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Monday, March 19, 2012, 10:21 AM Last week's Treasury bond sell off - the worst since last summer - prompts UBS to declare the end of the 2-decade bull market. New "bond king" Jeff Gundlach agrees to a point, but says the 10-year too far above 3% (currently 2.32%) would self-correct because of the resultant damage to the economy. TLT -0.3%. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 12:02 PM The action in Treasurys through 2011 and thus far this year reminds Jim Leaviss of 1993-94, where 2011 (1993) proved wonderful only to have things crash down in 2012 (1994). One key difference: "There's no way that central banks are going to hike rates this year is there?" TLT -8.5% YTD after rising 28.8% in 2011. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 10:02 AM More on Consumer Sentiment: Inflation expectations rose to 4.0% from 3.3% in February, the highest level since May 2011. The weak print on sentiment combined with larger inflation concerns delivers a small hit to stocks, now flat after a modestly higher open. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 8:46 AM The cool CPI number fails to stem the run in long-dated Treasurys, the 30-year +4 bps to 3.45%, the 10-year +5.5 bps to 2.33%. TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2% premarket. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, March 15, 2012, 4:45 PM The sell off in Treasurys may have more to do with China's falling trade surpluses than anything happening with the U.S. economy. Greenback emission from America's trade deficit might be falling into hands less-friendly and less-willing to recycle surplus dollars into long-term U.S. paper, suggests Bruce Krasting. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, March 15, 2012, 3:37 PM Treasury prices rebound from sharp early losses, but yields remain at multi-month highs, no longer unable to ignore solid economic news and a surging stock market. The 30-year is at 3.41%, the 10-year at 2.28%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, March 15, 2012, 9:53 AM The ECRI maintains its recession call in the face of improving economic data, saying the Great Recession has messed with seasonal adjustment patterns, skewing recent headline data to the upside. "Can unprecedented, concerted global monetary policy action repeal the business cycle ... it cannot." 32 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, March 15, 2012, 8:41 AM Stock index futures remain near morning highs after the 8:30 data dump. S&P +0.3%. The action again today could be in the Treasury market as the numbers point to continuing growth with inflation now a concern. The prices paid index for the Empire survey nearly doubled to 50 and core PPI is running 3% Y/Y. The 30-year Treasury +6 bps to 3.46%. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, March 15, 2012, 7:36 AM "Markets are beginning to (rightly in our opinion) view the Fed's commitment on Fed funds as a worthless promise," says ING's Rob Carnell, as thoughts turn to 1992-93, another period when markets had gotten used to low rates forever. The bond market carnage of 1994 ensued. The 10-year is up another 2 bps to 2.28%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, March 14, 2012, 1:15 PM Treasury prices get no relief from a reasonable auction of 30-year paper, the long bond still down nearly 2 full points, and the yield 10.5 bps higher at 3.38%. The 10-year note is off a point and a quarter, the yield up 10 bps to 2.24%. TLT -2.2%. 8 Comments [U.S. Economy, On the Move]
Wednesday, March 14, 2012, 1:06 PM The Treasury sells $13B in 30-year bonds (.pdf), priced to yield 3.383%. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.69, vs. a recent 2.60; indirect bidders take 29.0%, vs. a recent 31.9%. Direct bidders take 14.7%, vs. a recent 7.2%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, March 14, 2012, 7:13 AM Treasury yields seem finally to be confirming what equities have been saying during 2012, now hitting the highest levels since October. The 10-year +6 bps to 2.19%, the 30-year up 8 bps to 3.35. TLT -1.1% permarket. The UltraShort ETF: TBT +2.1% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, March 13, 2012, 11:15 AM Long-term Treasury yields march to new 2012 highs as retail sales (ex-auto) beat expectations and money continues to flow into equities. The 10-year and 30-year are both 5 bps higher to 2.08% and 3.22% respectively. The popular ultra-short Treasury ETF (TBT) - known in past years for its relentless slide lower - is +8.5% YTD. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, March 12, 2012, 1:41 PM Doug Kass takes another stab at shorting long-dated Treasurys, noting (among other reasons) fund flows - which have seen an unprecedented wave of money coming out of stocks and into bonds - have reached a tipping point. The bleeding of stock funds looks to have stopped, meaning an "inevitable" reallocation from fixed income to equities is coming. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 9, 2012, 2:41 PM Ten-year Treasury yields at 2% suggest an economic slowdown, while narrowing corporate spreads point to a healthy expansion, notes Sober Look. It's Treasury yields looking more suspect given the rise in inflation expectations, meaning it's a matter of time before the 10-year begins a move towards 3%. TLT -0.3%. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 9, 2012, 8:47 AM Treasury prices head south following the solid NFP report, Thirty-year bond futures diving more than half a point. Moving in the other direction is the yield, +4 basis points to 3.22%. On the short end, September 2014 Eurodollar futures budge 3.5 basis points lower, pricing in a slightly greater chance of future Fed rate hikes. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy, On the Move]

TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF

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ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF