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SPY
SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF - NYSEARCA

4/25/2014, 2:41 AM ET
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  • A Novel Idea: Sell U.S. Stocks Into Strength
    Owen Williams, CFA Tue, Apr. 22 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The red-hot U.S. equity market has not seen any meaningful pull-back since 2011.
    • The recent sell-off in leading US cyclical stocks is particularly interesting given the coincident rebound in risky EM stocks.
    • We present three arguments in favor of getting out of US stocks during the current bounce back.
  • U.S. Stock-Market Valuations Are At Dangerous Bull-Slaying Levels
    Adam Hamilton Sat, Apr. 19 65 Comments

    Summary

    • The US stock markets are dangerously overvalued today. Measured by the elite S&P 500 component stocks, trailing price-to-earnings ratios are well above the 21x historically expensive level.
    • Today's valuations of 23x to 26x are way up in extremely risky bull-slaying territory that has killed past bull markets.
    • Stock prices would need to fall by well over a third simply to return to historical fair value of 14x earnings.
  • Part VII: Non-Correlated Hedged Convexity Capture Bulldozes Through Market Chop
    Harry Long Thu, Apr. 17 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Hedged Convexity Capture continues to plow through market turbulence.
    • Investors must embrace data and systematic quant techniques.
    • Traditional stock-picking cannot effectively compete with advanced quant approaches.
    • Most investors and traders resist change until they are sick and tired of being sick and tired.
    • Unfortunately, emotional rock-bottom usually correlates with financial rock-bottom.
  • SPY 4% Off Record High, While ECRI's WLI Sets A 205-Week High
    Kirk Lindstrom Mon, Apr. 14 12 Comments

    Summary

    • ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index at a 205-week (3.9-year) high.
    • On Friday April 11, 2014, the S&P500 index closed 4.33% below its all-time intraday high.
    • SPY was also 4.3% off its recent all-time high.
    • I remain long SPY.
  • Stocks More Overvalued Than At 10 Of Last 18 Market Peaks
    John Early Sun, Apr. 13 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Current PE using trailing 12 month earnings is higher than at average market peak.
    • Pundits who claim stocks are not overvalued are using meaningless noise of PE spikes that occur because earnings collapsed in a recession.
    • When a bull market has run for a few years, a declining PE can be a sign prices are about to roll over. They could be now?
  • SPY Seasonality: Share Price Cools Down While U.S. Air Temperature Heats Up
    J.J. McGrath Sun, Apr. 13 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The SPY exchange-traded fund’s behavior was comparatively weak in 2014’s first quarter, when it advanced on an adjusted basis to $187.01 from $183.88, a gain of $3.13, or 1.70 percent.
    • In contrast, the S&P 500-based ETF’s performance was comparatively strong in 2013’s Q1, when it soared to $153.57 from $138.98, an increase of $14.59, or 10.50 percent.
    • SPY’s advance in the latest quarter also was lackluster when compared with the cumulative monthly mean and median returns for Q1 compiled during its first full 20 years.
    • Based on seasonality between 1994 and 2013, SPY’s share-price gains appear likely to move lower as U.S. air temperatures move higher, not only in Q2 but also in Q3.
    • This tepid outlook for SPY is complemented by the Federal Reserve’s actions to consign its current quantitative-easing program to the dustbin of history.
  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500
    James A. Kostohryz Fri, Apr. 11 184 Comments

    Summary

    • In this article I present one possible methodology for identifying a peak PE during a bull market cycle.
    • Detailed comparative analysis suggests that on the basis of forward PE ratios, S&P 500 valuations have rarely been higher than they are currently.
    • Only during the 1998-2000 bubble were forward PEs much higher than they are now. By contrast, once PEs peak, there is significant risk of PE contraction and/or major declines.
    • Unless you expect a stock market bubble to inflate, further market gains via PE expansion may be constrained. Risk/reward unfavorable for most investors.
  • Momentum Stocks Got You Down? Try A Low-Risk Trade On The S&P 500 For A Change
    Dr. Duru Tue, Apr. 8 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The plunge in momentum stocks has created a fresh and trade-able divergence among components of the S&P 500.
    • A low-risk way to play this divergence combines indices on the high beta and low volatility components versus the entire S&P 500 index.
    • Paying attention to the logic of the currently accepted market narratives helps prepare to make these kinds of timely trades.
  • When Safety Rallies, Pay Attention
    Michael A. Gayed Mon, Apr. 7 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Utilities continues to predict coming volatility.
    • Emerging market strength competing with US weakness.
    • Defensiveness remains problematic.
  • The S&P 500 And U.S. Economic Index Continue Decoupling
    J.J. McGrath Fri, Apr. 4 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Both SPY and my U.S. Economic Index moved higher last month, even as the SPY-USEI correlation coefficient moved lower.
    • SPY climbed to an all-time monthly closing high share price, as it advanced on an adjusted basis to $187.01 from $185.47, a gain of $1.54, or 0.83 percent.
    • Founded primarily on Institute for Supply Management data, the USEI also expanded, to 53.18 from 51.80, an increase of 1.38 points, or 2.65 percent.
    • However, the SPY-USEI correlation coefficient dipped to 0.61 in March from 0.62 in February, a continuation of its long-term slide.
    • This decoupling of SPY and the USEI reflects a rupture between the equity market and the economy, one likely to be unsustainable.
  • April Brings Spring... And Solid Returns
    Jeroen Blokland Thu, Apr. 3 5 Comments

    Summary

    • April has historically been among the most friendly months for investors.
    • April has historically had a below average probability of yielding a negative return.
    • April historically represents a below average number of worst return months.
  • What's Weighing On The SPY Today?
    Markos Kaminis Thu, Apr. 3 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Detail within the International Trade data today shows the trade deficit with China narrowed significantly and is likely fueling investor anxiety heading into tomorrow's jobs report.
    • Critical service sector reports offered some buffer this morning for the SPDR S&P 500, as each marked important improvement over a tough prior month.
    • The SPY is likely to remain weighed down heading into the Employment Situation Report tomorrow, and will take new lead from whatever the data shows at that point.
  • Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950
    Linus Wilson Tue, Apr. 1 19 Comments

    Summary

    • There is a very low chance of a correction in Q2.
    • There is a one in three chance that the market closes above 2000.
    • The problems with Russian aggression are not new and are unlikely to affect the stock market.
  • S&P Long - Ask Yourself One Question, Do You Feel Lucky?
    Markos Kaminis Mon, Mar. 31 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Varying reports and analysis of Russian troop movements seem to offer some hope and fuel for stocks and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) this morning.
    • Questions remain this week about Russia's intentions with regard to Ukraine and the broader region, and also about the Employment Situation Report due on Friday.
    • So investors considering going long stocks and the SPY security today had better first ask themselves, "Do I feel lucky?"
  • Part VI: Non-Correlated Hedged Convexity Capture Revisited
    Harry Long Mon, Mar. 31 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Hedged Convexity Capture is not dependent upon bull markets.
    • It is not a perfect strategy.
    • Hedged Convexity Capture is merely superior to the publicly available alternatives.
    • The strategy represents an actuarial approach which is revolutionary.
  • Stocks Endangered By Fresh Putin Aggression - Sell SPDR S&P 500
    Markos Kaminis Fri, Mar. 28 125 Comments

    Summary

    • Multiple respected & important sources indicate and warn of a fresh and significant military buildup along Russia's border with Ukraine.
    • Equities have held relative strength since the annexation of Crimea, but a flight to quality seems to have begun based on strangely decreased 10-Year Treasury Yields post the FOMC scare.
    • Investors have opportunity still to reduce SPDR S&P 500 exposure early, and to reduce risk tied to higher beta stocks, and to hedge risk with relative instruments.
  • Part V: Hedged Convexity Capture Continues To Be The World's Best-Performing ETF Strategy
    Harry Long Wed, Mar. 26 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Long-biased Hedged Convexity Capture continues to destroy the S&P 500.
    • Investors are wasting their time with tired, archaic, complex strategies.
    • Brilliant quantitative insights will continue to dominate.
  • The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner With No Way Out
    Joseph Stuber Wed, Mar. 26 148 Comments

    Summary

    • The primary driver of stocks is the carry trade.
    • The positive metrics of the carry trade are shifting.
    • The Fed's decision to end QE is primarily to defend the dollar against the yen and protect the positive metrics of the carry trade.
    • Even if the Fed can defend the dollar the undesired consequence of the current shift in policy will have negative effects on the economy.
  • Market Timing Report: Negative Divergences Set The Stage For A Nasty Spill
    Bradley Lamensdorf Tue, Mar. 25 31 Comments

    Summary

    • In the stock market, there has historically been a pronounced correlation between what occurs in January and what happens for the remainder of that year.
    • The January 2014 correction and subsequent rally have left some significant negative divergences and subsurface weakness, which the indexes are masking.
    • The "January Barometer" is firmly in place, insider selling is at alarmingly high levels and margin debt is being used in a reckless fashion.
    • Thus, we feel the stage has been set for a nasty spill in the stock market.
  • Time To Sell This Bull Market?
    Value Investors Portal Tue, Mar. 25 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The bull market is in the latter stage of the business cycle.
    • Certain indicators suggest an overheated market.
    • What to do during this time in a bull market.
SPY vs. ETF Alternatives
SPY Description
The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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Country: United States