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- A Fed Rate Hike Won't Solve the Current Crisis [view article]
- A Look at Long-Term Stock Valuations [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
- On Oil, Gold and Flying Pigs [view article]
- Economic Upswing? Check Back Next Year [view article]
- Strategists' 2008 S&P 500 Price Targets [view article]
- Historic Financial Collapse Underway? [view article]
- Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago [view article]
- Three One-Percent Gains in Five Days [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Exxon vs. the S&P 500 [view article]
loading ...Recent SPY Articles
- A Fed Rate Hike Won't Solve the Current Crisis
- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Economic Upswing? Check Back Next Year
- On Oil, Gold and Flying Pigs
- Thursday Outlook: Overbought!
- Strategists' 2008 S&P 500 Price Targets
- Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago
- Three One-Percent Gains in Five Days
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Full List of Articles »
Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago [view article]
Great comments, dude. Watch for the BKX to rally to its 200DMA at 82 as its level of greatest resistance, and watch for the SPX to rally to its 50DMA at 1310. Fannie and Freddie's inventory of foreclosed properties, mirrored in even greater proportion by U.S. mortgage banks (who have extended delinquency guidelines to reduce quarterly writedowns) is growing by leaps and bounds, and prices paid on sale are dropping precipitously. Remember that REOs and foreclosure sale values do not need to drop very much to wreak havoc on bank and agency capital, as they are leveraged 20-60:1. ReplyThings You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago [view article]
Good article,thanks.. ReplyCorcoran
Asset Class Correlations [view article]
Regarding the increased correlation with the Japanese yen the rate you are referencing is the USD/JPY so increases in stocks is related to increased strength of dollar versus yen and not strength in the yen. This could be closely related to leverage being applied/wound down by hedge funds etc (when they are more bullish on stocks) via the carry trade Replylingham
Financial Sector's Best Week in Years [view article]
The five day Freddie and Fannie Rescue Rally leaders are financial, IYF, 24%, home construction, ITB, 24%, India, 20%, and Retail 11%.Everything that is debt, has debt, and is consumer based has rallied strongly over the last five days; and thus is totally unsustainable.
In the linked article, I preseent a number of factors suggesting an immediate downturn; and present short selling suggestions as well as present a case for investing in gold. Reply
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
Stellar results for one of my favorite companies. ISRG is up 13.5% in the pre-market.Beyond the numbers, there isn't much surprise.. this company is consistently driving forward in a field where it has no competition.
Robotic surgery is here to stay, as I plan to stay with this stock for years to come.
You go girl! Reply
ancisco
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
So, Pelosi and Reid, with their single digit approval ratings, want to send the helicopters over again, shoveling out money just before the November election. Heaven help us. ReplyThe Prudent Bear Fund: Too One-Sided, Even in This Market [view article]
Maybe it's time to take a different look. How does Mr Tice earn his money? It's in the fees he collects, so I understand his Prudent Bear Fund as a service to the investor, if an investor believes the market will decline, you can invest in his fund and Mr Tice will go short in stocks and long in precious metals if overall market valuations are high, or if valuations are low, to preserve the fund from deteriorating too much, he will be long in stocks. So if you think the market is bullish, you withdraw your money and choose a different fund for that time period, very simple. Mr Tice offers a very reliable and predictable course of action, so it's up to the investor to decide WHEN to use his services and WHEN NOT. You are not at the whim of a fund manager and whether the fund manager believes that the market will be bullish or bearish now, most managers missing the right time to change anyways. I don't see it as a fund I buy when young and be rich when I retire, it's a fund to use in bearish times ReplyAsset Class Correlations [view article]
More Lep in more places.What passes for valid numerical analysis is appalling. Reply
jacquemotte
The Media Has Mistaken a Major Re-allocation for a Recession [view article]
I think they are being very kind to you, Jason. ReplyHistoric Financial Collapse Underway? [view article]
Err - yes Housing finally affordable to millions - however those millions are now unemployed.....i have never been to the US but people always tell me how shocking the homeless problem is there.....homeless people everywhere.....wow....... think it is going to get alot more crowded on homeless street..... ReplyTargeting Low-Correlation Assets for a Portfolio [view article]
Agreed. Although I wonder how long the high correlation between the various geographies will persist. I have a hunch that there will be times in the future when developed international indices and, especially, emerging markets could diverge from the US S&P500. Also, it might be better to use a pure commodities index for the comparison rather than IGE which is dominated by large oil companies.I took another look at the website I mentioned above and it appears that they are now using daily returns. Reply
AmEx Misses: The Bear Trap Thickens [view article]
Marvin, oh my. Keynesianism and Monetarism, you say. Yes, that's the ticket. Hang on a sec while I increase the size of my short position in Treasuries even farther... done. Now, what were you saying again?America is broke. Get it through your head. All that's left is to decide whether to inflate away the remaining wealth of the few solvent citizens for the sake of the profligate many or to watch asset prices collapse as the market gets its head out and returns valuations to reasonable levels. In neither case will the nation's total wealth or economic capacity increase. Doesn't matter to me; I'm going to profit either way. How about you? Reply
Historic Financial Collapse Underway? [view article]
Yes I understand that Fannie and Freddie shareholders will be wiped out, but what I would like to know is the timing for this. In other words, will we know the status of shareholders quickly, or might this issue drag on for months as it is contended? Thanks to anyone who can answer this.Reply
U.S. Markets: Is it Time to Throw Caution to the Wind? [view article]
With 30 years in the corporate world I have yet to see a one page report that told the full story.Executives that demand one pagers normally have their minds made up in advance, right or wrong.
Reports should be long enough to cover the subject matter.
They should not be defined by some arbitrary limit.
Excellent article. Reply
Asset Class Correlations [view article]
The majority of correlation coefficients shown are actually not that good. When you get down to 0.2 - 0.6, the association between the pairs of variables can still be jumpy. In fact, if you showed the X-Y scatter plots for a number of these matrix elements, you would probably be surprised at how noisy, jumpy and unrelated a lot of the series are. X-Y scatter plots would likely reveal problems and cause readers to ask why you tried to correlate a lot of these pair-vectors in the first place. At values of r=0.8 (-0.8) you will truly begin to see very tight patterns and tight trending between the data being correlated. The goal is to focus on high negative correlation, and the large negative correlation between the dollar and gold is actually good, since you would want to load a portfolio with something that is going to go up, on average, when the dollar goes down. (remember, though, gold is a commodity so the price is inflated in the direction in which the speculative buyers/sellers think it will go. ). Again, the majority of the coefficients are near-zero and low (less than r=0.2 or greater than r=-0.2) and uninteresting. Last, you are probably showing Pearson correlation, which can be biased by outlier pairs. Try using Spearman correlation, which is not biased by outliers. Reply