Jul. 18, 2014, 10:25 AM
Jul. 2, 2014, 9:49 AM
- Canaccord has launched coverage on SolarCity (SCTY +4.4%), SunEdison (SUNE +1.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +2.3%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +4.7%) with Buy ratings.
- SunPower (SPWR +0.6%) is up slightly in spite of being started at Hold.
- Canaccord's Josh Baribeau predicts the solar industry as a whole will benefit as "financial innovation such as risk pooling, securitization, de-levering etc. continue to drive the costs of capital and system costs downward."
- Baribeau expects SolarCity ($94 PT, leading the securitization trend) to beat Street deployment estimates, and to see strong cash flow growth with the help of declining component and financing costs.
- He likes Canadian's low manufacturing costs, industry-leading commercial backlog, and relatively low Chinese sales dependence. His target is $43, or 10x 2015E EPS.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
- Previous: Deutsche upbeat on solar YieldCo potential
Jun. 17, 2014, 12:55 PM
- SolarCity has announced plans to build a 1GW+ module plant in NY, and to follow it up with one or more much larger facilities. Notably, the company declares (in spite of a current capacity glut) it needs to build the plants to meet long-term solar demand.
- Yingli missed Q1 estimates, but reported a healthy gross margin (thanks in part to strong Japanese sales) and reiterated full-year guidance.
- Also: Goldman is out with a bullish note, predicting rooftop solar installations will post a 40% CAGR through 2016.
- Gainers: FSLR +2.8%. SPWR +4.2%. SUNE +4.4%. JASO +8.2%. SOL +7.5%. JKS +6.5%. CSIQ +7.4%. DQ +4.2%. ASTI +3.9%. HSOL +6.9%. TSL +5.6%. ENPH +3.5%. CSUN +3.7%. RGSE +11.3% (announced a new Hawaiian deal).
- SolarCity's plans are a positive for equipment vendors GT Advanced (GTAT +1.5%) and Veeco (VECO +1.6%), each of which has seen its solar orders plummet thanks to the capacity glut.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
- Yesterday: Solar stocks rally; Deutsche upbeat on YieldCo potential
Jun. 16, 2014, 1:15 PM
- Deutsche, Macquarie, and Wells Fargo have launched coverage of SunEdison Semi (SEMI -2.9%) with bullish ratings, and Citi and Goldman have launched with neutral ratings.
- Deutsche's Vishal Shah, who today upgraded parent SunEdison (SUNE +10.2%) to Buy, sees SEMI's cost advantage leading to chip wafer share gains, and notes the company is a leader in the high-ASP specialty wafer space. He also thinks a new wafer supply deal with top customer Samsung could boost SEMI's share.
- Shares still +29% from last month's $13 IPO price.
Jun. 16, 2014, 11:05 AM
- "We are becoming increasingly constructive on the solar sector as we expect further tightening of the solar supply/demand balance and expect increased investor interest driving valuation multiple expansion," says Deutsche, which last month struck a far more cautious tone on the industry.
- The firm adds it expects "the emergence of 5-6 publicly traded [solar project] YieldCos over the next 12-18 months to act as a robust growth enabler." It has upgraded SunEdison (SUNE +6.4%), which recently filed an S-1 for its TerraForm Power (TERP) YieldCo, to Buy.
- YieldCo momentum is seen growing ahead of potential 2016 U.S. solar tax credit changes, and greater international activity is expected to start in 2015, as grid parity is reached in more markets.
- Notable gainers: FSLR +3%. SPWR +4.7%. CSUN +5.2%. SOL +4.8%. RGSE +3.4%. HSOL +3.4%. YGE +3.3%. CSIQ +3.1%.
- SunPower might also be getting a lift from news of a $200M, 2-year loan program with Admirals Bank to finance U.S. residential solar projects. SunPower has already reached residential financing deals with Google and BofA/Merrill this year.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Jun. 4, 2014, 9:30 AM
- The Department of Commerce has imposed new preliminary tariffs on Chinese solar module imports, covering both modules featuring Chinese and non-Chinese cells. Trina (NYSE:TSL) is seeing an 18.56% tariff, bankrupt Suntech (NYSE:STP) a 35.21% tariff, and most other firms a 26.89% tariff.
- The move follows a complaint from Germany's SolarWorld that Chinese firms are using a loophole involving imported cells to sidestep the DOCs 2012 tariffs. A separate anti-dumping decision is due on July 25.
- Morgan Stanley notes many were expecting either a lower tariff (perhaps around 15%) or a settlement similar to the EU/China deal. Not surprisingly, the Chinese government says it's "strongly dissatisfied" with the DOC's action, and warns it could hurt trade ties.
- Chinese solar exporters are off: TSL -6.2%. YGE -5.8%. CSIQ -5.1%. JKS -8.8%. JASO -4.4%. CSUN -3.3%.
- U.S. peers First Solar (FSLR +2.5%) and SunPower (SPWR +5.5%) are higher. But SolarCity (SCTY -2.8%) and SunEdison (SUNE -3.5%) are off, as investors fear higher panel costs for solar projects. Also: SunEdison has announced a new $500M convertible debt offering. $350M-$400M of the proceeds will go to its TerraForm Power (Pending:TERP) spinoff.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
May 29, 2014, 11:20 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE) has christened its solar project spinoff (formerly just known as YieldCo) TerraForm Power, and has filed an S-1. Goldman, Barclays, and Citi will act as the IPO underwriters.
- TerraForm will trade under the symbol TERP, and will initially own projects (in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Chile) with a nameplate capacity of 523.8MW. All of the projects have long-term power purchasing agreements attached; the average remaining lifespan is 18 years.
- Between the IPO and the end of 2016, SunEdison will have to offer TerraForm solar projects expected to generate at least $175M in cash available for distribution within the first 12 months of their commercial operations dates.
- SunEdison hasn't yet disclosed how large its stake will be post-IPO; it previously said it's looking to sell a 20%-30% stake, and raise up to $300M for new projects. The company added the spinoff is expected to pay a dividend.
- The company's chip wafer unit turned in a moderately successful IPO last week.
- Previous: YieldCo obtains $250M in financing from Goldman
May 22, 2014, 11:39 AM
- After pricing its 7.2M-share IPO at $13 (the low end of a $13-$15 range), SunEdison Semi (SEMI) opened at $15 and is currently at $14.66, up 12.8%.
- The chip wafer manufacturer has a valuation of $592M, or a modest 0.6x 2013 sales. The low multiple is a by-product of the company's ongoing top-line struggles - sales fell 11% Y/Y in Q1 to $206.1M.
- SunEdison (SUNE +3%), which is spinning off the business, stands to have a 58.4% post-IPO stake; investors are breathing a sigh of relief over the debut. Leading customer Samsung, which is buying shares through a private placement, will have a 23.7% stake.
- Prospectus, IPO preview, analysis
May 21, 2014, 11:36 AM
- Though Trina's Q1 module shipments were only in-line with the company's revised guidance, it's expecting Q2 shipments will rise 70%-81% Q/Q.
- Volatile solar stocks are responding well (TAN +3.8%) to Trina's outlook, which follows a more subdued Q2 growth forecast from Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.6%) last Friday, and comes amid general concerns about Chinese growth.
- Notable gainers (besides Trina): CSUN +14.1%. SOL +8.7%. JKS +6.6%. YGE +5.9%. DQ +5.7%. JASO +4.9%. ASTI +6.8%. ENPH +3.9%. SUNE +2.7%.
- NPD Solarbuzz recently noted the world's top-20 module suppliers are collectively forecasting 30%+ 2014 shipment growth. The firm added the outlooks imply 2014 end-market demand will be near 50GW.
May 8, 2014, 9:18 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE) recognized revenue on 76MW of solar system sales, below guidance of 85MW-105MW. But it also retained 74MW on its balance sheet, above guidance of 50MW-60MW. The company expects to recognize revenue on 60MW-80MW of systems in Q2, and to retain 100MW-120MW on its balance sheet.
- For the whole of 2014, SunEdison still expects to complete 900MW-1150MW of systems (+90% at the midpoint). But it now expects to recognize revenue on 640MW-580MW (down from 500MW-650MW), and to retain 440MW-570MW on its balance sheet (up from 400MW-500MW).
- In spite of Q1 pricing weakness, 2014 average project pricing is now expected to be in a range of $2.40-$2.75 vs. a prior $2.25-$2.75.
- Solar energy revenue rose 87% Y/Y in Q1 to $371.5M. The chip wafer division (still set for an IPO) remains weak, with sales falling 11% Y/Y to $206.1M. SunEdison's gross margin fell to 3.8% from 4.9% in Q4 and 9.7% a year ago.
- The company's solar project pipeline rose by 173MW Q/Q to 3.6GW. Backlog fell by 73MW to 1GW. 463MW of the pipeline is under construction, down from 503MW at the end of Q4.
- Q1 results, PR
May 8, 2014, 9:16 AM
May 7, 2014, 11:45 AM
- A Q1 beat and full-year guidance hike aren't enough to keep First Solar (FSLR -4.2%) from selling off. Possibly contributing: In spite of the guidance hike, First Solar stated on its CC (transcript) Q2 EPS "will be significantly lower" than a $0.60 consensus due to project timings; that implies 2014 results will be very back-end loaded.
- Also: First Solar disclosed in its earnings slides (.pdf) its expected future systems/3rd-party module revenue is down $400M from the end of 2013 to $7.1B. However, expected module shipments are up by 100MW to 2.8GW, and potential booking opportunities have risen by 1.6GW to 12.2GW.
- Module production totaled 441MW, -1% Q/Q and +19% Y/Y. Conversion efficiency rose 10 bps Q/Q and 60 bps Y/Y to 13.5%, with lead-line efficiency rising 30 bps Q/Q and 120 bps Y/Y to 14.2%. The company is aiming for 18.1%-18.9% lead-line efficiency by 2017.
- Other solar stocks are also off (TAN -2.8%), as investors continue showing a take-no-prisoners attitude towards momentum stocks in general. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +0.3%) has given back the premarket gains it saw following a Q1 guidance hike.
- Notable decliners: SCTY -8.8%. SUNE -7%. TSL -5.5%. CSUN -5.1%. YGE -4.8%. SPWR -4.2%. DQ -5.7%.
Apr. 29, 2014, 3:30 PM
- Deutsche is providing SunEdison (SUNE +2.5%) with financing to build a 60MW solar plant in Kern County, CA.
- The plant, which will use 250K SunEdison solar modules, is expected to be operational by year's end. SunEdison will provide various services for it afterwards.
- Six days ago, SunEdison announced Deutsche is providing it with $103.5M in financing for two Canadian plants.
Apr. 28, 2014, 2:15 PM
- The latest rout in once-high-flying tech momentum plays isn't leaving solar stocks unscathed. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -6.2%) is now down 21% from its March 7 high of $51.07.
- Likely adding fuel to the fire: Credit Suisse has slashed its 2014 Chinese solar installation forecast by 500MW to 11.5GW, soundly below the government's 14GW target (set in February). CS thinks policy changes related to utility-scale projects, feed-in tariff reimbursement, and distributed solar incentives are needed for investment to pick up.
- The firm adds JinkoSolar (JKS -10.8%), Trina (TSL -12.2%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -12.8%) are well-positioned to profit from downstream projects, given they have access to financing from the China Development Bank and other sources. On the other hand, it thinks Yingli (YGE -4.1%) and ReneSola (SOL -8.8%) are "less likely to access project capital due to their strained balance sheets." Yingli recently priced a stock offering expected to yield $83M in net proceeds.
- Other decliners: FSLR -5.3%. SCTY -7.1%. SUNE -6.8%. CSUN -9.8%. JASO -9.4%. DQ -9.3%. HSOL -5.9%. SPWR -5.1%.
Apr. 22, 2014, 3:56 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest winners (TAN +5.2%) on a good day for momentum stocks.
- SunEdison (SUNE +11.6%) is leading the pack after David Einhorn disclosed he has added to the position he started in Q4, and predicted lower solar costs and rising electricity prices should make the company a "winner." Einhorn is less crazy about tech momentum plays in general.
- Meanwhile, Canadian Solar is benefiting from a Japanese module deal, and SunPower (SPWR +6.5%) and SolarCity (SCTY +6.4%) are getting a lift from a Goldman note calling the companies its two best solar ideas. SunPower reports on Thursday.
- Other notable gainers: YGE +7.9%. DQ +9.2%. JKS +7.4%. SOL +6.8%. HSOL +6.7%. ENPH +6.2%. JASO +4.5%.
Apr. 11, 2014, 3:20 PM
- Solar stocks are broadly lower following Yingli Green Energy's (YGE -5.1%) warning of greater than projected declines in PV module shipments in Q1.
- The first solar company to make a Q1 pre-announcement, YGE estimated Q1 shipments fell by the low 30s in percentage points from Q4, below prior company guidance of a mid-20s decrease, due to softness in China and project delays in Algeria.
- YGE reiterated its FY 2014 shipment guidance of 4.0-4.2 GW, and sees higher prices lifting Q1 margins more than expected.
- Although some of YGE's weaknesses may have been company-specific, the warning has cast a shadow over solar stocks today: SUNE -2.4%, FSLR -2.9%, TSL -2.6%, SCTY -1.7%, SPWR -5.2%, JKS -7.6%.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
SUNE vs. ETF Alternatives
SunEdison Inc is adeveloper and seller of photovoltaic energy solutions, an owner and operator of clean power generation assets. The Company is also engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of silicon wafers to the semiconductor industry.
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