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- Will the July Lows Hold? [view article]
- Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
- A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
- The Markets Are Nocturnal: Daytime vs Overnight Performance [view article]
- Are VIX Futures Signaling End of Year Slump? [view article]
- The 52 Week Highs/Lows - How Well Do They Correlate with Important Moves? [view article]
- The Market's Painful Ups and Downs [view article]
- Market Likely to Continue to Head Lower [view article]
- How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution [view article]
- Dividend Yields Soar [view article]
- Chart of the Day: Anatomy of a Bear Market [view article]
- Time to Buy Gold [view article]
Recent SPX Articles
- Will the July Lows Hold?
- Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008
- A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy
- Are VIX Futures Signaling End of Year Slump?
- The 52 Week Highs/Lows - How Well Do They Correlate with Important Moves?
- The Markets Are Nocturnal: Daytime vs Overnight Performance
- The Market's Painful Ups and Downs
- Bankruptcies and the Birth/Death Adjustment
- Market Likely to Continue to Head Lower
- How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution
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Will the July Lows Hold? [view article]
July low will not hold!Reasons-funds selling-workers laid off need funds. Retired folks are fed up losing will sell too. Next! Reply
Lathrop
Will the July Lows Hold? [view article]
I am holding some SDS but they have just now come back into the money since July. David Fry and his ETF digest gives a great overview that we're in a sideways trading range and most of the air has been taken out of the market. There may be a bad September and October but I would see bounces and trades within a box range for the foreseeable future. ReplyWill the July Lows Hold? [view article]
volumes were lighter yesterday than the July lows so a short term bounce is a good probability, but ultimately I agree with you - the July lows will get broken this year. ReplyWill the July Lows Hold? [view article]
Jordan has written a useful article with keen observation of market behavior. In the light of the weak market action as described in the article above, I would take the side of Jordan that the July market low would not hold. Meanwhile, holding cash with some shorts seems a sensible stance. ReplyInvest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
Dell doesn't have any pricing power, that is the main problem.I am still long Cisco, they have more pricing power and $26 billion in cash to buy up the competition in this weak market. You can get away with cheap pc's but not cheap network equipment! Reply
Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
I've been watching DRAM and Flash memory prices in Taiwan... they've been in an absolute free fall the past 6 weeks after topping out in the late Spring. I suggest people keep an eye on those prices.www.dramexchange.com/
Taiwan stock market has been extremely weak the past few weeks, with 100+ point down days very frequent.
SOXX is testing multi year lows.
My belief is, where semis go, so goeth tech.
Reply
Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
Gaucho, you could equally argue that Nintendo is a specific product story.Reply
Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
Nintendo in Japan just raised its sales and profit forecast by 25% last week, for total global takes and they are a 100% consumer company. So its not all bad, but clearly, we are in a recession with head winds, as you mention. It will be a stock pickers market, as it has been. However, in this case I do beleive Dell has its own issues as compared to the rest of tech...not too say there might be weakness, but until I hear otherwise, Dell is using the global recession as an excuse for its weak sales and subpar products. And I can't stress enough the subpar part...in the past year I've had one person buy two laptops from Dell and they both broke for different reasons. Dell has a bad rep, at least with the people (consumers) I speak to on a daily basis...you try to avoid a Dell now due to their poor quality and customer service. I bought an HP earlier this year due to these reasons and I haven't been disappointed.But anyways, yes, it will be a tough market but I am not yet convinced the rest of tech will be hit as hard Dell. Reply
Invest Cautiously for the Rest of 2008 [view article]
One suspects that DELL's current problems have a lot more to do with DELL in particular than any other company. AAPL and HPQ and INTC all seem to be doing okay. STX is nearly supply constrained. And MSFT doesn't seem to be disappointing more than one would anticipate just due to Vista.While not growing as fast as we'd like, the computer side of the tech industry is still clearly growing.
reinharden Reply
Brochstein
A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
I appreciate the compliment, as at 43 I don't often get called "young". I also appreciate not only yours but also the many other accusations of insanity, as it helps me to get a feel for the psychological state of the market. ReplyA Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
Insanity is not catching I hope.What is it about bottoms and young men? They seem to always see them and go overboard. In this case: today's market is not a bottom, and you may have lost your mind if you like this bottom.
Just a ladies view for what its worth. Reply
A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
As with everything else, there is good retail and poor retail. Long TRLG, BWLD, URBN which have done good.Then there is poor retail like CHS and CROX. Reply
The Ponzi
Scheme
Would Last?
A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
I think it would be instructive for you to learn how to read a mania chart.Then go look at the dow.
Then look at the mania chart example again (Prechter's book has a few good ones).
Then look at the Nikkei 225 over the past 2 decades.
Then glance back at the mania chart examples like tulipmania and south sea trading.
Then review the dow one last time.
See a pattern?
Now look at all the charts of financial stocks one at a time.
See a pattern?
Now look at the FDX chart.
See a pattern?
Now look at DE.
See a pattern?
If you haven't gotten the point by now then you are not very good at pattern matching. Reply
Brochstein
A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
Thanks 300mph. secmaven, TLB price action may be confusing, but often (usually) stocks bottom before the news gets better. Just because it got a good reaction to a crappy report doesn't prove the worst is behind them, but someone with some bucks thinks so. I have a client that has had a position there - deep value. Their thesis is that the depressed margins can expand dramatically when the economy recovers. Of course, they were early on the stock, but I think it looks ok. The stock trades at 1.8X book value, having bottomed (for now) at about 1X. I would note, though, that there are significant intangibles. Additionally, the company has a lot of debt in my view. It's certainly not the one I would buy, but I can see how folks got excited by the plunge in inventories. Maybe they will get those margins back into the historical range... ReplyA Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
of stem cell research and therapy, KOOL. Reply