Is TBF a buy? - Seeking Alpha

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HEADLINES:

No Bubble Yet -- But The Compressor Needs To Be Shut Off
Kyle Rudduck • Wed, May 22 • 3 Comments
Bond Bubble: Risk Premium Factor Model Suggests Fair Value Yield On 10-Year Treasury Is 4.4%
Steve Hassett • Mon, May 20 • 9 Comments
The Safest Way To Play Rising Interest Rates
Nick Patterson • Mon, May 13 • 9 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - May 2013
Ploutos • Mon, May 6 • 5 Comments
What's Ahead For U.S. Interest Rates?
Malay Bansal • Sun, Apr 28 • 53 Comments
3 Tenets Of Sound Risk Management Revisited
Michael Fabian • Tue, Apr 23 • 3 Comments
3 Ways To Play Rising Interest Rates
Michael Fabian • Thu, Apr 18 • 12 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year At Its 2013 Low
Doug Short • Fri, Apr 5 • 3 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - April 2013
Ploutos • Tue, Apr 2 • 8 Comments
Strategies For A Rising Rate Environment: Inverse Bond Funds
Robert Wagner • Wed, Mar 27 • 14 Comments
Decrease Your Investment Risk Using Natural Hedging
Martin Vlcek • Thu, Mar 21 • 19 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - March 2013
Ploutos • Fri, Mar 1 • 10 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year Still Hovering Near 2%
Doug Short • Sun, Feb 24 • 2 Comments
Some ETFs For Rising Interest Rates
Tom Lydon • Tue, Feb 19 • 1 Comment
Gold Is Behaving Like A Leveraged Long Bond
Robert Wagner • Wed, Feb 13 • 11 Comments
The Debt Is Irrelevant (For Now) And What That Means To Interest Rates
Squeeky Wheel • Mon, Feb 11 • 25 Comments
Sick Of High Gas Prices? Hedging Strategies For Your Everyday Costs
Robert Wagner • Mon, Feb 11 • 7 Comments
The Bond Vigilantes Have Been Taken Out Back And Shot
Paulo Santos • Tue, Feb 5 • 42 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum Strategies - February 2013
Ploutos • Fri, Feb 1 • 6 Comments
Is It Finally Time To Short U.S. Treasury Bonds?
Maxsoar • Thu, Jan 10 • 16 Comments

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Using Options To Generate A 17% Yield On The TBF
Sean Bellamy McNulty • Tue, Jan 10, 2012 • 7 Comments
Shorting Treasuries With The TBF: A Historic Opportunity
Sean Bellamy McNulty • Fri, Jan 6, 2012 • 20 Comments
Just One ETF: Shorting Treasurys as a Change Management Model Flashes Bearish Bond Signals
Nigam Arora • Tue, Jun 7, 2011 • 29 Comments
Why U.S. Treasuries Won't Die
Joe Eqcome • Fri, May 20, 2011 • 20 Comments
Inflation Continues to Build
Joe Eqcome • Sun, Apr 24, 2011 • 2 Comments
Job Growth: Is That All the Market Cares About?
Joe Eqcome • Fri, Apr 8, 2011 • 14 Comments
TBF: Profiting From Inflation
Sean Bellamy McNulty • Wed, Feb 23, 2011 • 6 Comments
Profit From the Fed by Shorting the 20-Year Treasury
Joe Eqcome • Sun, Oct 31, 2010 • 12 Comments
The Long-Term Bond-Yield Channel
Doug Short • Mon, Sep 6, 2010
Shorting the Long Treasury Is This Fund Manager's Highest Conviction Idea
David McMillan • Tue, Jan 26, 2010 • 29 Comments
ProShares' New Short Treasury ETF Arrives Right on Time
Tom Lydon • Fri, Aug 21, 2009 • 5 Comments
ProShares Launches Inverse Treasury ETF
Michael Johnston • Thu, Aug 20, 2009 • 8 Comments

No Bubble Yet -- But The Compressor Needs To Be Shut Off
Kyle Rudduck • Wed, May 22 • 3 Comments
Bond Bubble: Risk Premium Factor Model Suggests Fair Value Yield On 10-Year Treasury Is 4.4%
Steve Hassett • Mon, May 20 • 9 Comments
The Safest Way To Play Rising Interest Rates
Nick Patterson • Mon, May 13 • 9 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - May 2013
Ploutos • Mon, May 6 • 5 Comments
What's Ahead For U.S. Interest Rates?
Malay Bansal • Sun, Apr 28 • 53 Comments
3 Tenets Of Sound Risk Management Revisited
Michael Fabian • Tue, Apr 23 • 3 Comments
3 Ways To Play Rising Interest Rates
Michael Fabian • Thu, Apr 18 • 12 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year At Its 2013 Low
Doug Short • Fri, Apr 5 • 3 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - April 2013
Ploutos • Tue, Apr 2 • 8 Comments
Strategies For A Rising Rate Environment: Inverse Bond Funds
Robert Wagner • Wed, Mar 27 • 14 Comments
Decrease Your Investment Risk Using Natural Hedging
Martin Vlcek • Thu, Mar 21 • 19 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - March 2013
Ploutos • Fri, Mar 1 • 10 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year Still Hovering Near 2%
Doug Short • Sun, Feb 24 • 2 Comments
Some ETFs For Rising Interest Rates
Tom Lydon • Tue, Feb 19 • 1 Comment
Gold Is Behaving Like A Leveraged Long Bond
Robert Wagner • Wed, Feb 13 • 11 Comments
The Debt Is Irrelevant (For Now) And What That Means To Interest Rates
Squeeky Wheel • Mon, Feb 11 • 25 Comments
Sick Of High Gas Prices? Hedging Strategies For Your Everyday Costs
Robert Wagner • Mon, Feb 11 • 7 Comments
The Bond Vigilantes Have Been Taken Out Back And Shot
Paulo Santos • Tue, Feb 5 • 42 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum Strategies - February 2013
Ploutos • Fri, Feb 1 • 6 Comments
Is It Finally Time To Short U.S. Treasury Bonds?
Maxsoar • Thu, Jan 10 • 16 Comments

There are no Transcripts on TBF.

Final Trade: Your First Move for Monday, April 1

at CNBC.com (Mar 28, 2013)
Stocks Drift - Is it the Fed or the 'Fiscal Cliff?'

at CNBC.com (Dec 13, 2012)
Peter Brimelow: QE3 rules — for now

at MarketWatch.com (Sep 17, 2012)
Buy Dips, Bernanke Comments Bullish for Stocks: Fast Pros

at CNBC.com (Feb 29, 2012)
Fixed-Income Bears See Trouble in Reflation Policy

at CNBC.com (Feb 13, 2012)
The Guru's Corner: What do Bill and Warren know that we don’t?

at MarketWatch.com (Apr 4, 2011)
U.S. long bonds to outperform 10-year notes

at MarketWatch.com (Mar 25, 2011)
Did Congress sell America short?

at MarketWatch.com (May 4, 2010)
Jim Lowell: Balancing shorts, bonds and coal

at MarketWatch.com (May 3, 2010)

TBF vs. ETF Alternatives

TBF Description

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website

Country: United States

Key Info

In Your Portfolio: Broad U.S. Bond ETFs, A Guide to U.S. Government Bond ETFs
Asset Class Performance: Bonds

All
| Earnings
| Dividends
| M&A
| On the move

Wednesday, May 22, 10:42 AM Bernanke: Stocks continue with solid gains as the chairman suggests the Fed may never sell the massive assets it's accumulated, instead just letting them roll down. Most interesting are Treasury prices (TLT -1.1%) rolling over - the 10-year yield sunk to 1.89% as Bernanke's soft comments hit the tape, but has reversed to now threaten 2%. Gold (GLD +0.6%) has given up much of its knee-jerk gains, and the dollar (UUP +0.3%) is having none of it, higher across the board, particularly vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%), yen (FXY -1%), and loonie (FXC -0.6%). 5 Comments
Monday, May 20, 9:47 AM UBS' 5 "suspected" asset bubbles: 1) Risk-free rates - specifically Treasurys (TLT), Bunds (BUND, BUNL), JGBs (JGBL, JGBT, JGBD, JGBS) 2) Credit (HYG, JNK) 3) Real estate in Asia (WPS) 4) Certain EM equity markets (EIDO, IDXJ, EPHE, THD, EWW) 5) Australian banks (WBK, NABZY.PK, ANZBY.PK, CMWAY.PK). Comment!
Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 16, 8:38 AM SPY -0.3% premarket, giving up small early gains after a big jump in jobless claims and a rather shocking decline in housing starts. Starts were off 16.5% from March, but up 13.1% Y/Y. On a more hopeful note, building permits were up 14.3% from March, up 35.8% Y/Y. Treasurys catch a bid, TLT +0.5% premarket. Homebuilders ETF: XHB -0.2%. Comment!
Monday, May 13, 8:50 AM Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 10, 10:35 AM Bill Gross (BOND) attempts to ring a bell, calling the 30-year bond bull market over as of April 29, 2013 (while pushing Pimco as the one to help navigate in this new world). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 2.8% at April's end. Including a 9 bp pop today, the yield now stands at 3.08%. TLT -1%, TBT +1.9%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 1:47 PM Massive doesn't begin to describe the move into the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST) last Wednesday as the $12M AUM fund went to $833M overnight. It was accompanied by a 53% increase in the $3.75B iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), suggesting someone (or ones) making a large bet targeting the middle of the Treasury curve. The moves came following FOMC minutes at which it indicated a readiness to increase QE as needed. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 6:23 AM "Today government bonds should come with a warning about interest rate risk," a university fund manager tells FT, which says many university endowments have slashed their U.S. Treasury (TLT, TBT) holdings from as high as 30% of AUM during the crisis to as low as zero currently ("everyone" has less than 5%, one manager claims). Holding fast to larger allocations may require a fleetness of foot going forward in order to avoid capital losses if (or when) rates rise, a style of investing not suited to endowment managers. 1 Comment
Wednesday, May 8, 12:29 PM "There is no safe haven in today's markets," says Paul Singer, speaking at the Ira Sohn conference, and blaming the distorting effects of QE. While not yet advocating shorting Treasurys (TLT, TBT), Singer says those long need to know they're trading at the wrong price, perhaps 50-100 basis points too low. 1 Comment [Breaking News, U.S. Economy]
Monday, May 6, 3:29 PM This time is different for Treasurys (TLT, TBT)? "The Fed has been very transparent and their transparency should help offset the risks that were experienced in 1994," says JPMorgan's head of rates Edward Fitzpatrick. He's joined in this opinion by others who ought to know better, including Templeton's Michael Materasso and Vanguard's Gemma Wright-Casparius, all of whom attribute the 1994 rout to communication, not a crazed buildup in leverage. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 3, 3:13 PM "Bonds are acting like the bond market is manipulated ... because it is," says Jeff Gundlach, as QE is far more of a put on Treasury prices (TLT -2.3%) than it is on stocks. A salve to bond bulls on a day when the yield on the 30-year is 14 bps higher, Gundlach says yields won't go on a sustained rise anytime soon because QE is going nowhere. A favorite of the bond bears, TBT +4.6%. 7 Comments
Thursday, May 2, 8:36 AM More on the big drop in jobless claims: At 324K, it's the lowest level since January 2008. The 4-week moving average fell 16K to 342,250. S&P 500 futures remain +0.5%. Treasury prices slip, TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2% premarket. 18 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, April 30, 9:07 AM "View the 'fruit' debt the way we used to view IBM issues ... perfectly timed in retrospect," says Kevin Ferry, tweeting about Apple's prospective debt offering. Back in the day when rates actually fluctuated, IBM had a remarkable knack for issuing at the cycle lows in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield hits another YTD low, -2 bps to 1.65%. TLT +0.4% premarket. 1 Comment [Financials]
Friday, April 26, 8:45 AM More on the Q1 GDP (first estimate) miss: Government spending slowdown continues, with real federal government spending off 8.4% vs. 14.8% in Q4; defense spending off 11.5% vs. 22.1%. Real PCE +3.2%. Nonresidential fixed investment +2.1%. Real exports +2.9%, Real imports +5.4%. Real final sales +1.5% vs. 1.9% in Q4. Inventories added 103 bps to GDP in Q1 after subtracting 152 bps in Q4. SPY -0.3% premarket. The long bond pops half of a point. TLT +0.8% premarket. (full report) 68 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, April 25, 10:16 AM SocGen's Al Edwards doesn't disappoint his fans, believing the S&P is headed to 450 and gold to $10K. Most interesting is this chart on bond yields vs. forecasts. Forecasts in the deeper past essentially matched actual yields, yet for the last decade estimates have consistently called for "normalization," i.e. higher rates, but it's never happened. "Consensus has still not accepted that we remain locked in an Ice Age environment that will see U.S. (and U.K. and German) yields (TLT, TBT) converge to Japanese sub-1%." 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 24, 8:47 AM The long bond moves higher (yield declines) following the soft durable goods report. In addition to the weak March print, February's 5.6% gain was revised down to 4.3%, with nondefense ex-transport orders revised down to -4.7% from -2.7%. Higher previously, the 30-year yield is now off one basis point to 2.9%. TLT flat premarket. Comment! [U.S. Economy]

Gabu
$TBF: Is it worth going long on TBF now (30.50) ?
Feb 13, 11:35 AM
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Alan Brochstein
$TBF (and $TBT for aggressive trades) looks like a buy here
9/27/12
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bigdividendsonly: Playing TMV for the day. These are short time trading vehicles and the more leverage the better
9/27/12
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Alan Brochstein
32-year bull market in bonds may be ending $TBF and also $TBT for those who can manage the leverage properly
9/16/12
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DaLatin: TMV go for gusto If you can manage risk ! Why b shy
9/17/12
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alsobirdman: Yes, been making a few bucks trading TMV since you recommended, DL. Holding some long as well
9/18/12
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Mateo Blumer
Spanish bond yields soar, Nasdaq opens down 2%. The play? Long AAPL, short SPY QQQ and watch for TBF to hit new lows for possible long buy
7/23/12
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Mateo Blumer
How much further can US bond yields fall? Time to start looking at TBF and TBT to capitalize on interest rates falling
11/7/11
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Michael Kudrna
Using Treasuries As A Shadow Chart $TBT $TBF $SPY $$ http://bit.ly/va2Idq/
10/31/11
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Nigam Arora
Most Investors Miss The Point: Operation Twist Is Brilliant (DZZ) (GLD) (GLL) (QLD) (QQQ) (SLV) (SPY) (SSO) (TBF) (TBT) (TLT) (ZSL)
9/26/11
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora: U.S. Downgraded: What to Do Now GLD, QQQ, SLV, SPY, TBF, TBT, TLT, ZSL ,DIA http://bit.ly/oogUAO
8/9/11
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Nigam Arora
U.S. Downgraded: What to Do Now GLD, QQQ, SLV, SPY, TBF, TBT, TLT, ZSL ,DIA http://seekingalpha.com/a/645b
8/7/11
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Nigam Arora
EFZ, EWU,FAZ,FEU, FXF, FXP, FXY, GLD,JJG, KRS, OIH, SBB, SEF, SH, SLV, SMH, SMN, TBF, TBT, TLT, TWM, UUP, XLK, ZSL http://bit.ly/pQv0mM
8/6/11
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LATEST REPLIES

Alan Brochstein
$TBF (and $TBT for aggressive trades) looks like a buy here
9/27/12
Reply (1)

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bigdividendsonly: Playing TMV for the day. These are short time trading vehicles and the more leverage the better
9/27/12
• !Report Abuse
Add a reply...

140 characters

Alan Brochstein
32-year bull market in bonds may be ending $TBF and also $TBT for those who can manage the leverage properly
9/16/12
Reply (2)

• !Report Abuse
View all 2 replies
DaLatin: TMV go for gusto If you can manage risk ! Why b shy
9/17/12
• !Report Abuse
alsobirdman: Yes, been making a few bucks trading TMV since you recommended, DL. Holding some long as well
9/18/12
• !Report Abuse
Add a reply...

140 characters

TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF

TBF

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF