- I have been critical of TAL's disclosures and hope they will provide clarity at their analyst day.
- TAL has consistently missed estimates for the last year which implies management might be under-estimating the company's problems.
- The container market is very weak, as evidenced by falling average lease rates at TAL and its peers.
- I expect TAL to cut its dividend by the end of this year.
- Reiterate $18/share price target (replacement value).