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Friday, June 14, 11:08 AM The IMF cuts its 2014 U.S. GDP growth outlook to 2.7% from 3%. The organization cut its 2013 forecast for U.S. growth to 1.7% from 2% in April. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Breaking News]
Tuesday, June 11, 6:44 AM S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.8% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.9% as markets elsewhere fall sharply overnight. The Nikkei declined 1.5% and the yen rose 0.6% after the BOJ offers up no new candy and sounds a bit more upbeat on the economy. Europe (FEZ) is off 1.7%. Treasurys continue to slide, the 10-year yield now up to 2.26%. 4 Comments [On the Move]
Friday, June 7, 9:02 AM Stock index futures remain higher - the S&P 500 (SPY) +0.5% - but, be warned, Treasurys have decided the jobs number is a little fast for their liking. Higher earlier, TLT is now off 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.05% in the moments following the report, but has now jumped to 2.12%. 2 Comments
Thursday, June 6, 7:52 AM It may be time to get ready for a reversal on stocks, says Bespoke, noting the S&P 500's (SPY) 10-day advance/decline line has plunged to an extreme oversold reading - a curious move given the index itself remains above its 50-day moving average. 1 Comment
Wednesday, June 5, 7:23 AM The S&P 500 (SPY) has another 15% upside this year, says Credit Suisse, lifting its year-end target to 1,730 from 1,640, and putting in place a modest forecast of 1,900 for 2014. Stocks remain cheap on a relative basis and earnings revisions have turned positive for the first time in year are among the reasons. Most important is too much pessimism over tapering. Central banks are still going to be expanding balance sheets, says the team, noting it took markets several months to peak after QE1 and QE2 ended. Comment!
Tuesday, June 4, 10:51 AM BNP's "Love-Panic Index" signals a correction ahead as it crossed into "love" territory a few weeks back. Past experience says to brace for an average 12% decline in the S&P (SPY) over the next 6 months. The biggest drivers of the recent move into "love" have been State Street's Investor Confidence, the CFTC's COT report, falling short interest, rising Nasdaq to NYSE trading volume, and small caps (IWM) outperformance over large caps (IWB). 14 Comments
Monday, June 3, 7:39 AM Markets must be getting close to a bottom if rising chatter about the dreaded Hindenburg Omen is as good of an indicator as it's been in the past. Still basking in glory from foreshadowing the 1987 crash, the indicator is typically a false alarm, now dubbed "a common pick-up line at permabear cocktail parties," by Barry Ritholtz. 2 Comments
Friday, May 31, 4:16 PM It looks like Treasury yields finally got high enough to trigger a big rotation out of stocks and into fixed-income. Something seemed to snap when the 10-year rose to 2.20% this afternoon - the resulting action saw money pour out of equities (SPY -1.4%) and into Treasurys (TLT -0.3%), with the 10-year yield falling back to close at 2.14%. 9 Comments
Thursday, May 23, 11:05 PM The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out. 18 Comments
Wednesday, May 22, 10:09 AM Stocks pop higher (SPY +0.6%) as Bernanke's prepared remarks for Congress suggest an increase in QE is as likely as a "tapering." Gold (GLD +2.6%) and Silver (SLV +3.8%) get a charge, and bonds (TLT +0.5%) move higher. It's green across the board, but not participating is crude oil (USO -0.4%). Watch live here. 1 Comment [On the Move]
Tuesday, May 21, 3:34 PM Major hedge funds have suddenly turned bullish, reportedly buying massive amounts of OTC call options on the S&P 500 (SPY). The purchases have been large enough to send the VIX (VXX) higher even as stocks continue to gain. An important milestone - the implied volatility of S&P calls is now greater than that of puts, a true rarity since 2007. 19 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 8:49 AM Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. 4 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 5:40 AM Goldman Sachs lifts its forecasts for the S&P 500 (SPY), as David Kostin and company now say they expect the index to gain 5% by year-end to 1,750, 9% to 1,900 in 2014, and 10% to 2,100 in 2015. The rationale: expectations of above-trend real GDP growth beginning next year (Mr. Evans' "escape velocity" ?) coupled with P/E multiple expansion to 16x. Furthermore, dividends should rise ~30% over the next two years, bolstering the firm's claim that dividend-paying equities (DVY) are one of the only places U.S. investors can look to for income-generation. Some of GS's dividend picks, as listed on MarketWatch: Mattel (MAT), Ford (F), Philip Morris (PM), Walgreen (WAG), Chevron (CVX), U.S. Bancorp (USB), GE, Western Union (WU), Dow Chemical (DOW), and AT&T (T). 11 Comments
Sunday, May 19, 9:52 AM There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. 53 Comments
Saturday, May 18, 9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. 4 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 17, 8:13 AM Thomas Lee lifts his year-end S&P 500 (SPY) forecast to 1,715 from 1,580 as the bull has already outrun his expectations. His team sees clues economic performance is picking up, including the outperformance of semiconductors (XSD) vs. transports (IYT), and the steepening of the 10 year/30 year Treasury curve. Risk/reward is particularly appealing in tech (XLK), healthcare (XLV), and financials (XLF). Comment!

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