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Thursday, February 7, 7:36 AM Short Treasurys on and off for the past several years, Jim Rogers is giving it another go. He's joined - for completely different reasons - by stock bull Jim Paulsen, who says the 30-plus year era of bonds offering competitive returns relative to stocks has probably ended. TLT -3.5% YTD. A favorite of the bond bears, TBT +6.4% YTD. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, February 1, 8:47 AM S&P 500 futures add to gains, +0.6% following the payroll report. The price on the long bond spikes half a point higher as bond traders know the Fed has its eye on the unemployment rate - the rise to 7.9% should halt any talk of a premature end to asset purchases. 3 Comments
Thursday, January 31, 9:10 AM Credit in the U.S. ($56T and counting) is a supernova star, says Bill Gross - its expansion produces less and less heat and ultimately causes the star to consume itself. In the 1980's, it took $4 of new credit to create another $1 of GDP; over the last decade it's taken $10, and since 2006, $20. The comparison ends there, says Gross, as inflation rather than implosion lies ahead. Shorten duration, buy TIPs, look offshore for positive real rates of return. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, January 28, 3:30 PM The backup in Treasury yields - with the 10-year hitting 2% today for the first time in nearly a year - is a buying opportunity, according to Capital Economics' John Higgins. One datapoint of interest: In 7 major tightening cycles since the early 1970s, the trough in Treasury yields occurred an average 7 months before the first Fed Funds tightening. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, January 25, 7:08 AM More from Soros (previous): Bond investors might want to study the price action in 1994 if Soros is right in that interest rates are going to take a big leap once the economy gets moving - nothing profound there, but like 1994 it could sneak up and bite fixed income longs. Soros suggests it might already be happening and once the fog of the budget nonsense lifts, economic strength will be far clearer to see. 4 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, January 16, 11:34 AM The 10-year Treasury yield's early move in 2013 to threaten 2% could be another fake-out, says Bespoke. The quick jump higher looks like any number of other moves over the past year, and the higher yields have always brought in buyers (the Fed?) to quickly drive them back down. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, January 11, 3:06 PM The bond bulls at Hoisington Management remain unshaken in a global economy with "an insufficiency of aggregate demand." Rates may raise here and there because markets fluctuate, but underlying fundamentals assure they won't stay there long. The recent budget deal adds another headwind, and they expect Q4 numbers will look better-than-expected, but at the expense of 2013 Q1. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 8, 4:32 PM Gundlach: Weighing in on one of the world's more hated asset classes, he says Treasurys aren't terribly overvalued on a relative basis. If you've got to short government paper, make it that of France, he says, where the 2-year note yields 0.13% and the 10-year 2.11%. 6 Comments
Thursday, January 3, 8:50 AM "We recommend unwinding this position at a loss," says Citigroup, throwing in the towel on its bullish mid-November call on Treasurys. The Cliff deal avoids big tax hikes for most, says Citi, and removes the tail risk of massive spending cuts. Treasury prices are down again following the strong ADP print. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, January 2, 7:22 AM Could this be the year? Ten-year Treasury yields start the year moving higher, up 7 basis points to 1.82%. The early word on the fiscal cliff deal is it adds trillions to the deficit and raises taxes on nearly all households - nice work all around. A favorite trading vehicle for Treasury shorts, TBT +1.6% premarket. 9 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 11:51 AM Long-term Treasury yields accelerate their move to the upside in the days following the Fed's open-ended promise to spend $45B/month keeping a lid on them. The 10-year yield is 20 basis points higher in December to 1.80%. TLT -0.7% today and now lower YTD. 28 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, December 13, 2012, 10:29 AM Are bells ringing for bond bears? First incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney lauds the idea of nominal GDP targeting, then the Fed axes its inflation target in favor of a focus on lower unemployment. Now U.K. Treasury Chancellor Osborne says he would consider scrapping that country's 2% inflation target in exchange for something more growth-oriented. 4 Comments [Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 27, 2012, 8:19 AM "Complacency," is the title of an early slide of Terry Belton's at JPMorgan's Fixed Income Conference (just getting underway). Ninety percent of surveyed investors expect the 10-year Treasury yield to remain below 2.5% in 2013; just 1% expect it above 3%. The levels are important, of course, but the survey also suggests about zero expectation for any volatility in rates. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Monday, November 26, 2012, 7:05 AM Fed involvement and investors' reflexive demand for safety are not just keeping a lid on Treasury yields, they've also brought volatility in the bond market to about the lowest on record. BAML's MOVE index recently fell to 53.70, nearing the 51.2 hit in May 2007. "Treasurys offer little real value, but in the short term, it is just hard to be a bear," says a fund manager, serving up a quote for a to-be-written book on the Bernanke-era bond market. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Sunday, November 25, 2012, 8:05 PM "It's my worst nightmare," says a long-only bond fund manager. "There's nothing I can do - the checks come in every day, and I have to invest (the money)." Aging baby boomers following conventional wisdom by steering their accounts away from stocks and to fixed income at these low rates could get a very expensive lesson, writes Jonathan Trugman. (see also) 38 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, November 20, 2012, 5:11 PM What is the risky asset, asks Jim Grant, scratching his head over the worldwide move into fixed-income paper "certified" as safe (I, II, III), even as the actions of central banks make them "certifiably unsafe." Calling the fiscal cliff the Y2K of 2012, Grant says time is better spent searching for cheap assets (MetLife previously). "Stocks bought well are going to do well. Bonds yielding nothing are not." 1 Comment [Quick Ideas]

TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF

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ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF