Tue, Mar. 31, 1:08 PM
- Corn (CORN -4%) inventories of 7.745B bushels as of March 1 are up 10.5% from a year ago and stand against trade estimates for 7.609B. Acres planted drop 1.398M from a year ago.
- Wheat (WEAT -3.5%) stocks of 1.124B bushels are up from 1.057B a year ago and stand against estimates for 1.141B. Acres planted drop 1.648M from a year ago.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.4%) inventories of 1.334B bushels are up from 994M a year ago and stand against estimates for 1.348B. Acres planted gain 934K from a year ago.
- Sources: USDA, Arlan Suderman, Bloomberg
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Mon, Mar. 30, 10:33 AM
- A report on Tuesday from the USDA is expected to show a 3% Y/Y rise in planted soybean acreage this spring vs. a 2% decrease for corn - the move coming as farmers deal with a 50% decline in corn prices since 2012.
- "Economics rule," says one farmer, noting he can break even or make a small profit on beans, but would likely lose money on corn.
- Not exactly in a bull market itself, but still at relatively lofty levels, soybeans could face some price pressure from the switch, and big speculators of late have boosted bets on a slide in bean prices. “We’ve got record large soybean stockpiles and the crops in both hemispheres this year were just enormous,” says an analyst. “It’s a perfect storm that’s starting to brew in the beans.”
- Source: WSJ
- ETFs: CORN, JJG, SOYB, GRU
Nov. 10, 2014, 12:14 PM
- It's lower yields at work, with the USDA now expecting 173.4 bushels per acre vs. 174.2 last month and the trade guess of 175.2.
- The bean crop is now estimated at 3.958B bushels vs. 3.927B last month and trade's expectation of 3.967B.
- Wheat ending stocks of 644M bushels compares to last month's 654M.
- Corn fired, but has quickly fallen back - now up marginally on the session after initially jumping around 2%. In the green earlier, beans are now lower by 1%, and wheat also erases early gains, now flat on the session.
- ETFs: CORN, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, GRU, WEET
Oct. 10, 2014, 12:20 PM
- The USDA estimate for this season's corn yield of 174.2 bushels per acre is up from 171.7 bushels one month ago, and compares to trade estimates of 174.7. Production of 14.475B bushels compares to trade estimates of 14.506B bushels. Ending stocks of 2.081B bushels vs. estimate of 2.13B.
- Soybean yields of 47.1 bushels is up from 46.6 last month, and vs. estimates of 47.6. The crop size of 3.927B bushels stands against estimates of 3.976B, and last month's estimate of 3.913B. Ending stocks of 450M bushels vs. estimate of 472M.
- Wheat ending stocks of 654M bushels drops from 698M last month and compares to estimates of 704M.
- Bottom line: Already big corn and bean crops got bigger.
- Corn and beans are off a few cents, while the price of wheat jumps nearly a dime per bushel on the low stocks estimate.
- ETFs: CORN, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, GRU, WEET
Oct. 1, 2014, 11:20 AM
- Contrarian antennae may be perking up as Goldman - following brutal multi-month runs lower in all of the grains - cuts its price forecast for soybeans, corn, and wheat.
- First up is beans (SOYB -0.2%), which Goldman says are overpriced relative to corn. Given the forecast for ending stocks, a 2.6:1 ratio for beans to corn, or $8 per bushel, is appropriate. Goldman's previous forecast called for beans at $10.50.
- Corn (CORN -0.1%) is cut to $3 per bushel from $4 amid strong U.S. crop yields and a lower export forecast. Wheat (WEAT -0.9%), says Goldman, deserves a 50% premium to corn given the current inventory situation, and this works out to $4.50 per bushel (from $5.60 previous).
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Sep. 22, 2014, 2:58 PM
- Commodity prices as measured by the Total Return Bloomberg Commodities Index reaches new five-year lows, hit by a strengthening dollar, the prospect of a record grain harvest in the U.S. and concerns over weakening economic growth in China.
- The index has dropped more than 12% since the end of June amid falling prices for commodities such as crude oil, soybeans and gold.
- Even industrial metals, one of this year’s best performers in commodities, have started to come under pressure; nickel has dropped 10% since the end of June, copper prices are at three-month lows, and iron ore trades below $80/ton for the first time since 2009.
- ETFs: USO, AGQ, OIL, DBA, CORN, USLV, UCO, ZSL, UGL, SCO, DGP, GLL, JJC, RJA, JJG, UGLD, BNO, WEAT, DZZ, DTO, SOYB, DBO, DSLV, DGL, CRUD, DBS, DAG, DGZ, JJA, DGLD, USL, GRU, DBE, UWTI, JJN, DNO, DWTI, RJN, USV, RGRA, AGA, UBG, AGF, CPER, SZO, BAR, FUD, USAG, OLO, UAG, WEET, DIRT, JJE, BARS, TAGS, NINI, CUPM, ONG, RGRE, ADZ, OLEM, UBN
Sep. 19, 2014, 11:12 AM
- It's new contract lows across the board in the grains with Dec. corn -1% to $3.34 per bushel, Dec. wheat -2.2% to $4.77, and Nov. beans -1% to $9.61.
- Related ETFs: CORN -1.2%, WEAT -2.1%, SOYB -1.5%, JJG -1.5%.
- For wheat it's a 4-year low following last week's USDA report estimating a record worldwide harvest of 720M metric tons. The USDA also said wheat exports of 314.5 tons in the week ended Sept. 11 were less than half the previous week.
- The same supply report also predicted record U.S. harvests for both corn and beans.
May. 9, 2014, 2:45 PM
- The corn harvest will hit a record 13.935B bushels this year, says the USDA in its latest report, bringing U.S. stockpiles to 1.726B bushels, higher than analyst forecasts. Global stockpiles will jump 8% to 181.7M metric tons thanks in part to big crops in Ukraine and Brazil.
- Analysts were taken by surprise by the big U.S. supply figure given farmer intentions of planting 4M fewer acres than last year, but the USDA is banking on normal weather, seeing the harvest at 165.3 bushels/acre, up 6.5 bushels from a year ago. "These are big, bearish numbers," says a futures broker, but "we still have to go out and produce the crop."
- July corn is off 7 cents to $5.09 per bushel. CORN -2%
- July wheat is off 7.25 cents to $7.28 per bushel after the USDA pegs global inventories at 187.4M metric tons, up from 186.5M for the current season. WEAT -0.8%
- July soybeans are higher by 17.5 cents to $14.87 per bushel after the USDA cuts its stockpile estimate to 130M bushels from 135M. The agency sees production this crop year at 3.635B bushels from 3.289B a year ago. SOYB +0.5%
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Apr. 29, 2014, 7:15 PM
- U.S. government forecasters predict a more than 65% chance for an El Niño weather phenomenon by the end of the year, a development that threatens to drive up prices for food and other staples.
- El Niño has a reputation for triggering sharp run-ups for prices in markets as diverse as nickel, coffee and soybeans, and commodities investors, traders and analysts are bracing for impact at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
- Global food prices - which at the start of 2014 were expected to be largely flat this year - could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Niño occurs, says World Bank economist James Baffes.
- But Société Générale analysts say it is miners, not farmers, who have the most to worry about; since 1991, nickel prices rose the most (13.9%) during El Niño years among commodities the bank tracks.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, DBC, JO, JJC, RJA, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, DJP, SGG, DBB, COW, NIB, GSG, RJI, CAFE, BAL, GCC, DAG, USCI, JJA, GRU, CHOC, CANE, JJN, RGRA, AGA, JJT, RGRC, CPER, AGF, GSP, BOM, RJZ, JJU, GSC, LSC, FUD, DJCI, USAG, BOS, SGAR, JJM, DEE, BDD, UCI, LD, WEET, UAG, DYY, DIRT, BCM, CMD, DDP, NINI, JJS, CTNN, TAGS, UBC, CUPM, FOIL, UCD, ADZ, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, CMDT, BDG, SBV, USMI, DPU, LSTK, CSCB, GRWN, HEVY, CSCR
Apr. 11, 2014, 6:06 PM
- China’s rejection of genetically modified corn is becoming a big problem for exporters: In the first full tally of the impact, a U.S. grain industry group says the rejected shipments have totaled ~1.45M metric tons, far more than the 545K tons China has reported and the 900K tons that has circulated in news media.
- The rejected shipments have cost grain companies $427M from lost sales and reduced prices for China-bound shipments that must be resold elsewhere, and has affected the price of corn and soybeans, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses for farmers.
- Big seed companies such as Syngenta (SYT), Monsanto (MON) and DuPont (DD) generally are aligned with traders such as Cargill and ADM in the desire to grow and sell as much grain as possible, but now the two groups are debating who should bear the costs for the rejected shipments.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, RJA, SOYB, DAG, JJA, RGRA, AGA, AGF, USAG, FUD, UAG, DIRT, TAGS, ADZ
Mar. 10, 2014, 12:12 PM
- World corn stocks of 158.47MMT is higher than last month's estimate of 157.3 and trade expectations of 156.27. Domestic ending stocks, however, are now placed at 1.456B bushels vs. 1.481 last month and trade expectations of 1.488.
- Domestic bean ending stocks of 145M bushels is down from 150 last month, but ahead of trade expectations for 141. World stocks of 70.64MMT vs. 73.01 previously and forecasts for 71.46.
- Domestic wheat ending stocks of 558M bushels compares to 558M last month and 570M forecast.
- Markets are reading the news as bearish, with corn off a nickel, beans down $0.25, and wheat off $0.02
- CORN -0.25%, SOYB -0.75%, WEAT -1.2%
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU, WEET
Jan. 10, 2014, 12:25 PM
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Nov. 29, 2013, 12:58 PM
- Soybean prices have outperformed other crops including corn and wheat on the year but may be set to fall in the next 6 months as global production rises 7.3% from last season to a record 286.5M tons, Oil World director Thomas Mielke believes. "Soybeans will be the leader to the downside," he stated at a conference in Hamburg.
- On the demand side, Mielke thinks Chinese buying has supported prices this year (soybean futures having fallen 5.5% this year on the Chicago exchange, vs. a 40% plunge in corn an 14% decline in wheat), leading to a situation in which markets haven't accounted for the increase in supply, particularly from South America, where next season's harvest may jump 9.4% to 158.5M tons.
- A confirmation of Mielke's forecast would be unfavorable for Teucrium Soybean (SOYB -0.7%), an ETF which seeks to track the futures of the 3 soybean contracts. Shares have been largely range bound in 2013, oscillating between $21.50-$26 and currently at $23.48.
Oct. 5, 2013, 8:25 AM
- The U.S. government shutdown and the resulting lack of official statistics are prompting traders to shun agricultural commodities due to concerns about the vacuum of information and fears of a data dump that will hit markets hard when the shutdown ends.
- Likely to fall victim to the shutdown is the USDA's monthly Wasde crop production report, set for Oct. 11, which affects prices of grains and other agricultural commodities around the world.
- Analysts say concerns over a delay could lead to additional short-covering as speculative shorts look to take risk off the table; once the USDA resumes operations, a torrent of backlogged data could trigger a highly volatile reaction.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI, JJG, GRU, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, COW, UBC, JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Sep. 30, 2013, 3:49 PM
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Sep. 12, 2013, 1:07 PM
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
SOYB vs. ETF Alternatives
"The Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE: SOYB) provides investors unleveraged direct exposure to soybeans without the need for a futures account. The Teucrium Soybean Fund was also designed to reduce the effects of backwardation and contango. The investment objective of the Fund is to have the daily changes in percentage terms of the Shares’ Net Asset Value (“NAV”) reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of a weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three futures contracts for soybeans (“Soybean Futures Contracts”) that are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (“CBOT”). The three Soybean Futures Contracts will be: (1) second-to-expire CBOT Soybean Futures Contract, weighted 35%, (2) the third-to-expire CBOT Soybean Futures Contract, weighted 30%, and (3) the CBOT Soybean Futures Contract expiring in the November following the expiration month of the third-to-expire contract, weighted 35%."
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