Is TBT a buy? - Seeking Alpha

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HEADLINES:

Why Inflation Never Came
The Market Flash • Tue, May 21 • 256 Comments
Bond Bubble: Risk Premium Factor Model Suggests Fair Value Yield On 10-Year Treasury Is 4.4%
Steve Hassett • Mon, May 20 • 9 Comments
The Safest Way To Play Rising Interest Rates
Nick Patterson • Mon, May 13 • 8 Comments
Time To Change Investment Strategy On Wall Street
BubbleBustInvesting • Sun, May 12 • 7 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - May 2013
Ploutos • Mon, May 6 • 5 Comments
Sell Apple And Cover TBT
Stock Traders Daily • Fri, May 3 • 4 Comments
Is A Strong Employment Report A Game Changer For Bonds, Stocks, And Precious Metals?
BubbleBustInvesting • Fri, May 3 • 6 Comments
The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways To Escape The Damage
Wall Street Wisdom • Sat, Apr 27 • 33 Comments
Invest In U.S. Treasuries
John M. Mason • Wed, Apr 24 • 18 Comments
3 Ways To Play Rising Interest Rates
Michael Fabian • Thu, Apr 18 • 11 Comments
Bond Market Review Q1 2013
Ploutos • Mon, Apr 8 • 7 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year At Its 2013 Low
Doug Short • Fri, Apr 5 • 3 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - April 2013
Ploutos • Tue, Apr 2 • 8 Comments
The 30 Year Treasury Bond Makes No Sense Compared To Dividend Stocks
Tim McAleenan Jr. • Mon, Apr 1 • 38 Comments
Inflation Will Not Take Off Until This Happens
Larry Trefz • Wed, Mar 27 • 34 Comments
Will The Government Confiscate Your Gold And Bank Deposits?
Doug Eberhardt • Wed, Mar 20 • 84 Comments
How To Trade A Strong Employment Report
BubbleBustInvesting • Fri, Mar 8 • 23 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - March 2013
Ploutos • Fri, Mar 1 • 10 Comments
50% World-Wide Debt Forgiveness: Creditors And Debtors Could Both Win
Larry Trefz • Fri, Mar 1 • 29 Comments
Investment Dilemma - Where To Invest In Today's Minefield?
James Yardley • Mon, Feb 25 • 9 Comments

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The 30 Year Treasury Bond Makes No Sense Compared To Dividend Stocks
Tim McAleenan Jr. • Mon, Apr 1 • 38 Comments
The Treasury Run: Part II
Matt Erickson • Fri, Feb 22 • 8 Comments
The Bottom Drops Out Of ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury And Bearish Signs Increase
Dr. Duru • Tue, May 15, 2012 • 37 Comments
Attractive Interest Rate Play With Treasury ETF Options
Mateo Blumer • Sat, May 5, 2012 • 7 Comments
TBT: Better Than Most, But Not Perfect
Sammy Pollack • Sun, Apr 8, 2012 • 14 Comments
Looking Like A Bottom For TBT
Dr. Duru • Wed, Mar 14, 2012 • 28 Comments
Why It May Finally Be Safe To Short The 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Logical Thought • Mon, Jan 30, 2012 • 91 Comments
ETF Spotlight: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury
Tom Lydon • Thu, Jun 30, 2011 • 6 Comments
The Bond Market's Inflation-Forecasting Abilities
Calafia Beach Pundit • Mon, May 16, 2011 • 11 Comments
Rising Inflation Points to Rising Bond Yields
Calafia Beach Pundit • Fri, May 13, 2011 • 7 Comments
TBT Finally Breaks Down, TIP Continues to Grind Upward
Dr. Duru • Thu, May 5, 2011 • 4 Comments
Why the SEC Should Look at Levered ETFs
Felix Salmon • Sun, May 1, 2011 • 19 Comments
Chart Review: TBT Survives the Test as Gross Growls and Romer Fails
Dr. Duru • Wed, Apr 13, 2011 • 3 Comments
QE2: A Mistaken Policy Creating Unnecessary Peril
David Roskoph • Mon, Apr 11, 2011 • 10 Comments
6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now
Bret Jensen • Mon, Apr 4, 2011 • 115 Comments
What's Behind Call Selling in TBT
optionMONSTER • Wed, Mar 16, 2011 • 3 Comments
Time Potentially Drawing Near to Dump TBT
Dr. Duru • Mon, Feb 28, 2011 • 3 Comments
Is There a Bull Market in Our Future as the Bond Market Dies?
Brian McMorris • Wed, Jan 12, 2011 • 9 Comments
Using TBT to Protect Against Mortgage Interest Rates
David Oldenburg • Mon, Jan 10, 2011 • 11 Comments
Higher Bond Yields Go Hand in Hand With Stronger Growth
Calafia Beach Pundit • Wed, Jan 5, 2011 • 2 Comments

Why Inflation Never Came
The Market Flash • Tue, May 21 • 256 Comments
Bond Bubble: Risk Premium Factor Model Suggests Fair Value Yield On 10-Year Treasury Is 4.4%
Steve Hassett • Mon, May 20 • 9 Comments
The Safest Way To Play Rising Interest Rates
Nick Patterson • Mon, May 13 • 8 Comments
Time To Change Investment Strategy On Wall Street
BubbleBustInvesting • Sun, May 12 • 7 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - May 2013
Ploutos • Mon, May 6 • 5 Comments
Sell Apple And Cover TBT
Stock Traders Daily • Fri, May 3 • 4 Comments
Is A Strong Employment Report A Game Changer For Bonds, Stocks, And Precious Metals?
BubbleBustInvesting • Fri, May 3 • 6 Comments
The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways To Escape The Damage
Wall Street Wisdom • Sat, Apr 27 • 33 Comments
Invest In U.S. Treasuries
John M. Mason • Wed, Apr 24 • 18 Comments
3 Ways To Play Rising Interest Rates
Michael Fabian • Thu, Apr 18 • 11 Comments
Bond Market Review Q1 2013
Ploutos • Mon, Apr 8 • 7 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year At Its 2013 Low
Doug Short • Fri, Apr 5 • 3 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - April 2013
Ploutos • Tue, Apr 2 • 8 Comments
Inflation Will Not Take Off Until This Happens
Larry Trefz • Wed, Mar 27 • 34 Comments
Will The Government Confiscate Your Gold And Bank Deposits?
Doug Eberhardt • Wed, Mar 20 • 84 Comments
How To Trade A Strong Employment Report
BubbleBustInvesting • Fri, Mar 8 • 23 Comments
Fixed Income Momentum - March 2013
Ploutos • Fri, Mar 1 • 10 Comments
50% World-Wide Debt Forgiveness: Creditors And Debtors Could Both Win
Larry Trefz • Fri, Mar 1 • 29 Comments
Investment Dilemma - Where To Invest In Today's Minefield?
James Yardley • Mon, Feb 25 • 9 Comments
Treasury Yield Snapshot: 10-Year Still Hovering Near 2%
Doug Short • Sun, Feb 24 • 2 Comments

There are no Transcripts on TBT.

'Rip-Roaring Bull Market' Ahead: Pro

at CNBC.com (May 14, 2013)
'Something Has to Break': Joe Terranova

at CNBC.com (Apr 29, 2013)
Bond Report: Bond yields jump most this week since September

at MarketWatch.com (Jan 4, 2013)
Peter Brimelow: QE3 rules — for now

at MarketWatch.com (Sep 17, 2012)
Hate the Low Volatility? Bet Against It!

at CNBC.com (Aug 15, 2012)
Stocks, dollar gain; ISM trumps G-7

at MarketWatch.com (Jun 5, 2012)
Dow falls for fourth day, oil edges higher

at MarketWatch.com (Jun 4, 2012)
Stocks, oil tank; Treasurys, gold win big after payrolls

at MarketWatch.com (Jun 1, 2012)
Messy May for stocks, oil; Treasurys end on a high note

at MarketWatch.com (May 31, 2012)
Bond yields, euro hit new lows; stocks, oil drop

at MarketWatch.com (May 30, 2012)
Spain's downgrade hits euro, commodities; stocks gain

at MarketWatch.com (May 29, 2012)
Stocks, bonds, commodities cut into week's moves

at MarketWatch.com (May 25, 2012)
Commodities, bonds reverse; stocks grope for direction

at MarketWatch.com (May 24, 2012)
Dollar, Treasurys gain on Europe uncertainty; stocks rebound

at MarketWatch.com (May 23, 2012)
Stocks lose steam at close; gold, oil end lower

at MarketWatch.com (May 22, 2012)
U.S. stocks, oil break losing streak; bonds extend rally

at MarketWatch.com (May 21, 2012)
Record-low yields, long dollar rally weigh on stocks, oil

at MarketWatch.com (May 17, 2012)
Markets turn on Greece, Fed; dollar index extends win streak

at MarketWatch.com (May 16, 2012)
Dollar's rally pushes stocks lower; Treasury yields near record lows

at MarketWatch.com (May 15, 2012)
Bonds, dollar extend impressive rallies; stocks wimper

at MarketWatch.com (May 11, 2012)

TBT vs. ETF Alternatives

TBT Description

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website

Country: United States

Key Info

In Your Portfolio: Broad U.S. Bond ETFs, A Guide to U.S. Government Bond ETFs
Asset Class Performance: Bonds

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| Earnings
| Dividends
| M&A
| On the move

Thursday, May 23, 10:04 PM An interesting exercise in the always dangerous practice of extrapolation: A look at this week's H.4.1 update shows the Fed holding $1.583T of outstanding 10-year equivalents or, a record 30.32%. By extension then, only 69.68% remains for the private sector. Currently, the figure is rising ~0.3% per week as Bernanke and company snap up Treasury bonds (TLT, TBT). Were that pace to continue until 2018, the Fed would be in possession of virtually the entire market. Food for thought from ZeroHedge and Stone & McCarthy. 3 Comments
Thursday, May 23, 8:40 AM More on jobless claims: The big decline nearly erases last week's large and unexpected jump, and will do nothing to ease concern about "tapering." The 4-week moving average is little-changed at 339,500. S&P 500 futures remain lower by 0.95%, but bond prices continue to give up some of their big early gains, TLT +0.3%. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, May 22, 2:10 PM Stocks had already shed their Bernanke-testimony gains from this morning and they head even lower following the release of the FOMC minutes showing a "number" willing to begin tapering QE as soon as the next policy meeting. S&P 500 (SPY -0.4%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.6%). The dollar (UUP +0.4%) moves to a new session-high, and Treasurys (TLT -1.3%) continue to sell off. 11 Comments
Wednesday, May 22, 10:42 AM Bernanke: Stocks continue with solid gains as the chairman suggests the Fed may never sell the massive assets it's accumulated, instead just letting them roll down. Most interesting are Treasury prices (TLT -1.1%) rolling over - the 10-year yield sunk to 1.89% as Bernanke's soft comments hit the tape, but has reversed to now threaten 2%. Gold (GLD +0.6%) has given up much of its knee-jerk gains, and the dollar (UUP +0.3%) is having none of it, higher across the board, particularly vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%), yen (FXY -1%), and loonie (FXC -0.6%). 5 Comments
Monday, May 20, 9:47 AM UBS' 5 "suspected" asset bubbles: 1) Risk-free rates - specifically Treasurys (TLT), Bunds (BUND, BUNL), JGBs (JGBL, JGBT, JGBD, JGBS) 2) Credit (HYG, JNK) 3) Real estate in Asia (WPS) 4) Certain EM equity markets (EIDO, IDXJ, EPHE, THD, EWW) 5) Australian banks (WBK, NABZY.PK, ANZBY.PK, CMWAY.PK). Comment!
Friday, May 17, 10:35 AM Stocks add to gains (SPY +0.6%) as the mid-May UMich Consumer Sentiment read rises to 83.7 vs. 76.4 at the end of April and against expectations for 78. The current conditions index jumped 7.6 points to 97.5 - a new high for the economic recovery. Treasurys (TLT -0.7%) slide further. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 16, 8:38 AM SPY -0.3% premarket, giving up small early gains after a big jump in jobless claims and a rather shocking decline in housing starts. Starts were off 16.5% from March, but up 13.1% Y/Y. On a more hopeful note, building permits were up 14.3% from March, up 35.8% Y/Y. Treasurys catch a bid, TLT +0.5% premarket. Homebuilders ETF: XHB -0.2%. Comment!
Wednesday, May 15, 3:40 PM More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? 15 Comments [Tech]
Monday, May 13, 8:50 AM Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 10, 10:35 AM Bill Gross (BOND) attempts to ring a bell, calling the 30-year bond bull market over as of April 29, 2013 (while pushing Pimco as the one to help navigate in this new world). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 2.8% at April's end. Including a 9 bp pop today, the yield now stands at 3.08%. TLT -1%, TBT +1.9%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 1:47 PM Massive doesn't begin to describe the move into the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST) last Wednesday as the $12M AUM fund went to $833M overnight. It was accompanied by a 53% increase in the $3.75B iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), suggesting someone (or ones) making a large bet targeting the middle of the Treasury curve. The moves came following FOMC minutes at which it indicated a readiness to increase QE as needed. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 6:23 AM "Today government bonds should come with a warning about interest rate risk," a university fund manager tells FT, which says many university endowments have slashed their U.S. Treasury (TLT, TBT) holdings from as high as 30% of AUM during the crisis to as low as zero currently ("everyone" has less than 5%, one manager claims). Holding fast to larger allocations may require a fleetness of foot going forward in order to avoid capital losses if (or when) rates rise, a style of investing not suited to endowment managers. 1 Comment
Wednesday, May 8, 12:29 PM "There is no safe haven in today's markets," says Paul Singer, speaking at the Ira Sohn conference, and blaming the distorting effects of QE. While not yet advocating shorting Treasurys (TLT, TBT), Singer says those long need to know they're trading at the wrong price, perhaps 50-100 basis points too low. 1 Comment [Breaking News, U.S. Economy]
Monday, May 6, 3:29 PM This time is different for Treasurys (TLT, TBT)? "The Fed has been very transparent and their transparency should help offset the risks that were experienced in 1994," says JPMorgan's head of rates Edward Fitzpatrick. He's joined in this opinion by others who ought to know better, including Templeton's Michael Materasso and Vanguard's Gemma Wright-Casparius, all of whom attribute the 1994 rout to communication, not a crazed buildup in leverage. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, May 6, 7:47 AM More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." 15 Comments

ltfinger
Returning Upgrades (5/3/13): $PBH, $PH, $POOL, $SCOR, $SM, $TBT, $TMV, $TREX, $TSO, $UCO, $USO, $WHR
May 6, 9:32 AM
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ltfinger
New Downgrades (3/27/13): $APD, $DOV, $E, $ETN, $EXP, $MHO, $PNR, $PX, $ROC, $SWI, $TBT, $TMO, $UTX, $VAL
Mar 28, 10:08 AM
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ltfinger
Today's Potential Downgrades (3/19/13): $SIAL, $SPLK, $SPXL, $SQM, $SSO, $SWI, $TBT, $THO, $TROW, $UPRO, $VIAB, $VMC, $WDAY
Mar 20, 8:52 AM
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x oil -field
Bloomberg: $TBT Treasuries Decline After U.S. Retail Sales Rise. http://bloom.bg/16rCyip $UUP
Mar 13, 9:05 AM
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x oil -field: Bloomberg: U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise as Retail Sales Increase. http://bloom.bg/Yrz349
Mar 13, 9:09 AM
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slyeib
dont see how we can miss with $TBT and a couple year bull rally
Mar 10, 5:50 PM
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Jeff Pierce
Bonds Will Be Under Pressure For Awhile | $TLT $TBT http://stks.co/q1Eu
Jan 30, 2:26 PM
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Saibus Research
Finally, an economist who gets it: http://bit.ly/V8vuom $TBT
Jan 16, 3:27 PM
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Jeff Pierce
Financial Astrology: Bond Update | $TBT http://bit.ly/Wc9V0f
12/29/12
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realornot: Thank You Jeff! Clock is ticking.....
12/29/12
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Derek Blain
$TLT, $TBT - hold on to your Treasury short/inverse positions. A break of 3.06% sets the stage for a swift move up to 3.50%
12/18/12
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Derek Blain: And we're off! $121 Jan puts up over 25% today, at $2.56. I'm expecting them to go to $4.50-$6.00 before the move is over.
12/18/12
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1980XLS-2.0
$TLT, $TBT http://1.usa.gov/SdvMW5
11/28/12
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LATEST REPLIES

x oil -field
Bloomberg: $TBT Treasuries Decline After U.S. Retail Sales Rise. http://bloom.bg/16rCyip $UUP
Mar 13, 9:05 AM
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x oil -field: Bloomberg: U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise as Retail Sales Increase. http://bloom.bg/Yrz349
Mar 13, 9:09 AM
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Jeff Pierce
Financial Astrology: Bond Update | $TBT http://bit.ly/Wc9V0f
12/29/12
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realornot: Thank You Jeff! Clock is ticking.....
12/29/12
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Derek Blain
$TLT, $TBT - hold on to your Treasury short/inverse positions. A break of 3.06% sets the stage for a swift move up to 3.50%
12/18/12
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Derek Blain: And we're off! $121 Jan puts up over 25% today, at $2.56. I'm expecting them to go to $4.50-$6.00 before the move is over.
12/18/12
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1980XLS-2.0
If interest rates normalize, it's curtains. TBT
11/15/12
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Energysystems: Yep, interest rates have been hogtied. But I don't see it with continued easing globally.
11/15/12
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1980XLS-2.0
Bond Vigilantes. Matter of when, not if. TBT, TLT
11/15/12
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Hillbilly Stock Star: AAPL......may issue bonds as cash is overseas, interesting, Long.
11/15/12
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Michael Bryant
TBT and many short funds did a reverse split. Guess the fund managers see gold, commodities, and the S&P 500 (SPY) going higher.
10/6/12
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Justin M. Hall: I agree. Good observation Michael.
10/6/12
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Justin M. Hall
10/4/12 2:55P ET: { Heads Up } Short T-Bond Funds Are on the Move Up - Again (TBT, TMV, SBND). Big Move Potential Here (links below).
10/4/12
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Will Erlandson: I only like to pay that much premium on larger stocks that I can sell front month calls against.
10/4/12
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Justin M. Hall: Will, I like your strategy. I do things a bit differently, but both methods will work. I also tend to make conservative recommendations.
10/4/12
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Bradley Fluetsch
China is keeping the US from a recession by lending vast quantities of make believe dollars. Is this really the right long-term policy? TBT
10/1/12
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1980XLS-2.0: Biggest buyer of treasuries by far is the fed, not China.
10/1/12
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Bradley Fluetsch: And that is to make me feel better? My focus would be on holders more so than current buyers of Treasuries.
10/1/12
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Alan Brochstein
$TBF (and $TBT for aggressive trades) looks like a buy here
9/27/12
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bigdividendsonly: Playing TMV for the day. These are short time trading vehicles and the more leverage the better
9/27/12
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Justin M. Hall
9/27/12 4:15A ET: [ Thank You! ] Recent Investor Feedback (TBT) http://bit.ly/TF3mbo
9/27/12
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Justin M. Hall: Check out the other highlights from the past 3+ years at the HEADLINES page on my site, Rx Investors.com. http://bit.ly/FRefJG
9/27/12
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Justin M. Hall: You might actually find some of this stuff pretty interesting.
9/27/12
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Jeff Pierce
The Bull Is Alive and Kicking http://bit.ly/P7jmex $TLT $TBT $VIX
9/26/12
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realornot: Agree, I see they are charging up its turbo engine!
9/26/12
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Cameronbeau: Nobody's worried about spain, greece
9/26/12
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Justin M. Hall
9/21/12 4:33A ET: [CORRELATION] Bullish Flags & Pennant Patterns are abundant. Flags: IWM, EWM, BAC, BTU, FAS, ORB, SBND, TBT, UGAZ, UNG.
9/21/12
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Justin M. Hall: It is good to be long.
9/21/12
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Buddaus: And Strong
9/21/12
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Alan Brochstein
32-year bull market in bonds may be ending $TBF and also $TBT for those who can manage the leverage properly
9/16/12
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DaLatin: TMV go for gusto If you can manage risk ! Why b shy
9/17/12
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alsobirdman: Yes, been making a few bucks trading TMV since you recommended, DL. Holding some long as well
9/18/12
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Justin M. Hall
9/18/12 3:47P ET: Now trading below its 200-day MA, (TLT) is likely to roll over and head south. Buys include TBT, TMV, SBND.
9/18/12
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Justin M. Hall: Telling: Today, TLT hit its head on the 200-day MA and sold off.
9/18/12
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Will Erlandson
Closed out shorts of SPY, QQQ, and GLD yesterday at severe losses. TBT, PNRA, and AAPL long positions have been a lifeline. Still good week.
9/14/12
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Will Erlandson: the damage. I'll say it every chance to get - thanks again for your original and continuing posts on TBT!
9/17/12
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Justin M. Hall: You bet, my friend.
9/17/12
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TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

TBT

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF