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Thursday, May 23, 11:05 PM The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out. 8 Comments
Wednesday, May 22, 10:09 AM Stocks pop higher (SPY +0.6%) as Bernanke's prepared remarks for Congress suggest an increase in QE is as likely as a "tapering." Gold (GLD +2.6%) and Silver (SLV +3.8%) get a charge, and bonds (TLT +0.5%) move higher. It's green across the board, but not participating is crude oil (USO -0.4%). Watch live here. Comment! [On the Move]
Tuesday, May 21, 3:34 PM Major hedge funds have suddenly turned bullish, reportedly buying massive amounts of OTC call options on the S&P 500 (SPY). The purchases have been large enough to send the VIX (VXX) higher even as stocks continue to gain. An important milestone - the implied volatility of S&P calls is now greater than that of puts, a true rarity since 2007. 19 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 8:49 AM Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. 4 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 5:40 AM Goldman Sachs lifts its forecasts for the S&P 500 (SPY), as David Kostin and company now say they expect the index to gain 5% by year-end to 1,750, 9% to 1,900 in 2014, and 10% to 2,100 in 2015. The rationale: expectations of above-trend real GDP growth beginning next year (Mr. Evans' "escape velocity" ?) coupled with P/E multiple expansion to 16x. Furthermore, dividends should rise ~30% over the next two years, bolstering the firm's claim that dividend-paying equities (DVY) are one of the only places U.S. investors can look to for income-generation. Some of GS's dividend picks, as listed on MarketWatch: Mattel (MAT), Ford (F), Philip Morris (PM), Walgreen (WAG), Chevron (CVX), U.S. Bancorp (USB), GE, Western Union (WU), Dow Chemical (DOW), and AT&T (T). 11 Comments
Sunday, May 19, 9:52 AM There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. 51 Comments
Saturday, May 18, 9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. 4 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 17, 8:13 AM Thomas Lee lifts his year-end S&P 500 (SPY) forecast to 1,715 from 1,580 as the bull has already outrun his expectations. His team sees clues economic performance is picking up, including the outperformance of semiconductors (XSD) vs. transports (IYT), and the steepening of the 10 year/30 year Treasury curve. Risk/reward is particularly appealing in tech (XLK), healthcare (XLV), and financials (XLF). Comment!
Tuesday, May 14, 8:03 AM More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. 16 Comments
Tuesday, May 14, 7:52 AM Tepper stays bullish. Confounding gnomes who whispered the hedge fund honcho was turning cautious on stocks, David Tepper tells the CNBC crew the wave of liquidity that turned him bullish in the first place is getting even bigger. Fed tapering? So what, he says. The U.S. budget deficit over the next 6 months will only be $100B, while the Fed is scheduled to buy about $500B. That's $400B coming out of the bond market and going to investors who can buy more fixed-income, more real estate, more stocks. SPY erases losses and gets back to flat premarket. 11 Comments [Breaking News]
Saturday, May 11, 10:13 PM "They say unemployment rate, but they really mean" the S&P 500 (SPY), says David Rosenberg, referring of course, to the esteemed members of the FOMC. "After all, to get the wealth effect to work on spending, you have to generate the wealth," he continues. As for the sustainability of the rally in both equities and fixed income, Rosenberg is having déjà vu: "Distortions caused by negative real interest rates, the mis-pricing of risk and promotion of leverage sounds a lot like the previous cycle … enjoy it while you can." (Also: NYSE margin debt signals return of leverage) 10 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 10, 8:33 AM The S&P 500 (SPY) has yet to have even a 4% correction this year, with the only other time since 1980 the index made it to this point without one being 1995, according to Miller Tabak. The S&P went on the finish 1995 with a 34% advance that was but a small precursor to gains yet to come. One difference: 1995's gain was led by cyclicals and tech. This year's by defensive sectors (though showing signs of rotation). 4 Comments
Monday, May 6, 8:40 AM Laszlo Birinyi ups his S&P 500 (SPY) target this year to 1,900, the index having already hit his original 1,600 guess. He says this year's bull market most resembles the patterns etched in 1982 and 1990, suggesting another 20% of upside. "In addition to the historical parallels, we still view sentiment as subdued and nowwhere approaching extremes." 11 Comments
Monday, May 6, 7:27 AM The S&P 500 (SPY) is fairly valued, says Goldman, but opportunity lies in cyclicals (XLY, XLE, XLI, XLB) which are more undervalued vs. defensives (XLU, XLP, XLV, XTL) than at any time in the last 15 years. "Given the 4 P/E multiple point head start, even a slight valuation normalization should translate into outperformance of cyclicals over defensives during the next 12 months." 1 Comment
Monday, April 29, 10:40 AM Not confirming the nice move in the S&P (SPY) since March is the 10-year Treasury yield, today hitting another 2013 low of 1.65% (TLT +0.2%). Yields and stocks have move broadly together for years - especially so for the last year - but began to diverge about 2 months ago. Another notable divergence is the Russell 2000 (IWM) - trending lower for the last 6 weeks. 3 Comments
Wednesday, April 24, 10:10 AM Turning 10 this week, the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has outperformed the SPY by 5,900 basis points since its launch. The RSP was one of the pioneers of equal-weighting - created in the aftermath of the 2000 bust to give investors exposure to stocks without so high a focus on large caps (the so-called "Cisco effect"). It's time for a renaming to the "Apple effect" as QQQE - the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted ETF - has outperformed the QQQ by 850 bps YTD. 3 Comments

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