The RBS Gold TrendpilotTM ETNs are designed for investors who seek exposure to the RBS Gold TrendpilotTM Index (USD) (the “Index”). The Index utilizes a systematic trend-following strategy to provide exposure to either the Price of Gold Bullion (as defined below) or the yield on a hypothetical notional investment in 3-month U.S. Treasury bills (the “Cash Rate”), depending on the relative performance of the Price of Gold Bullion on a simple historical moving average basis. If the Price of Gold Bullion is at or above its historical 200-Index business day simple moving average for five consecutive Index business days (i.e., a “positive trend” is established), the Index will track the return on the Price of Gold Bullion, and will have no exposure to the Cash Rate until a negative trend occurs. Conversely, if the Price of Gold Bullion is below such average for five consecutive index business days (i.e., a “negative trend” is established), then the Index will track the Cash Rate instead of the return on the Price of Gold Bullion and will have no exposure to the Price of Gold Bullion until the next positive trend.
The “Price of Gold Bullion” on any given day means the spot price of physical gold, as measured by the afternoon gold fixing price (also known as the London Gold P.M. Fixing Price) per troy ounce of gold for delivery in London through a member of the London Bullion Market Association (“LBMA”) authorized to effect such delivery, stated in U.S. dollars, as calculated by the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd. and published by the LBMA, on such day. The Price of Gold Bullion is also published on Bloomberg page “GOLDLNPM Index."
For the purposes of the Product Facts below, the Price of Gold Bullion is also referred to as the "Benchmark Index".
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Tue, Jul. 1, 2:51 PM
- Gold may on the move higher this year, but investors keep pulling money out of gold ETFs, with $562M of outflows YTD (through June 27), according to Bloomberg, including $1.34B exiting in Q2. "Many have failed to notice the fact that gold has shown a strong performance this year, and it seems that the 2013 slump is still fresh in people’s minds," says Pension Partners' Michael Gayed.
- Yesterday, however, the amount of gold in ETFs increased by 229K ounces, mostly due to GLD inflows. It's the biggest one-day increase since May and largely offset all of June's outflows.
- The outflows in 2014 don't compare to the stampede in 2013, says UBS, and it suggests the bulk of the selling is now in the rearview mirror.
- Gold today is ahead 0.5% to $1,328 per ounce - a three-month high.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, OUNZ, TBAR, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GLDL, GLDS, GEUR, GGBP
Thu, Jun. 19, 3:10 PM
- A nice-sized rally has turned into a melt-up for the precious metals and the companies that pull them out of the ground. Gold is up 3.9% to $1,319, its highest level in two months, and silver is ahead 5.7% to $20.90. GLD +3.6%, SLV +5.4%
- The gold miners (GDX +4.7%), and the silver miners (SIL +6.1%).
- A dovish interpretation of the FOMC news from yesterday makes for a nice excuse, as does the President's move to send 300 military advisers to Iraq to try and head off an all-out civil war there.
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Gold and silver miner ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GDXJ, DUST, GLDX, JNUG, JDST, RING, GGGG, PSAU, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Thu, Jun. 19, 11:05 AM
- Now up about $30 per ounce since the FOMC announcement, updated Fed economic projections, and Yellen press conference yesterday, gold is just cents away from $1,300.
- Peter Boockvar notes the Fed may be ignoring recent warming inflation data (when pressed on the fast numbers, Yellen called them "noisy"), but gold may not be. In any case - with just 3 FOMC meetings to go until QE is over and rate hike discussions start in earnest - markets will have to keep a close watch on inflation figures in addition to labor market indicators.
- GLD +1.8%, SLV +2.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Earlier coverage of FOMC/Yellen
Tue, Jun. 17, 10:25 AM
- A week of surging prices for oil and gold are reversing, as worries about instability in Iraq that have dominated the market in recent days recede a bit.
- At last check, July WTI crude was down 0.4% to $106.44/bbl on the New York Merc, and the global Brent contract was down 0.2% to $112.69 after briefly topping $114/bbl last week, as the market has "run out of buying momentum" with no interruption in the flow of oil from Iraq or any sign that the fighting is spreading to the southern oil region.
- August gold is down 0.6% to $1,267.90/oz.; with market participants apparently not rating the geopolitical risks quite as highly as before, gold is in less demand as a safe haven, and Commerzbank notes yesterday's outflows in gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg totaled 3.8 tons, their highest daily outflow in nearly two weeks.
- ETFs: USO, AGQ, OIL, USLV, UCO, ZSL, UGL, SCO, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, DTO, BNO, DBO, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, CRUD, DGZ, DGLD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, TBAR, DNO, USV, UBG, SZO, GYEN, GLDE, OLO, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP, OLEM, TWTI
Mon, Jun. 9, 1:29 PM
- Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
- Gold today is ahead $2 per ounce to $1,254.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GEUR, GLDL, GLDS, GGBP
Thu, Jun. 5, 8:45 AM
- Getting no assistance from the ECB's move to go to negative deposit rates and Draghi's suggestion of some sort of version of QE, gold remains flat on the session at $1,245 per ounce.
- Previously: ECB goes negative
- Previously: Negative rates not the end of moves for the ECB
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Wed, Jun. 4, 6:55 AM
- Stock index futures are marginally lower ahead of a sizable slate of economic data, including the ADP jobs report at 8:15 ET, ISM-services at 10, and the Fed Beige Book at 2.
- Europe's Stoxx 50 is off 0.3% and Asia was moderately lower overnight.
- The 10-year Treasury yield jumped all the way to 2.60% yesterday, but has retreated one basis point this morning to 2.59%, and gold is flat at $1,245 per ounce.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Tue, Jun. 3, 11:03 AM
- Ignored as gold investors focus on the negative of late, says the team at Ned Davis, are real interest rates ... they've stopped going higher. Of any number of indicators, real interest rates historically have had the strongest correlation to gold prices.
- As for weakening Chinese demand, purchases are still massive and the same trend of slowing occurred in early 2013. Other pluses: Reforms in India which could boost demand there and an ECB about to maybe go negative with rates or launch QE (policy meeting is tomorrow).
- Bullish, but respectful of the price action, the team isn't recommending getting too long yet. "If you are looking for a short-term entry point, this does not appear to be it. Gold’s price action is poor, and sentiment is not pessimistic enough to take a contrary bet at $1246 per ounce."
Fri, May. 30, 12:04 PM
- Gold continues its worst week in months, with a morning tumble bringing the metal lower by $15 per ounce to $1,242, a level not seen since January. For the week, gold is down about $50 per ounce, or 4%.
- To review, gold began the year at about $1,200 per ounce and surged to nearly $1,400 in mid-March. Last year's low set in June and again in December was just below $1,200.
- Pick your excuse: Lower Chinese demand, lessening tensions in Ukraine, calm in financial markets ...
- GLD -1%
Wed, May. 28, 2:30 PM
- Gold fails to bounce from its 2% retreat yesterday, dipping another 0.5% to $1,259 per ounce, its lowest price since early February.
- "Ukraine has fallen to a whisper," says one trader looking at the fundamentals, and "Gold frequently sees weakness and bottoms on options expiration," says another focusing on the technicals.
- Commerzbank believes investors are still getting over the surprise slowing in Chinese demand reported yesterday. "Chinese banks are now clearly sitting on considerable gold stocks which they are keen to reduce before they import any new gold from Hong Kong."
- GLD -0.5%
Tue, May. 27, 3:33 PM
- June gold fell to its lowest level in 15 weeks, settling 2% lower $1,265.50/oz., as "everywhere the investor looks, he sees nothing but a negative for gold today." Silver slipped 1.8% to end at $19.07/oz.
- Gold's drop despite increased violence in eastern Ukraine "is a telling sign that more weakness may be on the horizon," says Forex.com's Matt Weller; a shift in tone by Russia, which indicated its willingness to work with the new Ukrainian government and made strides toward a natural gas deal between the two countries, removed another support from the gold market.
- Also a factor is a round of stronger U.S. economic data showing a surprise increase in durable goods orders, improved housing data and rising consumer confidence, which is providing a lift to stocks; the expiration of June gold options also is adding to market volatility.
- Precious metals miners are among the day's weakest stock performers: ABX -3.4%, GG -3.8%, NEM -3.1%, SLW -3.4%, KGC -3.8%, AUY -4.1%, AU -6.5%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Fri, May. 23, 8:02 AM
- Needing a "mini puke to $1,558 for fixing," Barclays trader (now ex-trader) Daniel Plunkett got it, nailing a bank client for $3.9M on a derivatives contract. Thus started the investigation into the bank's manipulation of the gold fix for which it was fined $44M today. The former trader also was handed down a fine and a banning from the industry.
- Plunkett's actions that in 2012 came only one day after Barclays was fined a £290M over Libor manipulation which eventually led to the exit of CEO Bob Diamond.
- Today's action brings further questions over the future of the decades-old gold fix. Deutsche has already resigned from the small group of lenders involved in the process. "If [the gold-fixing banks] want to continue to operate the fix in any way like they're doing they will need to be a lot more transparent about what's going on," says finance professor Brian Lucey.
- Previously: Barclays escapes with small fine for gold manipulation
Tue, May. 20, 10:40 AM
- China purchased 18% less gold in Q1 than it did one year ago, according to the World Gold Council, including a 55% slump in gold bar and coin purchases. The world's 2nd biggest buyer, India purchased 26% less than a year ago.
- The selling wasn't just limited to emerging markets - physical demand for gold fell 52% Y/Y to a four-year low, according to the WGC. The flip-side: Investor selling (ETFs) essentially came to a halt. It's the opposite of last year where physical buyers stepped in to pick up the metal as investors unloaded.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDL, GLDS, GGBP
Thu, May. 15, 8:16 AM
- The Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) - set to launch on Friday - is billing itself as a "deliverable gold ETF" in that it will allow individual investors to take delivery of the metal itself in exchange for shares. Bricks, coins, or bars are all options.
- The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) also allows for gold delivery, but a minimum basket of 100K shares is necessary. The Merk Gold Trust minimum share exchange will be about one hundred shares for one ounce of gold.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Wed, May. 7, 3:11 PM
- Generally upbeat economic comments from Janet Yellen make for a convenient excuse for sizable declines in precious metals today, but then how do we explain lower yields at both ends of the interest rate curve? At 2.62% before Yellen sat down in front of Congress, the 10-year Treasury yield is now down to 2.59%, and the December 2015 Eurodollar contract - as good a proxy for worry over rate hikes as exists - has gained five basis points (higher price means lower chance of hike).
- Maybe more at work could be chatter about a de-escalation of tensions over Ukraine.
- In other news, the China Gold Association reports the country's total Q1 gold consumption at 322.99 metric tons, up 0.8% from a year ago. Consumption of gold bars, however, fell about 44% to 67.954 tons.
- GLD -1.4%, SLV -1.3%
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, GLDI, SLVO, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GEUR, GLDS, GLDL, GGBP
Fri, May. 2, 3:08 PM
- Gold's struggled for the last couple of months, but is still well ahead of equities for the year. The move, however, has yet to attract money into gold ETFs - one of the favored vehicles for trend-chasing goldbugs. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has shed more than $450M in assets YTD, and competitor iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has brought in a tiny $79M.
- "There hasn’t been much interest or optimism in actually owning gold ETFs," says Ned Davis' Neil Leeson.
- In more immediate news, gold (along with Treasurys) has staged an impressive reversal today, piercing through $1,300 per ounce after dipping to $1,275 in the moments following the strong jobs number this morning. GLD and IAU each up 1.1%
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, TBAR, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GEUR, GLDS, GGBP, GLDL
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