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Seagate Technology

5/23/2013, 9:39 AM ET

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Thursday, May 23, 8:19 AM Deutsche Bank's Sherri Scribner (who likes the HDD space) upgrades Seagate Technology (STX) to Buy from Hold and raises the price target on it ($46 from $40) and shares of Western Digital (WDC). She says outperformance stemming from "the impact of the Thailand floods, which reset pricing and profitability higher" and industry consolidation will continue to benefit the two companies which Jim Chanos recently called value traps (STX is his favorite short). Meanwhile, SA contributor Sneha Shah also likes the industry consolidation thesis. (See also: Lazard's PT boost for WDC) STX +.85% premarket. Comment! [Tech]
Thursday, May 9, 10:00 AM Seagate (STX -3.6%) and Western Digital (WDC -1.8%) slump after Jim Chanos calls the hard drive makers value traps at the Sohn conference. Chanos, who was bearish on Dell before the bottom fell out of its PC business, calls the hard drive industry "PC with a year lag." "Most people have way too much storage as it is on their laptops and desktops," he adds. Seagate is Chanos' favorite short - he cites margin pressure, accounting issues (Chanos thinks $1B of goodwill from the Samsung deal could mask cash flow issues), and insider selling. 15 Comments [Tech, On the Move, Quick Ideas]
Saturday, May 4, 3:52 PM Barron's is out with its list of the 500 financially strongest companies as ranked after a rigorous cash and sales analysis. A quick filter on the list shows a good chunk of the names trade with a single-digit price to earnings ratio including Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT). Despite all the buzz about booming auto sales in the U.S. and China, concerns about growth for Goodyear's products in other regions of the globe have lowered expectations. But with auto sale estimates for full-year being taken higher, Goodyear could see enough consistent revenue growth to justify a higher trading multiple. (Top 25: AAPL, WCC, WDC, DVA, CHRW, QCOM, JOY, V, STX, MRC, MA, CVI, COF, SYMC, MCK, WCG, ETN, BRCM, TMO, CI, CBI, NOV, WNR, HFC, DK) 39 Comments [Consumer, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, May 1, 6:45 PM Seagate (STX) +4.8% AH after guiding on its FQ3 call for FQ4 revenue of $3.3B-$3.45B, in-line with a $3.35B consensus and easing PC-related concerns. Western Digital (WDC) +1.6%. In prepared remarks, Seagate estimates the hard drive industry saw 136M shipments in FQ3, nearly even with the 135.4M estimated by WDC. Seagate pegs its share at 41%, down from FQ2's 43%; WDC claims its share rose 80 bps Q/Q to 44.4%. High-margin enterprise drive sales rose 3% Q/Q to 7.5M (boosted by Web/cloud storage); PC drives -7% to 36.6M, "non-compute" drives down slightly to 11.6M. Gross margin was flat Q/Q at 27.6%. (slides) Comment! [Tech, Earnings, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 1, 4:10 PM Seagate (STX): FQ3 EPS of $1.26 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $3.53B (-21% Y/Y) beats by $150M. $102M in buybacks, $379M in debt paid down. Shares +0.9% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast), guidance should be provided. (PR) Comment! [Tech, Earnings, Breaking News]
Wednesday, April 24, 5:39 PM Western Digital (WDC) guides for FQ4 revenue of $3.55B-$3.65B and EPS of $1.65-$1.80, in-line with a consensus of $3.58B and $1.74. That, along with a strong FQ3 beat, is going over well in light of huge PC-related fears. WDC +3.7% AH. STX +1.3%. LSI +2.2%. WDC estimates the total market for hard drives in FQ3 was 135.4M, down just slightly from FQ2's 135.8M. The company pegs its FQ3 share at 44.4%, up from FQ2's 43.6%. Gross margin rose 50 bps Q/Q (while falling 400 bps Y/Y) to 28.2%, and $243M worth of shares were repurchased. (fact sheet) (PR) Comment! [Tech, Earnings, On the Move]
Tuesday, April 23, 10:20 AM Storage/hard drive stocks are outperforming, possibly aided by Veeco's Q1 bookings numbers: the company reported hard drive equipment bookings totaled $27M, down 7% Y/Y but up 60% Q/Q in spite of slumping PC demand. Veeco added on its CC (transcript) hard drive customers are "starting to make selective technology buy decisions" once more. STX +2.6%. WDC +2.6%. EMC +1.8%. NTAP +2.7%. XRTX +1.6%. QTM +5.1%. EMC reports tomorrow morning. Also, LED/solar equipment makers Aixtron (AIXG +9%) and GT Advanced (GTAT +2.7%) are getting a lift from Veeco's numbers and bullish Q2 commentary. 2 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Wednesday, April 17, 11:54 AM H-P (HPQ -2.1%), Seagate (STX -2.6%), and Western Digital (WDC -2.8%) underperform after UBS' Maynard Um argues Intel's (INTC -1.3%) Q1 report backs up his thesis that "PC pricing needs to come down ... to entice upgrades." Um thinks this will lead to margin pressure for OEMs, and an unfavorable mix shift for hard drive vendors. He also notes H-P/Dell might not benefit from Intel's server CPU strength, since it's fueled by cloud buyers who often rely on white-label gear. Also: Paul Otellini stated on Intel's Q1 call he expects Window 8 (MSFT) touch devices (7" tablets?) using Intel's upcoming Bay Trail Atom CPU to eventually sport ~$200 price points. 3 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Thursday, April 11, 8:24 AM In addition to the fall in Microsoft's shares, companies exposed to the PC market drop further after IDC said yesterday that global computer shipments slid 13.9% in Q1. H-P HPQ -5.2%, Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) -5.8% in Hong Kong, Intel (INTC) -2.3%, AMD -2.7%, Nvidia (NVDA) -2.1%, Seagate (STX) -1.85%, Western Digital (WDC) -1.3%. (previous) 6 Comments [Tech, On the Move, Consumer]
Wednesday, April 10, 4:43 PM Global PC shipments fell 13.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 76.9M units, per IDC. That surpasses Q4's 6.4% drop and Q3's 8.6% decline, and is steep even in light of IDC's recent commentary. IDC: "It seems clear that the Windows 8 (MSFT) launch not only didn’t provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market." H-P (HPQ) was the market's leader, but its share fell 200 bps Y/Y to 15.7%. #2 Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) saw its share rise 210 bps to 15.3%, and #3 Dell's rose 40 bps to 11.8%. Apple's (AAPL) U.S. share rose 60 bps to 10%, though U.S. Mac shipments fell 7.5% to 1.4M. 33 Comments [Tech]
Tuesday, April 9, 12:14 PM A (relatively) bullish MKM note on Intel (INTC +2.1%) appears to be giving a lift to the chip giant. The Street is already expecting Intel's PC CPU sales to fall 10% Y/Y in 1H13, thinks analyst Daniel Berenbaum, who believes plenty of bad news is baked in ahead of Intel's April 16 Q2 report. "Longer-term, we maintain our view that INTC will be able to monetize its technology and manufacturing advantage by gaining share in mobility, expanding its foundry business and continuing to dominate the data center space." Other PC-related names are also higher: MSFT +2.2%. WDC +1.4%. STX +1%. 6 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, April 3, 12:41 PM Seagate (STX -0.3%) launches what it claims is the first 4TB hard drive to use 1TB platters, an innovation that translates into lower costs (its price of $190 is below that of rival 4TB drives) and higher densities. The drive is aimed at desktops, but there's a good chance some Internet/cloud service providers, generally big fans of cheap/dense storage, will show an interest in the technology. Comment! [Tech]
Sunday, March 31, 11:33 AM What makes a good share buyback? Barron's cites four factors: i) Shares are in a downtrend. ii) It's a long-term strategy and not a short-term fix ( = >1% share count reduction/quarter). iii) Shares are cheap based on price-to-book. iv) The company has a rising dividend. The stocks that pass the test? Wellpoint (WLP), Seagate (STX), Western Union (WU) and AT&T (T). 31 Comments [Quick Ideas, Dividends]
Tuesday, March 26, 6:34 PM Western Digital (WDC) +0.7% AH after RBC's Amit Daryanani launches coverage with an Outperform and $55 PT. Just as the hard drive industry has largely consolidated around Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX), the number of suppliers for many drive components has also fallen sharply, something Daryanani thinks has lowered "margin volatility" for drive makers. He's also optimistic about enterprise storage demand, and thinks WDC can sustain $1B/year worth of buybacks. PC weakness is expected to "remain a constant drag" for the industry. (Brean Capital) Comment! [Tech]
Tuesday, March 26, 12:56 PM An upbeat note from Brean Capital's Ananda Baruah is leading Seagate (STX +3%) and Western Digital (WDC +2.9%) to rally. In spite of weak PC sales, Baruah expects industry hard drive shipments to total 130M-135M in calendar Q1, down just slightly from Q4's 136M and in-line with guidance. Moreover, he sees the potential for 5%-10% 2H shipment growth, and ASPs and margins are seen benefiting from a mixture of better capacity utilization, stronger retail revenue, rising hybrid drive shipments, and a mix shift to enterprise and 500GB single-platter notebook drives. LSI +1.4%. MRVL +0.8%. 4 Comments [Tech, On the Move, Quick Ideas]
Monday, March 18, 2:46 PM Like clockwork, IDC's PC shipment forecasts keep falling while its tablet forecasts keep rising. Following weak February Chinese sales, the research firm thinks global Q1 shipments could see a double-digit Y/Y drop, worse than a prior forecast for a 7.7% decline. It also thinks Q2 shipments could see a mid-single-digit drop ahead of a possible 2H recovery (made easier by favorable Y/Y comps). Two weeks ago, IDC forecast full-year shipments would drop 1.3%, which itself was worse than a prior outlook for a 2.8% increase. 13 Comments [Tech]

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