Seeking Alpha

Splunk Inc. (SPLK)

  • Aug. 28, 2014, 5:35 PM
    | Comment!
  • Aug. 28, 2014, 4:15 PM
    • Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) expects FQ3 revenue of $105M-$107M, above a $104.3M consensus. FY15 (ends Jan. '15) revenue guidance is at $423M-$428M, up from a prior $402M-$410M and above a $411.6M consensus. FY15 op. margin guidance has been raised to 1% from 0%.
    • License revenue +44% Y/Y in FQ2 to $62.1M, an improvement from FQ1's 42% growth. Services revenue (driven by past license deals) +67% to $39.5M.
    • Splunk added 500+ customers in FQ2, up from 400+ in FQ1. The total base is now above 7.9K. The deferred revenue balance rose 62% Y/Y to $207M.
    • GAAP opex rose 101% Y/Y to $146.8M, soundly exceeding revenue growth of 52%. Sales/marketing spend +79% to $80M; R&D +111% to $34.2M.
    • Shares had gone into earnings down 57% from a February high of $106.15.
    • FQ2 results, PR
    | Comment!
  • Aug. 28, 2014, 4:03 PM
    • Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK): FQ2 EPS of $0.01 beats by $0.03.
    • Revenue of $101.54M (+51.8% Y/Y) beats by $7.61M.
    • Shares +3.62% AH.
    • Press Release
    | Comment!
  • Aug. 27, 2014, 5:35 PM
  • Aug. 12, 2014, 2:13 PM
    • The Splunk App for Stream (SPLK -2.1%) captures streaming wire data in real-time from data center and networking hardware, and allows companies to filter and correlate the data as they see fit. (PR)
    • Splunk, which already offers plenty of other tools for capturing/analyzing machine data, sees potential use cases for the wire data offering in app management, IT troubleshooting, security (e.g. threat detection/analysis), and business analytics.
    • The app is the fruit of Splunk's December acquisition of network data capture startup Cloudmeter. Splunk's FQ2 report is due on Aug. 28.
    | Comment!
  • Jul. 8, 2014, 12:45 PM
    • Echoes of April: Following a big May/June rally that propelled the Nasdaq to new bubble highs, momentum stocks are nosediving nearly across the board today.
    • The selloff comes ahead of Alcoa's afternoon Q2 report, the unofficial start of earnings season. Some of the cash going out of equities is flowing into Treasurys.
    • Notable 6%+ decliners: TWTR -7.6%. DDD -6.5%. SSYS -7.9%. P -7.7%. LNKD -7.1%. DATA -10.1%. SPLK -9.3%. WDAY -7.7%. YELP -8.3%. GOGO -6.5%. YOKU -6.6%. ZU -10.5%. NOW -6.8%.
  • Jun. 20, 2014, 1:27 PM
    • Oracle missed FQ4 estimates thanks in part to weaker-than-expected license growth that has stoked fresh cloud competition fears. FQ1 guidance is in-line.
    • Tibco, which has been dealing with competitive and execution issues for several quarters, posted FQ2 numbers that were slightly better than the outlook provided in a June 3 warning, but also issued weak FQ3 guidance.
    • Many enterprise software names are trading lower, including several cloud software firms and a few companies viewed as big data/analytics plays: VMW -1.3%. SPLK -1.9%. DATA -2.3%. INFA -1.6%. MKTO -3.8%. JIVE -2.5%. CSLT -4.1%. BSFT -3.3%.
    • Workday (WDAY -2.2%) is also among the decliners. Larry Ellison again went out of his way to take shots at the cloud HR leader during Oracle's earnings CC (transcript). "We already have a huge lead over Workday in cloud ERP ... In HCM, we are dominating Workday in Europe, and beating them in dozens of core HCM deals here in North America." Workday will probably beg to differ on the specifics.
  • Jun. 12, 2014, 5:06 PM
    • Though Splunk (SPLK +2.1%) shares sold off hard after the company announced in May sales chief Tom Schodorf is leaving and will be replaced by ex-Cisco exec Doug Merritt, UBS isn't worried. "We’ve known Doug for 15 years and think he’s an excellent addition."
    • The firm adds many Splunk sales reps are now "hitting productivity" following a 70% 2013 increase in new sales hires. Canaccord and others have voiced concerns about Splunk's sales productivity as it tries to scale.
    • Shares have bounced strongly over the last week from a 52-week low of $39.35, but remain below where they traded in late May, before Splunk tumbled due to the muted guidance provided with an FQ1 beat.
    | Comment!
  • May. 30, 2014, 5:41 PM
    • With Splunk (SPLK -16.3%) predicting 60%-62% of its FQ2 revenue will come from licenses, the company implying license rev. growth will slow to 28%-35% from FQ1's 42% and FY14's 46%, writes FBN.
    • The firm also notes Splunk's $100K+ deal count only rose 27% Y/Y in FQ1 (to 167), down from FQ4's 69%, and that current product billings growth slowed to 41% from 73% in FQ4 and 60% in FY14. Nonetheless, it thinks "risk/reward is attractive" following Splunk's selloff, and suspects guidance is once more conservative.
    • Canaccord reiterates a Buy, but is worried Splunk might be hitting a growth wall. "As a firm scales, hiring becomes the primary chokepoint ... because you end up hiring too many people who are unable to scale ...  The challenge is that unless you’re exceptionally ruthless and willing to fire some people ... you risk scuffling at few years down the road."
    • UBS is defending Splunk, arguing (among other things) competition still isn't a problem, a proven sales chief has just been hired, and the company's valuation is still only 1/6 to 1/9 of the total addressable big data market.
    • Likewise, William Blair thinks a "continued mix shift to a higher proportion of ratable deals was the key driver of any underperformance versus expectations," rather than any fundamental problems.
    • FQ1 results, guidance/details
    | Comment!
  • May. 30, 2014, 12:45 PM
    | Comment!
  • May. 30, 2014, 9:14 AM
    | Comment!
  • May. 29, 2014, 4:18 PM
    • Splunk (SPLK) expects FQ2 revenue of $92M-$94M, above a $91.6M consensus. But FY15 (ends Jan. '15) guidance is for revenue of $402M-$410M, which is only in-line with a $406.9M consensus. After many quarters of guiding above consensus, investors wanted more.
    • License revenue (drives future services revenue) grew 42% Y/Y to $51.3M. Services revenue grew 65% to $34.6M. 400+ customers were added, raising the total to 7.4K+.
    • FQ1 op. margin was -4.2%, above guidance of -8% to -10%. GAAP opex rose 84% Y/Y to $121.8M, with sizable increases in sales/marketing, R&D, and G&A spend.
    • Guidance for an FY15 op. margin of "approximately zero" is being reiterated. FQ2 op. margin is expected to be in the -2% to -4% range.
    • Splunk's deferred revenue balance rose 65% Y/Y to $194M.
    • FQ1 results, PR
  • May. 29, 2014, 4:04 PM
    • Splunk (SPLK): FQ1 EPS of -$0.04 beats by $0.02.
    • Revenue of $85.9M (+50.1% Y/Y) beats by $5.16M.
    • Shares -6.2%.
    • Press Release
  • May. 28, 2014, 5:35 PM
  • May. 27, 2014, 9:55 AM
    • Splunk (SPLK +5.8%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Northland ahead of its Thursday FQ1 report, and has also received another bullish Pac Crest note. The company recently received bullish commentary from JMP and other analysts.
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW +2.9%) has upgraded to Buy by Nomura ahead of Wednesday's FQ3 report. The firm sees fewer risks related to Juniper's suit.
    • Guidewire (GWRE +4.4%) has been upgraded to Neutral by Citi ahead of its June 2 FQ3 report.
    • NTELOS (NTLS -5.6%) has been downgraded to Hold by Jefferies. Shares jumped last week after the company extended its Sprint deal to 2022, albeit while axing its dividend.
    • Sabre (SABR +3%) has received bullish ratings from 9 IPO underwriters. PTs are generally around $20.
    • Brooks Automation (BRKS +5.6%) has been upgraded to Buy by B. Riley.
    | Comment!
  • May. 20, 2014, 2:44 PM
    • Citing positive checks and "recent due diligence" regarding two privately-owned rivals, JMP has hiked its FQ1 Splunk (SPLK +0.4%) revenue forecast by $1M to $83M (above an $80.7M consensus), and is reiterating an Outperform ahead of the company's May 29 report. Shares are up slightly on a down day for equities.
    • With shares now at $44, JMP has decided to slash its PT by $44 to $66. Its new target spells a valuation of 8.6x EV/2016E sales. "Our target multiple decreases as multiples of other stocks in Splunk's high-growth peer group have declined significantly.”
    • Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight) is a little more cautious: Though upbeat about Splunk's long-term opportunity, the firm thinks "a slowdown in productive sales capacity growth, price cuts and increasing competition represent [near-term] tactical headwinds."
    • The notes arrive as VMware (VMW -2.8%), hungry to grow its non-virtualization revenue base, takes aim at Splunk by launching the second-gen version of its vCenter Log Insight machine/log data analytics software (previous).
    • VMware claims the product, aimed at Splunk's core IT operations market, delivers a 6x improvement in query performance, as well as new machine learning tech that "automatically groups related data."
    • Previous: Analysts return from Splunk conference with high praise
SPLK vs. ETF Alternatives
Company Description
Splunk Inc Splunk Inc provides software products. Its lagship product is Splunk Enterprise and at its core is a proprietary machine data engine, comprised of collection, indexing, search, reporting analysis and data management capabilities.
Sector: Technology
Country: United States