SPY Forum Topics
- All Comments on SPY
- General Discussion on SPY
- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- A Look at Long-Term Stock Valuations [view article]
- Market Backdrop: 1990 vs. Today [view article]
- Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
- Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
- John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil? [view article]
- Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
- Diversification Can Be Everything [view article]
- Is it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
loading ...Recent SPY Articles
- Merrill's David Rosenberg Discusses Corporate Earnings and Market Multiples
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Beware of Pricing the Market in Terms of Some Commodity
- Global Sector ETFs: Utilities, Healthcare and Staples Are Providing Shelter
- A Look at Long-Term Stock Valuations
- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In
- Is it Time to Back Up the Truck?
- Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans?
- Diversification Can Be Everything
- John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil?
- Full List of Articles »
Second Quarter Earnings Season Is Upon Us [view article]
I think this Q is going to turn around and start having more companies beat. The earnings estimates have been revised so much lower for this Q that its almost certain to beat. Replyet
Financials: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words [view article]
Financial sector is XLF F, not E ReplyIs it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
The market is not predictable to the point of waiting for a certain month to buy. Now appears to be a good time to buy BECAUSE everyone is waiting a little longer and hoping the market will be lower. It probably won't be. We are due a strong bounce. It doesn't mean a new bull market, but we are due a good rebound. It may be over by September. Replyder Vlist
The Screws Tighten on Apple Investors [view article]
Besides all the TA and market analysis, what I see is just this: Apple is making lots of money, and will make even more money in the second half of 2008. Still, the share price is below where it was at the beginning of 2008. So we can go a little higher still. Especially because the market share in computers has a lot of room for expansion. iPhone will be a hit too, although not everybody seems to notice yet. ReplyMarket Backdrop: 1990 vs. Today [view article]
the main diff is this credit crunch is way more severe......and we didn't go bomb the hell out of the the Iraqi's this month.......ie, 'The Gulf War', which brought us out of the dull-drums. Now is diff......banks can't get capital like they could then. We're going down further, just get ready. ReplyIs it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
Second HALF. Why is there no edit button here? ReplyModalities of the 'Imminent' VIX Spike [view article]
I doubt that anyone **really** thinks you can only have a bounce if the VIX spikes... More than likely, just as I like to see an equity come off a stochastic past the 20, this is a kind of safety issue for most investors. In other words it's a confirmation. For the record, even though the VIX hasn't hit 30+, the DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ all appear to be bottoming according to the weekly slow stochastic. However, none have pushed through the 20 yet. And, yes, I have lost money depending on the stochastic as well... Such is life!Thx jegan ;-) Reply
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
sorry reinko, only good tasting tuna get to be starxxxx...wow...let's see, you had your tonsils taken out in second grade and you missed out on multiplication and division...100 million home loans with avg value at 200k is 20 trillion...we have 11 trillion is loans outstanding...so are you suggesting that the average home will come down to 100k before people start wanting to buy homes again...where else are you finding this mystery 10 trillion in losses...??? sorry to disappoint the chaps who are looking to use basel 2 rules with FAS 157 to create the mother of all squeeze plays...but it aint happenin...where exactly are the 10 million people who will be looking for a place to stay going to find it in the next 1500 days...planet zenon ??? new warm bodies in search of a place to call their own...there really was no such thing as the great depression...in that it really was the great shift...from a rural semi nomadic existence to the urbanization we have today... from living your life within 50 miles of where you were born to the climbing of uncharted mountains in greenland today(sorry I have a hard time remembering how to spell nunuvaat...or what ever it is called). where the federal reserve system was helped out by the treasury which refused to issue currency unless the local banks signed into the fed system...and with it, the blow that killed everything was the collapse of the austrian/hapsburg financial system in 1931...what part of western europe is going the way of austria ??? wake up and smell the numbers. Dow breaks 20000 on January 19, 2010...the shorts will be short circuited in 2009. 11 trillions dollars in outstanding mortgages..let's take pimpko's most wished for mess...1 trillion in bad debt...down to zero..no payments...ok..so what is the remaining cash flow on the rest of the outstanding 10 trillion in mortgages..I'm sorry..I did not catch that...what you forgot to calculate that 90% of the loans are still paying even in that scenario...and what is the spread between cost of funds and collection...what was that...you don't know...well then, get out of the basement since your mom has your grilled cheese ready and it's getting cold...a SMALL percentage of loans are non performing...I've been investing in real estate for way too long...and unless the property is in an absolute warzone...most lenders are asking for more than $1.00(one dollar) when they sell these properties after foreclosure...if you know where I can find some $1.00 properties, I've got a bank account waiting to be drained...if you don't understand accounting, don't quote numbers out of context...the 65 trillion in CDS is forward 30 40 and up to 100 years...in the depression, how long did it take to get back to 90%+ par value...I'm sorry, what..you have never studied the HLOC numbers...and you are one of the many who quote the RTC as having cost 160 billion dollars when the actual GAO report shows around 85 billion ??? You keep buying those canned beans for the great mad max event...and the rest of us will buy out of the money options and watch as you sell back your gold for 300.00 in july of 2010...remember bubba..gold goes DOWN in value during economic downturns..it only goes up during the "sizzle" part of the publics fears...unless you are crossing some border after a revolution and need to convert it to another currency...well you can't eat gold...sorry to disappoint you... ReplyIs it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
"By my estimation, we are currently at the low end of the fair-value range for the S&P 500."The most polite way I have heard it put yet. But there is a gem in your conclusion...markets do not typically move in a straight line although almost straight down from May sure seems like it. We need a relief rally to shake out the weaker, later shorts. Then you can get your correction to the downside target. The problem is everyone else on the street knows this. What to do? I find it particularly disturbing that three institutions I would normally consider relatively sane and sober have forecast the biggest rally of all time in the second quarter. Shagging balls in the rough is normally my job; these guys are supposed to be on the green. What is going on here? Reply
e
Is it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
I'm unsure of this back-up the truck metaphor? The author suggests it's time to bet the farm but, he admits only a technical short term signal. The average Joe would be confused. Likewise, the money is already on our boy with three Arabic names. They know that he could never beat the powers that be, that is why they got out the Reps to vote for him in the Dem Caucus in Iowa. John Edwards is the only one who could have done it. Nothing is left now but the crying. They even panned Hillary so no Rep women could vote for a woman. There is no way in this racist and reactionary country that a dark man with an Arab name is going to sit in the White house. The Supreme Court will surely find a way like they did in 2000. Look out for race riots in November. Stocks are the last place to park until the dust has settled. ReplyIs Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
Reinko said: "This is also one of the ways to avoid down writings; when it is temporary gone as collateral and is on the balances of the FED, it is not marked to market value."Collateral does not leave the balance sheet when it is pledged to a lender. When collateral is pledged on an overnight (or a 28 day) borrowing, you'd better believe that it is mtm daily. In the case of the tri-party repos when the Fed is borrowing, the third party prices the collateral and make margin calls on deficiencies.
www.newyorkfed.org/abo...
There are two main types of settlement methods for repos: triparty and “delivery vs payment” or DVP. Fed repos are done via triparty settlement, which means that the Fed and the primary dealers use a triparty agent to manage the collateral. In a triparty repo, both parties to the repo must have cash and collateral accounts at the same triparty agent, which is by definition also a clearing bank. The triparty agent will ensure that collateral pledged is sufficient and meets eligibility requirements, and all parties agree to use collateral prices supplied by the triparty agent.
The Desk selects winning propositions on a competitive basis. Each dealer is requested to present the rates they are willing to pay for the agreements versus various types of collateral. The three types of general collateral, or GC, the Fed accepts are marketable U.S. Treasury securities (including STRIPS and TIPS), certain direct U.S. agency obligations, and certain agency “pass-throughs” (or Mortgage Backed Securities, often called MBS).
The significance of the “GC” designation on the collateral is that GC collateral is fungible. That is, the Fed is not looking for specific securities; rather it is looking for any of the eligible securities that do not have scarcity value. As such there are a number of securities that would satisfy the requirements, and neither the dealer nor the Fed needs to know which specific security or securities are going to ultimately be pledged to a winning proposition. The Desk establishes relative values across the three collateral types, and then uses these values to selects the best bids presented.
The New York Fed makes payment for the securities by crediting the reserve account of the dealer's triparty agent, a commercial bank. This act of crediting the bank's account actually creates reserve balances. When the repo matures, the dealer returns the loan plus interest, and the Fed returns the collateral. The return of funds to the Fed extinguishes the reserves that were originally created by the repo.
Reply
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
Go back and look at a chart of the dollar index. We have recently had a higher high on an upswing for the first time in TWO YEARS. What is the definition of trend? Would you not suppose that the first occurance in two years MAY be early signs of a reversal? Cut Kathy some slack. ReplyIs Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
What I forgot:In the link under the column 'non borrowed reserves' you see a minus 124 billion number, for years on a row the real reserves were about plus 40 billion so the FED has about 165 billion in 'grade investment' collateral.
This is also one of the ways to avoid down writings; when it is temporary gone as collateral and is on the balances of the FED, it is not marked to market value.
Conclusion: In reality lots of banks have to be under water when it comes to their reserves, without new capital the tax payer will likely pay the bill over and over again. Reply
Undone
Is it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
You might be right but Sept is a bad month for the market so nobody will buy until after Sept, also you have a Presidential election where a Dem is expected to win but the big money guys are Republican.What do you want to bet the big money guys will be moving their money out of the country if Obama wins?
Its only when the profits start that big money will come back to the market.
So I suggest waiting until Sept to buy I'm hoping for more bad news so I can buy cheap. Reply
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
I don't agree with, quote:The notion of the Fed being the lender of the last resort has helped US stocks and the US dollar recover.
And to Lex: Right now the FED has five programs of 'providing liquidity' to the markets, the total effect on de despository institutions (the commercial banks, not the investment banks) can be seen in the FED h3 release.
Look in the column 'non borrowed reserves', those are the real reserves of the commercial banks. Link:
www.federalreserve.gov.../
You are right with your 'we'll take you MBS crap in exchange for treasuries' but that is only the program for the primary (Federal bond) dealers.
In practice lots of that pleged collateral is worth only 70 cents on the dollar, stuff like that comes from the so called 'banking books' where mark to market value is not done very often.
(Banks have market books and bank books.)
So it is only a matter of time, the down writings will continue for a long long time because some easy calculations yield that there could be up to 10 trillion in US family home equity vaporize.
If from that loss only 20% makes it to the banking books we are looking at 2000 billion in down writings related to family housing only.
And what the value is all that collaterized debt obligation stuff is, nobody knows but it is still often 'investment grade AAA' rated and thus acceptable for the FED to take as collateral.
In case you still think the FED has it all under control because they understand the situation: At the end of 2006 Bernanke stated that the high housing prices were just a mere reflection of a strong US economy... Reply