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- Short Week Was Plenty Painful [view article]
- More Woes Ahead for U.S. Stocks [view article]
- Options Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
- It's Still All About Oil [view article]
- Is This a Tradeable Bottom? [view article]
- CreditSights: Guardedly Optimistic About U.S. Loan Market [view article]
- What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report [view article]
- Path Dependency in the EU and U.S. Economies [view article]
- On Country Selection [view article]
- The Current Bear Market: Death by a Thousand Cuts [view article]
- A Selloff Follows the Out-of-the-Blue Rally - Not Good [view article]
- Market Action: Past, Present, Future [view article]
loading ...Recent SPY Articles
- CreditSights: Guardedly Optimistic About U.S. Loan Market
- Short Week Was Plenty Painful
- On Country Selection
- Path Dependency in the EU and U.S. Economies
- Investing for Retirement - Cramer's Mad Money (7/3/08)
- Independence Day Memories of a Stronger Dollar, Lower Costs
- What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report
- Market Action: Past, Present, Future
- Stimulus Checks Can't Offset Weakening Job Market
- Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
- Full List of Articles »
Bespoke's Sector Snapshot (7/2/08) [view article]
Thank you very much for the very nice trading range charts. Beautiful work ReplyU.S. Markets: Just How Oversold Are We? [view article]
We are in a bear market- avoid bottom fishing and value traps.Bottom will only be achieved after we stop looking for one. Meanwhile we may get bear market rallies, like the one we just had from March-May.
Reply
U.S. Markets: Just How Oversold Are We? [view article]
Yes, Cramer was trying to call a bottom several weeks ago using the S&P oscillator. Look where that got you. He also got everyone in Sociedad Quimica {SQM} right at its blowoff top! He said the oscillator worked every time in the past except 1987. Well, guess what! ReplyHawthorne
U.S. Markets: Just How Oversold Are We? [view article]
I well remember a stock that was drastically oversold and the talking heads were all saying it could go nowhere but up. That was in the Fall of 2001.It was called Global Crossing (then GX)... Reply
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
Tell our peace loving brothers in the middle east to tell their soverign wealth funds to stop going long oil (and our pension funds too)...."We don't have a queue!".... No, you don't need one when you can bid up the px and drive it higher.
Reply
The Current Bear Market: Death by a Thousand Cuts [view article]
A good guide to overall market bottoms since the commodity bull market began in earnest in '04 has been the steel capitulation days. You can draw a neat support trend line from about '05 on through a series of sharp two or three day smack downs in the index (DJUSST) or the individual stocks to the support line near the end of nearly every S&P selloff. That seems to have happened, to a large extent, today.Though I still think we're in a bear market, as I explained months ago, there are many signs that we're probably near the end of this selloff that made June such a historic bad month. Cramer is screaming "Play defense. Sell everything and buy the cereals and medicals." (he usually says that when you should be backing up the truck for the other stuff). Also, the VIX (the fear index) has spiked nearly to a trend line you can fit through the end of each selloff this year. The VIX seems to want to form an upsloping channel going into January '08 and a slightly downsloping channel coming away from that pivotal month.
I don't mean to criticize Cramer - well, OK I do. I enjoy his show, but he can lead you astray. His strong point is scoping out the good and bad areas of the market; but his day-to-day market calls seem to be wrong more often than right. Yesterday he said the oil inventories would be up and oil would be down big. Oil was up big today. And in an article today here at seeking alpha (The Most Bullish Thing), he said of yesterday's market action that the shorts had better cover. The shorts made a mint today. His show would be much better if he ceased the short-term pontification on the random noise and just did the bull and bear market area analysis, which he is pretty good at. Reply
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
americanenergycrisis.b... ReplyOptions Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
I think anyone with common sense could have.Here read this site,
americanenergycrisis.b...
You will see how easy it was for some people to say that the banks are freaking doomed. Reply
The Current Bear Market: Death by a Thousand Cuts [view article]
bluesmoke....perhaps you're right...but just where IS that re bottom? ReplyOptions Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
Philip,On May 28, you recommended buying BAC leaps at $4.70.
"This is good timing for Bank of America (BAC) [another one of our LTP holdings], who are exercising $1.9Bn worth of calls to up their stake in China Construction Bank (CICHF.PK) to 10.75% from 8.2% in China’s second largest bank. BAC’s original $3Bn investment in June 2005 is now worth about $30Bn. The 2010 $35 calls are just $4.70 and make a fantastic long-term investment."
Those same leaps are selling for $1.34 today. That's a 75% loss in 1 month. I don't think anyone could have predicted how bad June was going to be, but I'm curious how you would handle such value erosion in long term calls that you've bought, e.g. sell, hold, average down, if your reason for buying has not changed. Thanks. I enjoy reading your posts.
BD Reply
The Foreign Equity Conundrum [view article]
Hey Roger Nusbaum fans,Here's a link to an Roger Nusbuam interview with Chip Hanlon on greenfaucet.
www.greenfaucet.com/no...
They discuss the market and why Nusbaum thinks there could more downside for stocks to come. Reply
Sometimes a Bear Is Just a Bear [view article]
Hey Roger Nusbaum fans,Here's a link to an Roger Nusbuam interview with Chip Hanlon on greenfaucet.
www.greenfaucet.com/no...
They discuss the market and why Nusbaum thinks there could more downside for stocks to come. Reply
Going New-School About Indexing [view article]
Hey Roger Nusbaum fans,Here's a link to an Roger Nusbuam interview with Chip Hanlon on greenfaucet.
www.greenfaucet.com/no...
They discuss the market and why Nusbaum thinks there could more downside for stocks to come. Reply
Just How Bad Was June? [view article]
This market is making Wall Street weaker both here and abroad. Without the legitimacy it needs derived from a strong economy, other emerging countries are taking some of Wall Street's steam.Check out this article about the effects of the current economy on finance careers as well as the emergence of new exchanges in China.
www.greenfaucet.com/th... Reply
Days of Cheap Energy-Fueled Innovation Coming to an End [view article]
Great comments.I agree that ultimately the end of the oil era presents tremendous opportunities and innovation for true free market capitalism - but alas we don't live in a true free market. We live in an oligarchy controled by interests of big oil.
We could have addressed this proactively years ago but such action is rare in human history.
Unfortunately, this is a dynamic of the human situation. Most humans don't do anything about obesity or cancer until they are faced with dire circumstances...the disease is like a pregnancy (to paraphrase Nietzsche). Our economy is in a similar situation. Like others I am hopeful that innovation can overcome tradition. Reply