SPDRs (SPY)

All Comments on SPY

  • commenter
    globalmacro
    May 02 07:07 PM
    Overbought Breadth Levels [view article]
    im lerning, thanks. Reply
  • commenter
    globalmacro
    May 02 06:38 PM
    It's a Rally and It Feels So Good [view article]
    I think this entire discussion is hilarious. We have a negativity bubble on our hands plain and simple. Every single blogpost on seeking alpha in the last 6 months (with the exception of some great contrarians) has been bearish. There is absolutely no comparison between now and 2000-2002. From 2000-2002, you could not find a bearish pundit. Everyone was trying to explain how its different this time and earnings and profits don't matter. We had PEs of 2,000 and still you couldn't find a bear. This time the global growth story is absolutely driving the global economic picture. We didn't have the rest of the world to fall back on in 2000 because the emerging world was still recovering from the late 90s.

    You're all insane. If you don't want to lose your shirt, do some hedging, but in general you should be net long for at least the next 12-18 months. Believe it or not, that is the contrarian play. I've been saying it since late January. Here's an example of a bunch of permabear lemmings being proven wrong: seekingalpha.com/artic...     Reply
  • commenter
    billddrummer
    May 02 06:06 PM
    Thinking In Themes: What Color Are Your Markets? [view article]
    If in fact money is moving slowly back into consumer discretionary stocks, then the worst of the economic contraction may be over. If, on the other hand, the movement represents a profit-taking exercise and discretionary spending continues to fall, with negative earnings surprises in the 2nd quarter from consumer discretionary companies, money may move back to consumer staples with a vengeance. Reply
  • commenter
    BrucePile
    May 02 05:49 PM
    It's a Rally and It Feels So Good [view article]
    This is a very dangerous stock rally to buy into for several reasons. But let's look at just one, the Iran thing.

    Everyone knows Bush and Iran have been threatening a major rumble for years now, but there are some serious signs it may be coming to a head in this merry month of May (when you really might want to sell and go away). Global intel analysts have been buzzing about this for over a month, but even the mainstream U.S. News & World Report had an eye opening article; go to usnew.com/blogs/news-d... us-may-be-headed-for-w... and you can read some of the analysts at analyst-network.com/ar....

    When you start connecting these 6 dots and several others, an picture starts to emerge.

    The Israeli strike on a building in Syria in Sept. '07 was billed as a strike on a nuclear facility. But there is doubt on the photos presented as being that, some clumsy trumping up efforts some say similar to the WMD presentations in late '02 prior to the early '03 invasion of Iraq. The practical purpose may have been the cold war ploy of forcing the newly installed anti-aircraft electronics to be turned on so as to get an electronic signature for them under a likely invasion air route. And the political purpose may have been expressed by Bush last week commenting on the "strike" - "We have an interest in sending a message to Iran and the world for that matter, about just how destabilizing nuclear proliferation would be in the Middle East".

    CENTCOM chief Fallon, who has been opposed to an Iran strike and would not carry it out has abruptly resigned for no apparent reason except some babble about creative differences. It is reported that Fallon got into dispute with Bush over orders to deploy a third aircraft corrier battle group to the Gulf to be on station in April. Fallon took the position that a third group was unnecessary unless a strike on Iran was in the offing, and refused to carry out the order. The third group is now there as "overlap" for a few days with the more normal two and in what they've called a "show of strength".

    UK's Guardian newspaper 7/16/07 had an article "Cheney Pushes Bush To Act On Iran" where a well placed source stated a common observation about George Bush by those closest to him - "Bush is not going to leave office with Iran still in limbo".

    It's been noted by several experts that if the strike on Iran happens, it would have to use the nuclear-tipped bunker busters to get the underground nuclear facilities. A development that has analysts worried is that Saudi Arabia reportedly started taking measures to prepare for nuclear fallout a day after Cheney met with Saudi officials on his attack planning tour last month. Okas, a government guided paper, said they started "national plans to deal with any sudden nuclear and radioactive hazards that may effect the Kingdom following expert warnings of possible attacks on Iran".

    Bunker busters ordered by Bush many months ago had the stipulation on them that they be delivered by early April '08.

    The topping of of the nation's SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) ordered by Bush while Oil is $100+ also had the stipulation that it be done by early April (it's full now).

    A major weather consideration for a strike involving the nuclear bunker busters is the monsoon prevaling winds that go from Iran over Pakistan and India starting in June and lasting through September. This would cause possible radiation problems, so a strike would preferably be done before June, which agrees with Bush's orders on the bunker busters and SPR being so concerned with "by April" fulfillment.

    Israel has just completed in April the largest scale ever defense drills for simulation of Syrian and Iranian incoming missles. The shelters have bben put into the utmost state of readiness ever.

    The last two Middle East invasions have been planned for execution on the dark of the new moon (the '03 version was launched a little early since they thought they knew where Saddam was). The next such date is May 5 and the only new moon left before June.

    Reply
  • commenter
    wsigler
    May 02 05:43 PM
    Macroeconomic Warning Goes Unheeded [view article]
    To I-THINK-NOT: First of all, aspadeaspade seems to me to have lost more sense and class than you can ever hope to have. You lost me as soon as you said "I will hopefully put some class into both aSpada and Karchad's comments. Many economic bubbles EMULATE....". You need to meet Mr. Webster...or does he, too, not have enough class for you. Reply
  • commenter
    GKM
    May 02 05:35 PM
    It's a Rally and It Feels So Good [view article]
    I will be very interested to see how the T-bill auction goes Monday. The Fed is already flooding the market with t-bills throw its various TAF et al. facilities. Why would anyone buy t-bills when you can go out and buy cheap sub-prime debt and turn it into t-bills.

    The rally scenario I cotton to is that the US has built up a steam of inflation and is about to release it upon the world with a strengthening dollar. It will feel good for a while but the hang over will be hell to pay.     Reply
  • commenter
    icandoitdon
    May 02 05:25 PM
    It's a Rally and It Feels So Good [view article]
    i'm with roger but for one caveat.

    if commodity prices...primarily food and energy....were to sustain a lasting reversal and push gas prices down to $2.50 or so we may have seen the lows. even then i don't see a runaway market because future earnings growth domestically will be hard to come by. multinationals might continue to perform but anemic retail and financial services take a big chunk out of earnings growth.

    as for government stats, the fact that wall street pays any attention to them at all boggles my mind. i would trust the collective judgment of the man on the street who feels inflation, underemployment, unemployment, lack of wage growth, etc. far more than any bureaucrat who is paid to cook the books.     Reply
  • commenter
    WAKEUP
    May 02 04:27 PM
    The Liquidity Tsunami [view article]
    "J. Bradford DeLong is a professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, chair of its political economy major, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting scholar at the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of San Francisco, and was in the Clinton administration a deputy assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury." . . . O.K., so the author has some very strong academic credentials, and some good political connections, as well. However, as with almost all scholarly tidbits, this article is heavily hedged to protect its venerable author with some cover, if it's wrong. One example, "...the US economy now needs to undergo at least a near recession if the Federal Reserve's easing is not to be excessive."
    Uh - huh. Yeah. Well, what if that doesn't happen, Bubba? What if it's a no-kidding, honest-to-God recession (which it is going to be, no matter what anyone does.) Oh, I see. Then the author will say, "Well, at least we put the brakes on the recession, to some extent.' No. It's coming, and it's outside the ability of anything other than time and market forces to mitigate it. These articles are simply an attempt to pretend that the scholarly set is never caught with its pants down.

    Reply
  • commenter
    sorgmot
    May 02 04:23 PM
    My Website
    Demographics of Jobless Claims [view article]
    Super article which everyone should read.

    It differentiates the real economy of real labor and assets from the money claims on the real economy. The real economy is contracting at an alarming rate. The Fed is tinkering with interest rates at the short end of the curve while rates at the long end are stuck or are moving up. Credit creation is in reverse, as losses in real asset values of long lived assets reduce the ability to borrow against them and eat away at the equity value in them.

    Towns and states are now revising their budgets downward as tax revenue fall.

    The Fed will soon have to go to 1% as it did in the last business cycle in 2003.

     Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    May 02 03:55 PM
    My Website
    Bring Back Greenspan? [view article]
    If Greenspan listened to his own research and thesis papers he conducted when he was younger and had moral scrupals, he would have stated clearly to the Administration that the housing bubble should have been pricked in 2006. That all mark to market deravitives given a AAA rating should be examined by the SEC very closely before being distributed to global investors.

    If I knew this in 2006 and I am simply a CEO of a small company, why didn't Greenspan do this? It's called greed at the expense of your entire nation and this is an attitude that is unfortunately far reaching.     Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    May 02 03:43 PM
    My Website
    Demographics of Jobless Claims [view article]
    Exactly. Now keep in mind that the wealthiest people on earth made there money at the beginning of a bust or the beginning of a boom cycle. I am familiar with CVS and under disclosure but I can say this company has been focusing a lot on the essential side of business, especially pharmaceuticals. What does that tell you? It tells me it's time to get into all essentials. The commodities market is simply reflecting this reality. Reply
  • commenter
    seeksome
    May 02 03:36 PM
    My Website
    Under The Radar News - Friday [view article]
    iPhone is the king of the hill Garmin give me a break nobody is going to dethrone Apple! Also for wholesale Apple gear and electronics,gold and so on.....visit seeksomething.com Thank You! Reply
  • commenter
    Roger
    Nusbaum
    May 02 03:30 PM
    My Website
    It's a Rally and It Feels So Good [view article]
    edhaq$, the answer to your question likely pertains to the birth/death adjustment. Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    May 02 03:28 PM
    My Website
    Macroeconomic Warning Goes Unheeded [view article]
    I will hopefully put some class into both aSpada and Karchad's comments. Many economic bubbles emulate from Republican economic policies surroundin major technological innovations and this trend has occured since 1870 and here's some other years with booms and busts: 1908, 1929, 1967, 1987, 2001 and now 2008. It is not coincidence that these dates coincide with big innovations such as railroad, radio, business computers, the Internet. The exception to true innovation, stock/market booms was this latest innovation into real estate and mark to market financial asset skullduggery.

    While the other innovations busted and then became mainstream industries with slow but multi-decade growth, real estate was reinvented and repackaged as derivatives, with a AAA rating applied when much of it was junk and sold globally. Global investor confidence is out the window. It was a bubble that created massive wealth, but only for those on the top of the Ponzi scheme. The intention and hope may have been that the U.S. consumer could outspend the correction in housing in other sectors but the liquidity crisis and inflation has now crushed consumer sentiment. While these other bubbles/innovation periods could recover, trickery financials gimmicks is NOT a multi-decade long industry that can create new jobs or fix Main's Street's or Financial Sector problems.

    Now to your point Karchad of making vast sums of money for forty years, it is obvious you have known when to invest into the bubbles and when to exit (I exit 3 months after when denial begins that a bubble exists in the first place). There is no shame of being a smart capatalist but it is not proper business etiquette to skewer other investor's whom are pointing out the real facts of what is going on in our economy, that the U.S. has begun losing value in a global competitive environment and does not have the proper fundamentals for a health economy in the mid-term.

    Last point: I am a Republican was ashamed at my party (politicians and bankers alike). Both groups took advantage of the distraction of this Administration's focus on the Iraq war & keeping the U.S. safe from nuclear 911 and fleeced the system. The profit's came from the little guy in America and this is heinous, selfish business practice. Republican's have the best capatalistic for the American economy in general but historically have never been able to time pricking/deflating the bubbles at the right time to avoid bust. For example, strong economists were shouting from the rooftops in early 2006 to prick the housing bubble.

    Reality is, the U.S. is going to go through 3-4 years of economic contraction, unless we innovate our way out of it and alt energy (including domestic drilling) to me is the global investment vehicle which if implemented will stave off depression. In any event, global recession is guaranteed based on my numbers (minus 2nd half year blip due to stimulus).     Reply
  • commenter
    User 150045
    May 02 03:13 PM
    Friday Outlook: The Dollar 'Returns' [view article]
    I second the above comments. Keep it up David Reply
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