UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS)
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- Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
- Now is the Time for Inverse Sector ETFs [view article]
- Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
- Double Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
- ProShares UltraShort and UltraLong ETFs [view article]
- Commercial Real Estate Hits 7-Year Low [view article]
- UltraShort ProShares ETFs: 24 Ways to Benefit From Going Short [view article]
- Freddie and Fannie: Living in the Past [view article]
- Playing the Market as Delinquencies Continue to Rise [view article]
- Double Short ProShares ETFs: Volatility Goes Both Ways [view article]
- Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End? [view article]
- Inverse (Short) Sector ETFs [view article]
loading ...Recent SRS Articles
- Playing the Market in Difficult Times
- Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds
- Commercial Real Estate Hits 7-Year Low
- Playing the Market as Delinquencies Continue to Rise
- Double Short ProShares ETFs
- Double Short ProShares ETFs: Volatility Goes Both Ways
- Freddie and Fannie: Living in the Past
- Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End?
- Why the Housing Bill Won't Help the Housing Market
- The Nature of a Crowded Trade: This Time It's Housing
- Full List of Articles »
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Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
The local paper's October 10 front page news, ‘Nothing stops stock plunge,’ about the 679 point plunge in the stock market on Oct. 9, was juxtaposed with: ‘They all filled up for $20, and now they’re all wanted,’ and article about ‘possibly hundreds’ of criminals stealing from a local company by participating in a gas card scheme.Both articles are actually about the same thing: how far we have fallen, and how much farther down we have to go.
In hindsight it is easy to see what has happened, but this chronology points clearly to what you should be doing next:
1) Someone decided that instead of providing goods and services with real value, they could Get Rich Without Much Effort by tricking financially uneducated people into mortgage obligations called ARMs.
2) This was so successful that many, many other people noticed these people Getting Rich Without Much Effort. They formed corporations that would buy, repackage, and sell these mortgages, Getting Rich By Not Really Doing Anything That Produced Value.
3) These corporations were so successful that top financial people in The Leveraged Debt Industry noticed. They devised ways to profit even more by creating and trading derivatives on the packaged debt, Getting Far Richer By Not Really Doing Anything That Produced Value.
4) This was so successful that nearly every 'bank' and many corporations devised schemes to buy and sell these derivatized instruments, Getting Even Richer By Not Really Doing Anything That Produced Value.
5) Fast-forward to January 2006, The Housing Music Stops, and sales and prices start a precipitous decline.
6) Over the next year, many poor people with ARMs experience at least one interest rate reset, and start missing payments.
7) Now, three things happen in quick succession in 2007/08: housing prices decline by 25 - 40%, poor people start losing their houses to foreclosure, and the real estate market essentially stops functioning.
8) This changes the whole game for the ARM persons Getting Rich By Not Really Doing Anything That Produces Value, which by now has grown to be the size of a small army and includes nearly every bank:
a) They are now seen by the populace as liars and thieves
b) They have NO MARKET into which to sell their products
c) There is NO MORE PROFIT from their existing mortgages because a hefty chunk of each package isn't even returning the prinicpal
9) The Dow 14,000 market, largely based on and supported by this army of ARM purveyors falls by 90% before slowly recovering (we are 40-45% of the way there, as of today). Don't believe it? Just look at the 85% drop in the NASD 100 in 2000-2001.
What to do next:
If you are in the army above, it is time for you to find a new profession. I am dead serious about this. If you insist on continuing to try to sucker poor people, you will now fail. Try something that uses your strengths to produce something with real value for someone; go back to school. Industry is STARVING for good workers, engineers, nurses, etc. And you will feel alot better about yourself.
Stay in cash if you have any - Cash Is King, as they say.
We are in for a good whipping, and we all deserve it, but we can come out stronger for it.
In his prophetic vision in the early 1990's regarding the world's financial future, Rick Joyner saw that "everyone...was going down on their knees." No one was spared. He saw an ocean full of two kinds of ships - the hospital ships (churches, missionaries, orphanages) that were helping the wounded, and the warships. The warships were the banks. The amazing thing about the warships was that one would pull up alongside another ship and fire point-blank at it, destroying it. The banks were destroying each other. However, "somehow the banks will survive." - From "A Prophetic Vision for the 21st Century," by Rick Joyner, 1999 (a great read by the way).
Ezekiel 22:12 NIV
'In you men accept bribes to shed blood; you take usury and excessive interest and make unjust gain from your neighbors by extortion. And you have forgotten me, declares the Sovereign LORD.' Reply
Berengueres
Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
What is Jim Rogers doing?I bet he is doing the right thing right now...
Reply
Now is the Time for Inverse Sector ETFs [view article]
Before I consider trading SKF again, what happened to the holders of SKFs when trading was stopped? Were the shares just held (could not buy or sell), then the price just set when trading resumed (bid/ask)?On Mar 06 03:18 PM Malkiel wrote:
> No, you need a day like today to be able to buy your short positions
> (which you would do if you are convinced that the overall market,
> or at least a chosen sector of it, is not trending up or is moving
> up and down). I like to keep it much simpler though, say by moving
> back and forth between a general market index ETF (like QLD ultralong
> for the Nasdaq) and its short equivalent (QID in this case). you
> buy the short as high as possible into the rally and sell it at the
> next convenient low, where you then simultaneously buy the long to
> ride back up. This is where volatility is your friend and flat or
> straightup trends are deadly. It's also where free trading in a
> tax-deferred account becomes a nice profit machine... Reply
Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
I call jp morgan that were my 401k is located. I say what's the deal with my account I have stock, bonds, and a thing call smart retirement 2040they tell me they can't tell me what to do. Am thinking to myself what the hell are you doing. Does anybody know what to do in times like this or do we just hold on and drown like rats Reply
Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
Disgusted. ReplyPlaying the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
Where should you put your money during these desperate times that we are just starting to experience?'Hard as it is for a saver to say: just SPEND it. I'm getting that HDTV, a new computer, new bed....what the heck! I may as well demise in style. It can vanish on paper or pad my nest....
Note I will PAY, not buy on credit....lol Reply
Spackler
Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
If all hard assets and even softer assets are falling, what does that tell us - deflation of course. Can anyone tell me when gold has risen over a long term period where all other assets were falling (long silence). That's right folks, never. Gold is the next victim to this delationary period. After the panic dies down, gold will fall to the $600 area. Too many gold bugs guessing inflation. To have inflation, you must have buyers. Where are the buyers? ReplyPlaying the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
This seems more like gambling than investing. Personally, I'm moving to an almost all cash position until there is some encouraging news on the economy and then I'll start gradually moving back into stocks. I may miss the bottom and part of the recovery, but I'd rather be safe. Commodities (including gold) are too risky for me. ReplyPlaying the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
Whatever the market does, let this crisis get it across to all investors once and for all that they should never enter the market without their exit strategy on. Stay Protected! Asset allocation, Rebalancing and portfolio diversification are not enough for risk managament in markets of our generation, different than those in the past though no one really wants to acknowledge that. But we have an unregulated hedge fund industry out there , an options derivatives market that also creates huge leverage, global interdependencies etc. ALWAYS have an intelligent exit strategy that is adjusting to the stock's behavior and overall market conditions. ReplyPlaying the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
It'll go "to the moon Alice, to the moon..." ReplyPlaying the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
Any predictions as to what SKF will do Thursday, assuming the short-sell ban expires as scheduled Wednesday night? Is there any catchup for SKF or are the gains that it's missed out on in these past couple of weeks lost? ReplyLathrop
Playing the Market in Difficult Times [view article]
Anyone wondered what it would be like if everyone tried to redeem their shares in double inverse funds at the same time? Anyone wanna try? Yeah, I didn't think so. Whats the $NYMO telling us? (Hint: Oversold) ReplyShort Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
anyone know how far out banks do profit projections? calculations on what percentage of people will default? i assume its at least 50 yrs? don't they know what to expect? PS-SRS is doing GREAT ReplyDouble Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
I figured it out myself. DXD issued a 6% dividend. I take back my insinuations that the DXD ETF is less than credible. ReplyProShares UltraShort and UltraLong ETFs [view article]
UYG what am I not getting here? It says it tracks the DJUSFN index, with 2x the return. DJUSFN is up 6.07% today. So UYG should be up 12.14%. However as we speak UYG is up a measly 2.2%. Reply