian potash marketing cartel; since then, “international crop nutrient markets have softened in part as a result of the distributors’ cautiousness,” the company says.
- POT -1.5%, AGU -0.5%, IPI -0.7%, CF -0.2%.
- ETFs: SOIL, MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
Jul. 30, 2013, 9:46 AM
- The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO -4.7%) and the PowerShares Global Agriculture ETF (PAGG -5.5%) after Russian potash producer Uralkali says it's going to make it up on volume
- Potash, Agrium, and Mosaic make up about 16% of MOO holdings, nearly 20% of PAGG
- Others: The Global X Fertilizer/Potash ETF (SOIL -8.9%)
Aug. 16, 2012, 8:16 AMSoaring farmland values may soften the blow of drought on farmers’ incomes. Prices of non-irrigated farmland in the Midwest and West rose 26% Y/Y in the June quarter. Farmland prices nationwide had already nearly doubled in the past five years. Soaring prices, along with the widespread use of crop insurance, are insulating many farmers from the drought’s financial impact. | Comment!
Aug. 8, 2012, 6:15 PM“The drought should prompt a rethink of U.S. over-reliance on corn," William Moseley writes. "Farmers in the central plains used to grow a greater diversity of food and forage crops… But they gradually opted to grow more and more corn thanks to federal agricultural subsidies and expanding markets for corn in animal feed, corn syrup and ethanol." | 3 Comments
Aug. 7, 2012, 3:26 PMSurging corn prices likely will have a ripple effect on other agricultural commodities such as wheat, Goldman Sachs says. Wheat feeding will be required to supplement corn use to limit livestock liquidation, the firm believes, resulting in "a smaller wheat-to-corn premium than currently priced into the CBOT future curves." | 1 Comment
Aug. 7, 2012, 8:38 AMThe condition of U.S. corn and soybean crops continues to get worse as the drought drags on. According to the USDA, ~39% of soybeans were rated poor to very poor as of yesterday vs. 37% a week earlier, while 50% of corn got the lowest ratings vs. 48% a week earlier. 23% of corn was rated good or excellent, marking the ninth straight weekly decline in the longest slump since at least 1986. | 4 Comments
Aug. 1, 2012, 12:20 PMPrice spikes in corn tend to be followed by consolidation periods lasting several months, but even if the easy money has been made, Ned Davis Research says specialty chemicals should still outperform. Stocks with high sensitivity to the price of corn - including POT, MOS, CF and ROC - have beaten the S&P 500 by an average ~25% in the year after a corn spike. | 1 Comment
Jul. 27, 2012, 11:32 AMSmithfield Foods (SFD) CEO Larry Pope calls on Congress to pass a bill lowering the U.S. government's Renewable Fuels Standard, which requires a certain volume of ethanol - 15.2B gallons in 2012, mainly derived from corn - be blended into gasoline. Corn prices have hit record highs, but the program is "aggravating the problem and adding to the crisis," Pope says. (also) | 3 Comments
Jul. 19, 2012, 5:49 AMCorn and soybean prices reach record highs as the worst drought since 1956 shows no signs of abating, with corn futures hitting $8.055 a bushel and benchmark soybeans $17.115. The forecast is for even higher temperatures in the central and western Midwest from early next week. "If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance I could do, I would do it," says Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. | Comment!
Jul. 17, 2012, 12:48 PMProjections of corn crop yields are still too high, according to a report from AccuWeather's Alex Sosnowski. The Accu crew expects a fall yield of 138 bushels/acre, lower than the latest USDA projection based on its forecast of ongoing heat and drought conditions. "Eventually, these costs will be passed along to the consumer in the form of higher food prices." (earlier) | 3 Comments
Jun. 29, 2012, 12:49 PM
Jun. 29, 2012, 10:39 AM2012 corn planted is estimated at 96.4M acres, says the USDA, +5% Y/Y and the highest planted acreage since 1937. Soybeans are estimated at 76.1M acres, the 3rd highest on record. Though both figures are higher than trade expectations, planted acres are not the same as harvested acres, and the drought continues. Corn and beans are sharply higher in early trade. | Comment!
Jun. 28, 2012, 2:50 PM
Jun. 26, 2012, 10:29 AMFertilizer stocks advance for a second day after the price of new corn rises to its highest since November on the government's report of greater than expected damage to corn crops. Also providing a lift is a Macquarie note that fertilizer companies should be able to significantly increase their dividends. AGU +1.5%, MOS +4%, POT +4%, CF +3.4%. | Comment!
Jun. 25, 2012, 8:58 AMDahlman Rose raises its outlook on fertilizer shares, believing they largely reflect the valuation eroding impact of a large crop; given that backdrop, the firm sees only two possible outcomes, both of which point to higher share prices. It upgrades CF and POT to Buy from Sell, AGU, RNF and MOS to Buy from Hold, and IPI and UAN to Hold from Sell. | 2 Comments
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