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Wednesday, Jul 2412:51 PMThree signs we're close to a market top, according to Mark Hulbert: 1) A bull market's best returns typically come right before it dies, with the average bull gaining 21% in the year before topping. The SPY is currently up 23% Y/Y. 2) Riskiest stocks do best ahead of tops, and growth stocks have trumped value stocks by triple the historical norm in the last year. 3) Contrary to expectations, a nosebleed level of a P/E ratio is not a necessary condition for a market top. |Wednesday, Jul 2412:51 PM| 5 Comments
Monday, Jul 1512:22 PMBAML hikes its year-end S&P (SPY) target to 1,750, with the team noting a strict medium-term fundamental/valuation analysis calls for just a 1,720 target. Experience shows, however, that tactical, technical, and sentiment models need also be incorporated. Adding those in boosts the gauge to 1,750 compared to the current price of 1,682. |Monday, Jul 1512:22 PM| Comment!
Tuesday, Jun 257:49 AMShort interest on S&P 500 (SPY) stocks fell to just 2.3% of outstanding shares last week, a 6-year low according to Markit. PNC's Bill Stone says short are so accustomed to losing money, they're wary of stepping in. Another interpretation may be the shorts - having banked some coin - covered their bets. |Tuesday, Jun 257:49 AM| Comment!
Friday, Jun 212:48 PMThe recent drawdown in the S&P 500 (SPY) is a minor one compared to historical norms, says Goldman in a research note today. While reiterating its view of a 1,750 closing level this year for the index, the team expects there could be another 3-5% down in this current move. |Friday, Jun 212:48 PM| 4 Comments
Thursday, Jun 2011:44 AMTechnicians are eying the S&P's (SPY -1.5%) breach today of its 50-day moving average. The 50-day line has held a number of times this year, putting chart-watchers in awe, writes Tomi Kilgore, but the unwritten rule says the more times a level is tested the more likely it is to break. Other ETFs of interest: IVE, SSO, IVV, SH, SDS, SPXU. |Thursday, Jun 2011:44 AM| 3 Comments
Wednesday, Jun 192:13 PMBond prices (TLT -0.7%) slip following the more upbeat assessment of the economy from the FOMC. Higher growth and lower unemployment projections spell maybe a quicker schedule for tapering and eventual tightening, but materially lower inflation expectations say the opposite. Stocks give up a bit of ground as well, the S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%). The dollar (UUP +0.3%) pops higher across the board. |Wednesday, Jun 192:13 PM| 4 Comments
Friday, Jun 79:02 AMStock index futures remain higher - the S&P 500 (SPY) +0.5% - but, be warned, Treasurys have decided the jobs number is a little fast for their liking. Higher earlier, TLT is now off 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.05% in the moments following the report, but has now jumped to 2.12%. |Friday, Jun 79:02 AM| 2 Comments
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Wednesday, Jun 57:23 AMThe S&P 500 (SPY) has another 15% upside this year, says Credit Suisse, lifting its year-end target to 1,730 from 1,640, and putting in place a modest forecast of 1,900 for 2014. Stocks remain cheap on a relative basis and earnings revisions have turned positive for the first time in year are among the reasons. Most important is too much pessimism over tapering. Central banks are still going to be expanding balance sheets, says the team, noting it took markets several months to peak after QE1 and QE2 ended. |Wednesday, Jun 57:23 AM| Comment!
Tuesday, Jun 410:51 AMBNP's "Love-Panic Index" signals a correction ahead as it crossed into "love" territory a few weeks back. Past experience says to brace for an average 12% decline in the S&P (SPY) over the next 6 months. The biggest drivers of the recent move into "love" have been State Street's Investor Confidence, the CFTC's COT report, falling short interest, rising Nasdaq to NYSE trading volume, and small caps (IWM) outperformance over large caps (IWB). |Tuesday, Jun 410:51 AM| 14 Comments
Monday, Jun 37:39 AMMarkets must be getting close to a bottom if rising chatter about the dreaded Hindenburg Omen is as good of an indicator as it's been in the past. Still basking in glory from foreshadowing the 1987 crash, the indicator is typically a false alarm, now dubbed "a common pick-up line at permabear cocktail parties," by Barry Ritholtz. |Monday, Jun 37:39 AM| 2 Comments
Friday, May 314:16 PMIt looks like Treasury yields finally got high enough to trigger a big rotation out of stocks and into fixed-income. Something seemed to snap when the 10-year rose to 2.20% this afternoon - the resulting action saw money pour out of equities (SPY -1.4%) and into Treasurys (TLT -0.3%), with the 10-year yield falling back to close at 2.14%. |Friday, May 314:16 PM| 9 Comments
Thursday, May 2311:05 PMThe smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out. |Thursday, May 2311:05 PM| 18 Comments
Wednesday, May 2210:09 AMStocks pop higher (SPY +0.6%) as Bernanke's prepared remarks for Congress suggest an increase in QE is as likely as a "tapering." Gold (GLD +2.6%) and Silver (SLV +3.8%) get a charge, and bonds (TLT +0.5%) move higher. It's green across the board, but not participating is crude oil (USO -0.4%). Watch live here. |Wednesday, May 2210:09 AM| 1 Comment
Tuesday, May 213:34 PMMajor hedge funds have suddenly turned bullish, reportedly buying massive amounts of OTC call options on the S&P 500 (SPY). The purchases have been large enough to send the VIX (VXX) higher even as stocks continue to gain. An important milestone - the implied volatility of S&P calls is now greater than that of puts, a true rarity since 2007. |Tuesday, May 213:34 PM| 19 Comments
Tuesday, May 218:49 AMExponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. |Tuesday, May 218:49 AM| 4 Comments