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AT&T Inc.

5/22/2013, 8:31 AM ET

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| Dividends
| M&A
| On the move

Tuesday, May 21, 5:40 AM Goldman Sachs lifts its forecasts for the S&P 500 (SPY), as David Kostin and company now say they expect the index to gain 5% by year-end to 1,750, 9% to 1,900 in 2014, and 10% to 2,100 in 2015. The rationale: expectations of above-trend real GDP growth beginning next year (Mr. Evans' "escape velocity" ?) coupled with P/E multiple expansion to 16x. Furthermore, dividends should rise ~30% over the next two years, bolstering the firm's claim that dividend-paying equities (DVY) are one of the only places U.S. investors can look to for income-generation. Some of GS's dividend picks, as listed on MarketWatch: Mattel (MAT), Ford (F), Philip Morris (PM), Walgreen (WAG), Chevron (CVX), U.S. Bancorp (USB), GE, Western Union (WU), Dow Chemical (DOW), and AT&T (T). 10 Comments
Saturday, May 18, 6:23 PM 32% of Q1 U.S. smartphone sales involved prepaid phones, up from 21% a year ago, says NPD. That trend could spell trouble for AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD), whose recent growth has been heavily tied to selling costly postpaid data plans. With 72% and 61% of the carriers' postpaid bases now respectively on smartphones, they face pressure to gain prepaid buyers without cannibalizing postpaid subs. Cannibalization fears have led AT&T and Verizon to make their prepaid plans 3G-only; Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS) offer 4G. A mix shift towards unsubsidized prepaid phones could also be a challenge for Apple (AAPL), estimated to have just 8% of the Q1 U.S. prepaid smartphone market (though that's up 4x Y/Y). 16 Comments [Tech]
Friday, May 17, 9:10 AM Leap Wireless (LEAP) -2.5% after Barclays starts coverage with an Underweight and $4 PT as part of a broader coverage launch of U.S. telecom service providers. Tower owners SBA (SBAC) and American Tower (AMT) have been started at Overweight, and so has Verizon (VZ). AT&T (T) and T-Mobile USA (TMUS) have been started at Equal Weight. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 15, 10:49 AM AT&T's (T +0.5%) mobile ops will rebound in 2H, CEO Randall Stephenson promises at a JPMorgan conference. The remarks follow a Q1 in which AT&T only added 296K postpaid subs (it lost 69K if one excludes tablet adds), and shed 184K prepaid subs - the carrier is counting on its new Aio prepaid plans to improve the latter. Stephenson adds AT&T is looking to expand in Europe (previous), but when asked whether he sees European M&A opportunities, he replied, "I don't know. It's a difficult place for that sort of thing." 1 Comment [Tech]
Friday, May 10, 11:49 AM AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD) might finally realize their dream of charging consumers and content providers for mobile data traffic: a WSJ report states ESPN has held talks with "at least one major carrier" about subsidizing access to its content, perhaps by guaranteeing it doesn't count towards monthly caps. If such deals ever became widespread, media providers such as YouTube, Netflix, and Pandora would probably be the biggest payers. But ESPN isn't yet sure of the economics, and (though net neutrality rules only apply to wireline) there could be a regulatory backlash. 5 Comments [Tech]
Thursday, May 9, 11:04 AM Yield-chasing investors should be wary of AT&T (T -1.5%, 4.8% yield) and Digital Realty (DLR -5.4%, 4.6% yield), warns Jonathan Jacobson at the Sohn conference. AT&T's wireline ops are a "melting ice cube," Jacobson declares (revenue fell 1.8% Y/Y in Q1), and mobile competition is intensifying. As for DLR, he asserts "the data center [colocation] business is a commodity business" (ed: true, but it has been growing quickly), and accuses DLR of understating recurring capex. He also considers its dividend unsustainable without fresh capital-raising efforts. In addition to Jacobson's remarks, DLR appears pressured by Rackspace's Q1 miss. 9 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, May 3, 2:05 PM AT&T (T -0.5%) is set to launch new prepaid plans on June 15 under a brand called All in One, Fierce Wireless reports. The services will reportedly include a $35/month feature phone plan and a $50/month smartphone plan, with each supporting unlimited voice and text to go with a data bucket. The report comes a week after AT&T reported a Q1 net loss of 184K prepaid subs, a number that contrasts unfavorably with Verizon's (VZ) 43K net gain. Verizon recently launched a $35/month prepaid plan for feature phones, and $60-$70/month prepaid plans for smartphones. 5 Comments [Tech]
Tuesday, April 30, 5:31 PM Pres. Obama is expected to nominate Tom Wheeler, a former CEO for both the cable and mobile phone industry's top trade groups (the NCTA and CTIA), to be the next head of the FCC, the WSJ reports. Given Wheeler's background and the fact he supported the AT&T/T-Mobile merger (shot down in part by the outgoing Julius Genachowski), albeit on grounds it would give the FCC a chance to impose new regulations, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) might be happier with this report than Sprint (S) and MetroPCS (PCS). If Wheeler gets the job, he'll arrive ahead of a major spectrum auction whose rules are still being hotly debated. 2 Comments [Tech]
Tuesday, April 30, 12:05 AM Notable earnings before Tuesday’s open: ABFS, AET, AGCO, AMED, ARCO, AVP, BEN, BP, CIE, CMI, CNH, COCO, CRIS, CYNO, DBD, DDD, DPZ, ECL, EPD, ESV, EXAS, FCH, FIS, FLWS, GAS, GOV, HCLP, HCP, HEP, HNR, HOT, HRS, HUN, HW, IVZ, KLIC, LM, MCGC, MHP, MLM, MNTA, MPC, MPLX, MSO, MTG, MTOR, MWV, NEE, NI, NYX, ODP, OSK, PBI, PEG, PES, PFE, ROC, SAVE, SIRI, TFX, THC, TRI, TRW, UBS, UDR, VLO, VSH, WEC, X, XYL, ZTS Comment! [Earnings]
Monday, April 29, 5:30 PM Notable earnings before Tuesday’s open: ABFS, AET, AGCO, AMED, ARCO, AVP, BEN, BP, CIE, CMI, CNH, COCO, CRIS, CYNO, DBD, DDD, DPZ, ECL, EPD, ESV, EXAS, FCH, FIS, FLWS, GAS, GOV, HCLP, HCP, HEP, HNR, HOT, HRS, HUN, HW, IVZ, KLIC, LM, MCGC, MHP, MLM, MNTA, MPC, MPLX, MSO, MTG, MTOR, MWV, NEE, NI, NYX, ODP, OSK, PBI, PEG, PES, PFE, ROC, SAVE, SIRI, TFX, THC, TRI, TRW, UBS, UDR, VLO, VSH, WEC, X, XYL, ZTS 1 Comment [Earnings]
Friday, April 26, 3:42 PM Looking for dividend picks, Marketwatch screens the S&P 1,500 for 1) Stock trades at less than a 17x PE 2) Dividend yield 20% or more higher than S&P 500 3) Raised dividend at least 5 times in last 5 years 4) S&P Quality Rank of B+ or better. The winners: T, AVA, BAX, CAH, CAG, ED, JNJ, LG, TAP, RAI, SCG, UVV, WR, XEL. 1 Comment
Wednesday, April 24, 10:44 AM AT&T (T -5.4%) gets slammed as 3 downgrades arrive in response to its Q1 revenue miss, the result of soft wireless subscriber adds and declining wireline revenue. There might also be concerns about whether lowering 2014/2015 capex targets (to fuel more buybacks?) is a bright idea in light of flagging growth. AT&T's 296K Q1 postpaid net adds (boosted by tablets) and 184K prepaid net losses are easily worse than Verizon's respective net adds of 677K and 43K. On the earnings call, AT&T mostly blamed wireline weakness on macro and government issues, rather than legacy voice service declines. VZ -1.9%. CTL -4%. WIN -2.2%. FTR -1.1%. 8 Comments [Tech, Earnings, On the Move]
Tuesday, April 23, 5:11 PM More on AT&T: 2014 and 2015 capex guidance lowered by $2B for each year to $20B. 296K wireless postpaid net adds, but only due to 365K tablet adds; 184K prepaid net losses. 232K U-verse net adds, total base at 8.7M. 124K wireline broadband net adds. EPS boosted by $5.9B in buybacks; pace expected to slow. Wireless sales +3.4% Y/Y; data services +21%, other services -3.8%, equipment +3.8%. 10M postpaid subs on shared data plans; 72% of postpaid subs use smartphones. Postpaid ARPU rose 0.9% Y/Y. Postpaid churn of 1.04, down from 1.19% in Q4 and 1.10% in Q1 '12. Wireline revenue -1.8%; data +4.6%, voice -9.9%. T -2.6% AH. (PR) (slides) Comment! [Tech, Earnings]
Tuesday, April 23, 4:04 PM AT&T (T): Q1 EPS of $0.64 in-line. Revenue of $31.40B (-1% Y/Y) misses by $340M. Shares -1.5% AH. CC at 4:30PM ET (webcast). (PR) Comment! [Tech, Earnings, Breaking News]
Tuesday, April 23, 12:10 AM Notable earnings after Tuesday’s close: AAPL, ACC, AMGN, AWAY, BCR, BRCM, CREE, DV, EW, FBC, FTI, HA, HBI, HLIT, HTS, IRBT, ITC, JNPR, LIFE, NBR, NFX, NSC, OI, OII, OMI, PACB, PLCM, PNRA, RFMD, RHI, T, UIS, USNA, VMW, WRB, YUM, ZIXI Comment! [Earnings]
Monday, April 22, 5:35 PM Notable earnings after Tuesday’s close: AAPL, ACC, AMGN, AWAY, BCR, BRCM, CREE, DV, EW, FBC, FTI, HA, HBI, HLIT, HTS, IRBT, ITC, JNPR, LIFE, NBR, NFX, NSC, OI, OII, OMI, PACB, PLCM, PNRA, RFMD, RHI, T, UIS, USNA, VMW, WRB, YUM, ZIXI Comment! [Earnings]

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