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Friday, March 9, 2012, 8:47 AM Treasury prices head south following the solid NFP report, Thirty-year bond futures diving more than half a point. Moving in the other direction is the yield, +4 basis points to 3.22%. On the short end, September 2014 Eurodollar futures budge 3.5 basis points lower, pricing in a slightly greater chance of future Fed rate hikes. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy, On the Move]
Sunday, March 4, 2012, 7:02 PM Not only is further stimulus off the table, but the Fed is likely to emerge from next week's policy meeting with a slightly more upbeat view of the economy, reports Jon Hilsenrath. The fast decline in unemployment has taken Fed officials by surprise, and it could mean more underlying strength in the economy than other data would indicate. 31 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, February 29, 2012, 5:07 PM We are no longer in a crisis, so we should step away from crisis thinking, Philadelphia Fed chief Plosser tells CNBC, going on to say a rate hike could be coming in 2012. The similarities between 2011 and 2012 continue to grow. It was about this time last year Fed hawks were floating 2011 hikes ... just as the economy was set to roll over. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, February 27, 2012, 1:04 PM The bond market's (still the world's most hated asset class) continued strength in the face of positive economic surprises and the embracing of risk means Treasurys are treating spiking oil prices as a "deflationary shock," writes David Rosenberg, reminding that each penny increase at the pump "siphons away around $1.5B from consumer wallets." 2 Comments [U.S. Economy, Energy]
Wednesday, February 22, 2012, 5:02 PM "I have great confidence the Fed is ultimately going to get their way," says Lee Cooperman, explaining the bear case on Treasurys. "I don't think people understand how risky a U.S. government bond is at 2% return." He's keeping his money in what has worked - gold, the S&P, Apple (AAPL), and Qualcomm (QCOM), among others. Treasurys have worked too - how about a little love? 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, February 22, 2012, 3:56 PM Citigroup's economic surprise index remains at a very high level (meaning the news has been mostly good over the past weeks). If history is any guide, the news is about to turn worse as this read is as mean-reverting as they come. Maybe of most interest is the refusal of the 10-year Treasury to play along - past correlations imply today's yield should be around 5%! 1 Comment [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, February 21, 2012, 12:41 PM Along with the move to Dow 13K is the 10-year Treasury yield breaking out to a new 2012 high, hitting 2.07%. On the day Greece, Europe, and the world was last saved (Oct. 27), the 10-year was at 2.40%, and it spent the first 7 months of 2011 north of 3%. If a bear move is in the offing, it hasn't even gotten started yet. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, February 20, 2012, 12:10 PM The eurozone's crisis has shifted focus away from the U.S.'s enormous debt load and has lifted foreign demand for Treasurys. Once global factors cede the spotlight, and eventually they will, and as the Fed starts to remove itself as a buyer, Treasurys may be poised for some pain. 22 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, February 9, 2012, 3:18 PM "We are literally running out of superlatives to describe how much we hate bonds," writes Jeremy Grantham. Low yields, the chance of a slight economic recovery, and easy central bank policy are his key reasons to avoid the paper. Stick with high quality stocks, whose move higher is just in the early innings. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, February 8, 2012, 1:22 PM Long-dated Treasury prices cut the day's losses a bit after a solid auction. The 30-year +0.01 to 3.15%, the 10-year +0.01 to 1.98%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, February 6, 2012, 4:08 PM Stung by poor performance and investment outflows in 2011 due to bets against long-term Treasuries Bill Gross' Total Return Fund is off to an impressive start in 2012. Gross has decided not to fight easy Fed policy, increasing his exposure to longer-dated U.S. paper. "His Treasury position is properly placed," says a Lipper analyst. That remains to be seen. Comment! [Financials]
Monday, February 6, 2012, 1:01 PM Don't look for an end to the Treasury bull market just yet, says Capital Economics' Julian Jessop. He sees the 10-year falling to 1.5% this year, as the current bounce in economic indicators flattens out, Europe and China continue to slow, and the Fed continues with ultra-ease. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Monday, February 6, 2012, 11:18 AM Recent earnings reports from bellweathers like Procter & Gamble (PG) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) - both of which announced rollbacks of price increases after losing market share - may give a good idea of why investors are willing to accept less than 2% on the 10-year Treasury. "Benign inflation" will be with us for some time, says David Ader. Comment! [Consumer, U.S. Economy]
Friday, February 3, 2012, 10:04 AM QE3 is not off the table even with an expanding employment market, says Bill Gross, heavily long Treasurys after an ill-timed bet against the paper in 2011. For today at least, Treasurys are taking it on the chin, the 10-year yield up 10 bps to 1.92%. TLT -2.1%. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, February 2, 2012, 12:45 PM Long-term Treasury yields that continue near all-time lows even as the economic numbers improve and risk goes full-on in 2012? Look no further than Operation Twist, under which the Fed has purchased 91% of the government's 20-30 year debt issuance. What happens when the Fed stops? What happens to the Fed's balance sheet if rates rise? 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, January 31, 2012, 12:20 PM After a brief run above 2%, the 10-year Treasury yield touches a new YTD low of 1.8%. No matter what might be happening in equityland, the Fed's pledge to hold overnight rates at 0-0.25% for seemingly a generation allows carry traders to finance government securities for next to nothing, making even 1.8% look attractive. Are TBT holders foiled again? 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]

TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF

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ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF