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SPLV vs. ETF Alternatives
The PowerShares S&P 500® Low Volatility Portfolio (Fund) is based on the S&P 500® Low Volatility Index (Index). The Fund will invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stocks that comprise the Index. The Index is compiled, maintained and calculated by Standard & Poor's and consists of the 100 stocks from the S&P 500 Index with the lowest realized volatility over the past 12 months. Volatility is a statistical measurement of the magnitude of up and down asset price fluctuations over time.
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Country: United States
Tuesday, Feb 1110:07 AM
Tuesday, Feb 1110:07 AM| 31 Comments
- Making the rounds on trading desks is this chart of the DJIA (DIA) of the last 18 months superimposed on a chart of the index during the same time frame in 1928-1929. The short version: If form holds, the market is set for another epic crash.
- In the more nuanced version, the chart says little except for again proving the hardwired tendency of the human brain to see patterns where none exist, and one is reminded of similar exercises over the past few years making the case for the Dow breaching its financial crisis lows.
- Technical guru Tom DeMark, however, is starting to believe: “Originally, I drew [the chart] for entertainment purposes only ... Now it’s evolved into something more serious.”
- Tom McClellan: "There is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 pattern. But between now and May 2014, there is plenty of reason for caution.”
- Large-cap ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, SPLV, TQQQ, QID, PRF, SPXL, SPXS, RSP, DOG, SQQQ, QLD, DXD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, USMV, DDM, VV, SCHX, IWB, NY, SPHB, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, JKD, FEX, VONE, TRND, SFLA, EQL, BXUC, ROLA, QQXT, BXDB, EEH, ONEK, SPXH, TRSK, FWDD, EWRI, TNDQ, PXLC, LGLV, ALTL, SYE
Wednesday, Jan 810:34 AM
Wednesday, Jan 810:34 AM| 7 Comments
- "The Safety Bubble Deflates," goes the title of a new report from Bernstein's Seth Masters, adding his name to those voices suggesting "safe" assets have become otherwise.
- Even though utilities, telecom, and consumer staples have underperformed of late, says Masters, their relative valuations are still well above the average over the last 50 years. "In periods of stress, investors tend to prize stability and safety too much. But in time, investors discover that every investment carries with it some degree of risk: if not risk of loss, then risk of inadequate growth."
- Related ETFs: XLU, IDU, VPU, NLR, GRID, JXI, NUCL, DBU, IPU, RYU, PUI, UPW, FXU, SDP, PSCU, AXUT, FUTY, UTLT, XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC, IYZ, VOX, IXP, IST, XTL, LTL, FCOM, TLL, AXTE
- Barron's Jack Hough says the "low beta" approach is a flawed one: First, volatility can change quickly as companies' or industries' fortunes shift; Second, beta tells one nothing about whether a stock's valuation is high or low. In a similar warning over low volatility stocks, BAML suggests looking for companies with smooth earnings rather than smooth stock prices. Screening for such, Hough finds CSX Corp (CSX -0.6%), DuPont (DD +0.6%), Cisco (CSCO -0.6%), and Halliburton (HAL -0.8%).
- Low volatility ETFs: SPLV, USMV, ACWV
Monday, Jan 63:52 PM
Monday, Jan 63:52 PM| Comment!
- "The low beta bubble is on the verge of deflating," says the quant team at BAML. "Due to low beta stocks’ strong performance in an up market, these stocks have quietly become riskier than they appear."
- Looking at the relative valuations of the "low beta" vs. "high beta" names, the analysts find the staid stocks trading at their largest premium to the risky ones in more than a decade.
- Low volatility ETFs: SPLV, USMV
Monday, Dec 232013, 11:57 AM
Monday, Dec 232013, 11:57 AM| 1 Comment
- "If history provides any guidance, there will be a shift to more cyclical, higher beta names, before this rally is well and truly over," says Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, noting investors are buying in a "cowardly" fashion - focusing on defensive, low beta stocks.
- The trend can be seen in low volatility stocks - and the ETFs built to own them, SPLV and USMV - trading at P/E multiple premiums to the broader market, while a high beta portfolio like SPHB is at a discount.
Wednesday, Dec 112013, 1:26 PM
Wednesday, Dec 112013, 1:26 PM| Comment!
- An MSCI study argues the low-volatility trade is a long way off from being a crowded one and says scalability isn't an issue, but the report, says Brendan Conway, didn't examine the market impact - i.e., the real world friction a large money manager might see moving in and out of positions.
- Then there's valuations - the study found low-volatility stocks had an average P-E ratio of 18.1x vs. 19.5x for all stocks from 1992-2012. But now the stocks making up the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (USMV) trade at 18.5x earnings vs. the S&P 500 at 16.5x. Globally, it's similar, with the iShares MSCI All Country World Minimum Volatility ETF (ACWV) at 18.5x earnings vs. the MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) at just 16.5x.
- "[O]ver the past 10 years, the cheapness or 'valueness' of developed market low volatility stocks seems to have diminished. As of May 1, 2013, the earnings yield and B/P ratio data indicate that low volatility strategies have become more expensive than the market cap-weighted core indices," says Research Affiliates' FeiFei Li.
- Related: SPLV
Thursday, Dec 52013, 11:16 AM
Thursday, Dec 52013, 11:16 AM| 14 Comments
- A "public service" from John Hussman who presents this long-term chart of the S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%) matched against occasions when the Investors Intelligence poll registered Bears at less than 18.5%, the Shiller P/E ratio stood above 19, and the S&P 500 was at a 5-year high: 1973, 1987, 2007, and today.
- Index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IVE, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, VOO, QID, PRF, SPXS, SPXL, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, SKF, DXD, QLD, IWF, RWL, EPS, IWD, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, IVW, VV, SPYG, SCHX, IWB, RPG, SPHB, NY, SPYV, BXUB, RPV, VOOG, QQEW, QQQE, JKD, VONE, FEX, VOOV, TRND, EQL, ROLA, SFLA, FBG, BXUC, UKF, FTA, QQXT, ONEK, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, BXDB, UVG, EWRI, PXLC, VONG, VONV, FWDD, TNDQ, LGLV, ALTL, SJF, FIBG
Tuesday, Nov 262013, 11:07 AM
Tuesday, Nov 262013, 11:07 AM| 6 Comments
- It's the bull market everyone continues to hate ... BAML's sell-side indicator - a contrarian take based on attitudes of strategists - continues to read in extreme bearish territory, suggesting more gains ahead for stocks. The level of bearishness now is actually greater than that of the March 2009 market bottom.
- Large cap ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, VOO, QID, PRF, SPXS, SPXL, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, QLD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, VV, SCHX, IWB, SPHB, NY, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, JKD, VONE, EQL, TRND, ROLA, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, EEH, ONEK, TRSK, SPXH, BXDB, PXLC, FSU, FSE, EWRI, TNDQ, FWDD, LGLV, ALTL
Saturday, Nov 232013, 2:53 PM
Saturday, Nov 232013, 2:53 PM| 12 Comments
- As the taper approaches, it may be time to ring the register and book some gains, Barron's thinks. Add in the fact that the S&P's 26% YTD gain has "likely [left] many investors with a higher mix of stocks than they would prefer," and the issues isn't whether or not to sell, but rather "what to sell and where to put the cash."
- Food for thought from Jack Hough: "The S&P 500 trades above 17 times trailing earnings, versus a historical average of about 15 [and] U.S. shares are 57% more expensive than emerging markets and 67% more expensive than Europe" based on "a long-term average of earnings to adjust for cyclicality."
- Investors might want to consider putting small companies on the chopping block first, as they have outperformed their larger cap counterparts this year and their P/E premium to large caps has stretched well beyond its historical average.
- Small/Micro Cap ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, IWC, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, TWM, SCHA, RWM, SRTY, SAA, DWAS, VTWO, SBB, SDD, RSCO, JKJ, FDM, PZI, XSLV, WMCR, FYX, VIOO, EWRS, TWOK, SMLV, PXSC
- Large Cap U.S. ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, VOO, QID, PRF, SPXS, SPXL, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, QLD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, VV, SCHX, IWB, SPHB, NY, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, JKD, VONE, EQL, TRND, ROLA, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, EEH, ONEK, SPXH, TRSK, BXDB, PXLC, FSU, FSE, EWRI, FWDD, TNDQ, LGLV, ALTL
Monday, Nov 112013, 8:51 AM
Monday, Nov 112013, 8:51 AM| 15 Comments
- "I don't want to miss out." a Los Angeles real estate appraiser said in a note to his financial adviser last week after seeing one pundit up his DJIA forecast to 20K.
- "Frankly, from 2009 until recently, I wanted to stay very conservative," says a technology sales manager. "I want to get more aggressive."
- A Houston attorney and stock market skeptic was turned by her Schwab statement showing YTD gains of nearly 20%. She's planning on set aside more of her paycheck for stocks. "Sometimes you feel like it's too late. But it's probably never too late."
- Inflows of $8.9B into long-only equity funds last week were the largest amount since March 2000. This follows October inflows into stock funds that were the 3rd largest on record.
- Index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UWM, SPLV, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, SLY, QLD, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, DDM, EZM, MIDU, VV, RWK, RWM, SRTY, SCHX, IWB, UMDD, IWR, SPHB, NY, SAA, BXUB, SCHM, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, MIDZ, QQQE, MZZ, JKD, IVOO, DIM, VONE, SBB, RSCO, EQL, FNX, JKJ, CZA, SDD, ROLA, TRND, SFLA, XMLV, BXUC, XSLV, JKG, SMDD, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, EEH, ONEK, TRSK, TRNM, SPXH, EWRS, TWOK, FSE, BXDB, EWRI, FSU, PXLC, SMLV, FWDD, TNDQ, LGLV, EWRM, ALTL, PXMC, PXSC
Friday, Nov 12013, 12:03 PM
Friday, Nov 12013, 12:03 PM| 21 Comments
- Investors poured another $12.4B into global equity funds in the week ended Wednesday, with BAML's Michael Hartnett saying another $8B-$9B of inflows over the next two weeks would trigger a contrarian sell signal in his firm's flow-based model.
- This would coincide with BAML's Bull & Bear Index, which is getting a little to bullish for comfort. Fund manager cash levels were at 4.4% in October. A dip below 4% in November, says Hartnett, would trigger a bright red Sell alert.
- Stock index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, VTI, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IWC, IVV, SPXU, UWM, SPLV, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, DXD, SQQQ, SLY, QLD, PRFZ, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, SCHB, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, VXF, USMV, DDM, EZM, MIDU, VV, RWM, RWK, IWV, SRTY, SCHX, IWB, ITOT, ONEQ, PDP, UMDD, IWR, OEF, SPHB, IYY, MGC, NY, SAA, SCHM, BXUB, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, XLG, NYC, MIDZ, MZZ, QQQE, QUAL, DIM, IVOO, JKD, SBB, VONE, EXT, RSCO, CZA, FNX, EQL, JKJ, FVI, SDD, EUSA, ROLA, PZI, FDM, SFLA, TRND, RTLA, XMLV, THRK, XSLV, JKG, BXUC, SMDD, WMCR, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, TRNM, ONEK, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, IWL, VTHR, EWRS, TWOK, FSE, FSU, PXLC, EWRI, PWO, TOTS, SMLV, BXDB, EWRM, LGLV, UWC, TNDQ, FNDB, FWDD, ALTL, FMK, PXSC, SIZE, PXMC, PIQ, TWQ
Thursday, Oct 312013, 7:08 AM
Thursday, Oct 312013, 7:08 AM| 4 Comments
- Still coming to grips with the slightest hawkish twist to the FOMC statement yesterday afternoon, S&P 500 (SPY) futures are down 0.25% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is off 0.45%. Facebook soared after a big earnings beat last night, then actually turned red during the earnings call, but is now higher by 3% in the premarket.
- Europe opened to the downside, but is now mostly higher, and Asia was solidly lower overnight.
- Treasury yields have regained some of their composure, the 10-year yield falling 3 basis points to 2.51%, after shooting higher yesterday afternoon post-statement. Gold's off 1% to $1,.335 per ounce.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, VTI, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IWC, IVV, SPXU, SPLV, UWM, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, DXD, SQQQ, SLY, QLD, PRFZ, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, SCHB, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, VXF, USMV, DDM, EZM, VV, MIDU, RWM, RWK, IWV, SRTY, SCHX, ITOT, IWB, ONEQ, PDP, IWR, UMDD, OEF, SPHB, IYY, MGC, NY, SAA, SCHM, BXUB, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, XLG, NYC, MIDZ, MZZ, QUAL, QQQE, DIM, IVOO, JKD, VONE, SBB, EXT, RSCO, CZA, FVI, FNX, JKJ, EQL, EUSA, PZI, SDD, FDM, ROLA, SFLA, RTLA, TRND, XMLV, THRK, XSLV, JKG, BXUC, SMDD, WMCR, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, EEH, TRNM, ONEK, SPXH, TRSK, IWL, EWRS, VTHR, TWOK, FSE, PXLC, EWRI, FSU, SMLV, BXDB, PWO, TOTS, EWRM, LGLV, TNDQ, UWC, FWDD, ALTL, FMK, FNDB, PXSC, PXMC, SIZE, PIQ, TWQ.
Tuesday, Jul 232013, 12:01 PM"Some volatility is good," write researchers from Ned Davis after studying the results and finding low volatility strategies barely took the edge off big market declines in the mid-70s and mid-80s. Investors in SPLV or USMV who watched those funds underperform the SPY of late hardly need reminding of this. The study did not extend to global variants like EEMV and ACWV. |Tuesday, Jul 232013, 12:01 PM| Comment!
Monday, May 202013, 10:47 AM"High Beta" is hot with the PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio (SPHB) pulling ahead of the Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) YTD after notably underperforming in Q1 and early Q2. Markets make opinions, and Sam Stovall thinks the momentum in high beta is set to continue as yield-starved investors look to capital gains instead of dividends. |Monday, May 202013, 10:47 AM| 1 Comment
Tuesday, Apr 162013, 9:25 AMThere's not too many surprises in ETF action yesterday, with areas like the bond market (AGG), real estate (IYR), low volatility (SPLV), and pharmaceuticals (IHE) seeing big inflows, and small caps (IWM), energy (XLE), energy exploration (XOP), and materials (XLB) seeing a wave of cash exit. |Tuesday, Apr 162013, 9:25 AM| Comment!
Friday, Mar 222013, 2:29 PMBill Luby takes a look at the low volatility fad, checking the performance of the popular SPLV against the high beta SPHB. Over longer periods - and even in bull markets - low volatility appears to have a high probability of outperforming high beta, particularly when risk-adjusted. The biggest risk is a sharp bull move similar to the last few months in which high beta leaves the defensive stocks in the dust. |Friday, Mar 222013, 2:29 PM| Comment!
Tuesday, Mar 192013, 3:05 PMThe low volatility space continues to be a popular one with PowerShares' SPLV surpassing $4B in AUM in its less than 2 years of existence. The fund holds the 100 stocks in the S&P 500 with the lowest volatility over the previous year, and has outperformed the SPY by more than 600 bps since inception. Competitors include: USMV, IDLV, EEMV, SMLV, LGLV. |Tuesday, Mar 192013, 3:05 PM| Comment!