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- Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing [view article]
- Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off [view article]
- This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force [view article]
- Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
- How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One) [view article]
- How Low the S&P 500 Could Go [view article]
- 2008 Price Targets Higher Than Mt. Everest [view article]
- Reading the S&P 500's Crashing Waves [view article]
- Fear Is Not a Strategy [view article]
- That Was the Week That Was [view article]
- On a Return to Normalcy: Dow 8,500 [view article]
- Too Late to Short SPY? An Historical Perspective [view article]
loading ...Recent SPY Articles
- How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One)
- How Low the S&P 500 Could Go
- Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing
- That Was the Week That Was
- Two More VIX Records
- This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force
- Reading the S&P 500's Crashing Waves
- Fear Is Not a Strategy
- Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off
- 2008 Price Targets Higher Than Mt. Everest
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Are We Doomed? Norman and Schiff Debate on America's Future [view article]
It appears the dollar may collapse but not for awhile. Beyond printing money, much of the burden will also fall on the U.S. taxpayer. Between inflation and tax cuts expiring it 2010, to new taxes this year and in 2011, the U.S. consumer will remain pinched. We'll see what this Administration or the new one will do about a massive, energy reform. While a collapse may or may not be avoided, such a policy would create millions of jobs and deflate a lot of the commodities bubble. If the U.S. collapses, I would assume it would occur in late 2010, or early 2011. What's the worst case? Americans eat government wheat pasta and cheese and we all get busy as one country on energy, first satisfying our own needs, then exporting globally.I simply feel that in between, housing must bottom and new jobs must be created in providing what the global consumer needs, this is food and energy. America has plenty of both, but energy policy as a crisis must be announced and a global investment opportunity created and the funds must be supplied by Treasury (We the People) for investors to have confidence in the opportunity.
Beyond this half of the year, a recovery will take years this time. It was a paradigm shift running America as bubble economies, fueled by easy credit. It will require paradigm changes to bring the country back to doing business based on fundamentals. During this time, businesses and consumers will both continue to cut spending. Without an energy crisis declared and Apollo style program implemented as a national security priority, numbers show a -20 GDP over a three to four year span. Some call this a depression. Reply
More on the Subprime Market and Derivatives [view article]
Re, the 87 crash: It was soley the result of an excessively "tight" monetary policy. That and nothing else. The proxy for the rate-of-change in real-gdp recorded its sharpest percentage decline since the inception of the data in 1917. ReplyFed Auction Futility [view article]
Borrowings from the FED for extended periods has been a reliable indicator of bank failures. Most of the time these banks can obtain another loan or roll over previous borrowings. Banks can be liquid and not solvent. And Banks can be solvent and not liquid. It's a mess that I can't sort out. ReplyMore on the Subprime Market and Derivatives [view article]
Isn't it ironic that those who were involved in selling products that should never have been sold ( IE. invented ) are getting away with being irresponsible? All these fancy products were poison to many small investors, banks, etc. The firms and people involved in these problems should be brought to justice in our courts, and, hopefully sent to jail and given heavy fines.Also, many of these "products" should be made illegal. Reply
Earthquake Insurance is Getting Risky [view article]
Flock of black Swans ahead. ReplyWall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
Good thing Buffet's wallet is big enough to satisfy his sweet tooth- letting him add Mars to his already well-stocked pantry of Coke, Dairy Queen and See's Candies. ReplyTiedeman
Why the Fed Should Leave Interest Rates Unchanged [view article]
The FED should sit pat. I think not cutting will actually inspire confidence in the FED. As for oil, it is due for a fall. ReplyMore on the Subprime Market and Derivatives [view article]
If you are saying when Goldman Sacks met in 2006 and decided that the CDO bonds that they created were Bad ,that is one thing . But when they shorted them instead of alerting the world ,you call it stabalizing the market and I call it GREED. ReplyWall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
Would like Eli's input on why the Mars merger would work. A la Smucker's deal? Combining like products, but not the same ones? ReplyWall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
Correct me if I'm wrong but if oil goes to $200 it would send gas prices to $5.90 at the pump. If the dollar is allowed to gain 10% today, oil would go to $70 or $2.07 at the pump. Sounds like a thumbs up or down call on a humungus number of Americans. ReplyGood News: Consumer Confidence Falls to 26-Year Low [view article]
The only major indices that didn't meet the 20% official bear market criteria were the DJIA and the Utility Index.Here are the drops from top to recent lows in most of the major inidices:
Index..............Cyc... High.................% Off at Recent Low
DJIA................14... -18.1%
S & P 500..........1576.06..... -20.2%
NASDAQ............2652... -24.7%
Utilities................ 555.71.......................... -17.1%
Transports..........54... -26.5%
Russell 2000........862.00....... -26.0%
Semis (SOX)........549.39...... -39.5%
Reply
Buy Companies That Sell What People Need [view article]
Agreed. Whenever I buy a stock I evaluate if I personally would use their products/services, and under what circumstances. Sometimes some of the more stable stocks out there and for boring things right under your nose. For example: concreteReply
Big Money Is Betting on Inflation, Not the Economy [view article]
Article could have been shortened to the title as it is correct and says it all!CrossProfit Reply
Good News: Consumer Confidence Falls to 26-Year Low [view article]
It's also interesting to note that we don't actually have a bear market yet. When was the last time consumer confidence was this low without an actual bear market? It's kind of hard to sell the idea that natural indicators point to a bottom in the market when the federal reserve has suddenly decided that its job is to prevent the market from behaving naturally. ReplyWhy the Fed Should Leave Interest Rates Unchanged [view article]
What if the Fed is done with cuts, dollar rebounds, and the oil still makes new highs?Is that the end of the world? Reply