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- On Oil, Gold and Flying Pigs [view article]
- Economic Upswing? Check Back Next Year [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Exxon vs. the S&P 500 [view article]
- The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing [view article]
- My Ten Predictions for 2008 [view article]
- Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago [view article]
- Historic Financial Collapse Underway? [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- The Media Has Mistaken a Major Re-allocation for a Recession [view article]
- AmEx Misses: The Bear Trap Thickens [view article]
- Stock Markets Nearing Important Bottom [view article]
loading ...Recent SPY Articles
- A Fed Rate Hike Won't Solve the Current Crisis
- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Economic Upswing? Check Back Next Year
- On Oil, Gold and Flying Pigs
- Thursday Outlook: Overbought!
- Strategists' 2008 S&P 500 Price Targets
- Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago
- Three One-Percent Gains in Five Days
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Full List of Articles »
The Most Bullish Sign I've Seen In Awhile [view article]
Some posters asked the right question and here is a longer term look at the series. The cash level is the highest in about 5 years, but looking at 40 years of data, we are just off all-time lows. Sell this rotten maggot infested market that only rises when volume is low.Cash Levels Reply
Beware of the 2008 Sucker Rally [view article]
Hello prospector, don't you see that with his offer, Warren put a minimum value to MBI or ABK, below which they won't fall. Before his offer, the market, and short sellers were treating them as if they were going down to zero. This has a tremendous psychological value of assurance, which propped up the market.And I absolutely agree with you that MBI or ABK most probably don't have enough junk in their portfolio to take them to bankruptcy !!! Reply
Is an Accommodating Fed Really Bullish for Stocks? [view article]
Is 5 years and two tightening cycles really enough time to say anything about the relationship? ReplyTo Short or Not to Short [view article]
Why do I get dividend from QID ?Look finance.yahoo.com/q/hp...
Isn't it supposed to short and pay dividend to others ? Reply
The Most Bullish Sign I've Seen In Awhile [view article]
highly negative sentiment in fact can be correct . You can feel bad for a long time,and reality can be bad for an equally long time . Things can get worse than you feel about things. You can become more than hgihghly negative, you can get suiciadally depressed. Things don't have to be better than people feel about things ReplyThe Advantages of Short Selling [view article]
"There has to be an applicable symmetry to your investment process, otherwise you are deluding yourself that you can pick "winners", if you can't pick relative "losers" as well." This is one part but you must consider the payoffs as well: shorting gives you a maximum gain of 100% and maximum loss of unlimited, with a long position being the reverse. Given the payoffs, it actually makes more sense to focus on being long.Reply
rosenman
The Advantages of Short Selling [view article]
I concur. If you only go long a basket of picked stocks, it's difficult to do anything but follow the ups and downs of the broad market. If you go long stocks you like and short those you don't, you avoid mimicking the indexes. ReplyBeware of the 2008 Sucker Rally [view article]
Repeat it enough, and it's like a self-fulfilling prophecy. My stocks are still up over last year. I am holding on though, I am long term and I am not a 'weak hand' that will be shaken out. ReplyFinancials Flash a Warning Signal [view article]
All that off balance crap will go back to the 'official' balances because next year there will be the Basel 2 system of measuring commercial bank reserves anyway.At present off balance items do not count in the bank reserves and to make it all the more better; according to the Federal Reserve h3 release combined on balance reserves are in the negative.
To be precise: 18009 miilion US$ in the red, go to the next link and look in the column 'non borrowed (3)':
www.federalreserve.gov.../ Reply
Active vs. Passive Investing: There's No Real Choice [view article]
well since the chinese zodiac is cyclical, wouldn't there be no first and no last? Its like asking the question which came first - the recession or the boom? ReplyBeware of the 2008 Sucker Rally [view article]
Warren Buffet is a very smart investor. Absolutely, he's trying to make a profit off of the "deal" he offered to the bond insurers. He offered to take ALL of the nearly 0% risk muni bonds off of the "big three" insurers hands and leave them with the subprime junk bonds. This effectively removes any certainty of income for the companies in the future after the subprime worries are a thing of the past.Buffet, in my opinion, doesn't care if MBI or ABK goes bankrupt. I don't believe there's enough junk in their portfolio that would cause them to go bankrupt. Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Buffet, is in competition with MBI and ABK. Why would Warren not want 2 less competitors.
The offer he made was to help speed up the insolvency process of the insurers in question. Reply
Is an Accommodating Fed Really Bullish for Stocks? [view article]
This market downturn is hard to analyze by the usual sentiment/Fed stuff. I don't see why one should try to identify a bear market with a "how do you feel about that" analyst's couch approach. A bull/bear transition is simply a major change in trend and thus lends itself to technical analysis very well (which in an efficient market accounts for the feelings, the Fed, and a bunch of things you have failed to consider). We have reliable things like the Dow Theory and a simple A/D chart comparison between Nasdaq '99-'01 and the S&P 500 now that agree that we are starting a bear. To compare the last bull/bear transition to now, you must swap tech for retail. Tech led the last bull and was the first thing to breakdown technically into a bear trend. It was many, many months later that the broad market made the bear turn. Eventually nearly everything got clobbered with collateral damage far away from the transition's them. The current bull was led by the housing boom and the retailers. Housing rolled over in mid '05 and retail in early '07. Now the broader market is following this lead with the transports and metals being the last to be derailed (even agri may get it's turn on the chopping block). You don't get this kind of slow cascading of theme groups in a quick profit-taking bull market correction, where everything gets hit in a brief 3 month or less blitz and then they're all off to the races again. This is a transition, not a correction. And the theme of this transition is play money - global debt instruments created out of thin air and stacked into a house of cards. Now with a puff of air the cards are tumbling and I'm not sure how much good the Fed, the governments, or anyone can do by throwing more play money at it. ReplyBeware of the 2008 Sucker Rally [view article]
the end is nowhere in sight i tell you. pack up and leave is the trade of the year ReplyIs an Accommodating Fed Really Bullish for Stocks? [view article]
This market downturn is hard to analyze via the usual sentiment/Fed rate stuff. I don't see why one should try to identify a bear market with the "how do you feel about that" analyst's couch approach (bull/bear surveys and what not). A bull/bear transition is simply a major change in trend and thus lends itself to technical analysis very well. We have reliable things like the Dow Theory and a simple chart comparison between the Nasdaq of '99-'01 and the S&P 500 now that all agree and indicate the start of a bear. To compare the last bull/bear transition to now, you must swap tech for retail. Tech led the last bull and was the first to turn down. It was many, many months later that the broader market did the turn to bear. Eventually nearly everything got hit. In the current bull, the housing boom and retail led and housing rolled over in mid '05, then retail in mid '07. Now the broad market is following this lead with the metals being the last to be derailed (even Agri may have its turn on the chopping block). You don't get this kind of slow cascading of theme groups in a quick profit-taking bull market correction, where everything gets hit in a brief 3 month or less blitz and then they're all off to the races again. This is a transition not a correction. And the theme of this bull and bear is fiat money - debt "instruments"... where money is created out of thin air and stacked into a house of cards. Now with a puff of wind the cards are tumbling and I'm not sure how much good the Fed, the governments, or anyone can do throwing more fiat money at it. ReplyIs an Accommodating Fed Really Bullish for Stocks? [view article]
Interesting, but aren't there other ways to read this chart? Isn't it also saying that after the Fed lowered rates in 2000 and 2001, a huge rally followed? Then, as the rally progressed, they felt the need to raise the rates again to keep inflation down.Since they are lowering rates much more aggressively now than they did back then, the chance for an even bigger rally - or at least a near-term sideways range - is there. Reply