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TBT

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

6/18/2013, 5:41 PM ET

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Monday, June 17, 12:56 PM More from Zulauf at Barron's: Taking issue with the gathering consensus of a stronger economy and the Fed pulling back, Zulauf suggests bond yields (TLT, TBT) may have stopped rising and could be set to fall. In conjunction with that view, noncyclical names (XLU, XLV) could be set for a comeback at the expense of cyclical sectors (XLV, XLB, XLE). Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Monday, June 17, 8:42 AM More on Empire State: The headline number is a big beat, but employment conditions soften with the Number of Employees index falling to 0 from 5.68, and the Average Workweek falling to -11.29 from -1.14. New Orders fell to -6.69 from -1.17. Shipments dropped to -11.77 from about 0. The 6-month outlook inched down to 25. What rose? Prices received: To 11.29 from 4.55. Treasury prices (TLT, TBT) remain flat on the session. (full report) 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, June 14, 2:37 PM The anti-QE rhetoric is building just in time for next week's FOMC meeting, as Guggenheim's Scott Minerd channels his inner Bill Gross, calling the Treasury market (TLT, TBT) a "ponzi scheme." "The only reason investors would buy Treasurys today is that they expect the Federal Reserve will buy them at higher prices in the future," Minerd tells clients. The longer the Fed's bond buying continues, "the more volatility-inducing pressure will build." 13 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 13, 1:10 PM Treasury prices (TLT +0.6%) slide off the session highs as the 30-year auction prices the long bond at 3.355% vs. the when-issued yield of 3.324%. Stocks don't seem to mind, the S&P (SPY +0.7%) climbing to about the day's high. 3 Comments
Thursday, June 13, 8:53 AM A check of Treasurys following the marginally better-than-expected economic data at 8:30 finds prices giving up just a tiny bit of earlier gains, TLT +0.8%. The 10-year yield ticks up one bp to 2.19%. S&P 500 futures have nearly erased earlier losses, now off 0.1%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 12, 10:15 AM As a shaky bond market (TLT -0.8%) helps snuff out an early rally for stocks, Bill Gross reminds the Fed isn't hiking rates for years, and it makes intermediate-term Treasurys a buy at yields greater than 2%. The 10-year yield is up 3 bps to 2.22%. Treasury ETFs (long and short) in the 7-10 year range: IEF, PST, ITE, TENZ, TYNS, UST, VGIT, TBX, GVI. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, June 11, 10:19 AM Price matters and even though Bill Gross declared the secular bond bull market over 6 weeks ago, the 10-year Treasury (TLT) north of 2.2% is starting to hold some appeal. It's a "decent environment to earn your carry," he says. The Total Return Fund (BOND ... is not as vulnerable as investors believe it to be as witnessed in May." Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, June 11, 7:15 AM Bond yields stay on the rise, the 10-year Treasury up 5 bps to more than a one-year high of 2.27%. The long bond is up 2 bps to 3.4%. TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.6% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 6, 7:28 AM Add SocGen's professional bear Al Edwards to those doubting (previous) an imminent tapering: "I might be wrong, but I just don't see this economy as healthy," he tells CNBC. "If I am right than any sharp rise in bond yields (TLT) should quickly derail this apology of a recovery." The monthly jobs report (25 hours away) is definitely popcorn-worthy again. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 5, 11:16 AM Stocks broadly tumble in late-morning trade, the S&P 500 (SPY -0.8%), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.8%), and the Dow (DIA, DOG) off triple-digits. The financial sector (XLF -1.3%) leads the way, headed by a 2.1% decline in Citigroup. Higher interest rates may be the worry, but the stock market's fall pretty much means they're not coming. The 10-year Treasury yield slips 3 bps to 2.10%. TLT +1%, TBT -1.8%. 14 Comments
Wednesday, June 5, 8:22 AM Stock index futures shave a little from losses as Treasury prices rise following the weak ADP print. In addition to the soft 135K in job gains, April's increase is adjusted down by 6K to 113K. ADP's Carlos Rodriguez notes an increase of 5K construction jobs in May was offset by 6K jobs lost in manufacturing. SPY -0.2%, TLT +0.7% premarket. (full report) Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, June 4, 4:49 PM More Gundlach (previous): "If we put another 60 bps onto yields in the month of June like we almost did in May, I think there is no way you would see markets continue to digest it in a calm fashion," he says, making the case for Treasurys (TLT, TBT). Somewhere in the area of 2.35% on the 10-year (2.13% now) would force the Fed's hand and you might even see expanded QE. Comment!
Tuesday, June 4, 12:31 PM "Current conditions represent a buying opportunity for bonds (TLT, LQD) says Jeff Gundlach, appearing on CNBC. Higher interest rates will prove too damaging to certain sectors and he expects the 10-year Treasury - currently at 2.13% - to head back below 2% into the summer and fall. Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ)? In the mid-12s, it's a buying opportunity. Apple (AAPL)? He was a buyer in the low $400s and $500 is a chip shot, but it may never see $700. Chipotle (CMG)? He never got filled on his short at $380, but would give it a shot again. 9 Comments
Monday, June 3, 8:47 AM Did Apple's (AAPL) mammoth $17B bond sale mark the top for bonds? Ten-year Treasury yields bottomed for the year at about 1.62% right at the time of the offering and have gone vertical since (currently at 2.16%). A back-of-the-envelope calculation finds the company pocketing $724M in savings over the life of the paper by borrowing at the end of April vs. the end of May. TLT -7.6%, LQD -3.7% during May. 3 Comments
Monday, June 3, 7:33 AM For how many years have markets had to wake up and check Greek or Spanish or Italian bond yields? For the last few sessions at least, U.S. Treasury yields have returned to their paramount importance. After retreating amid the rout in stocks Friday afternoon, the 10-year is on the march higher again, up 5 bps to 2.17%. The TLT lost 7.6% during May. TBT +1.3% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 31, 4:16 PM It looks like Treasury yields finally got high enough to trigger a big rotation out of stocks and into fixed-income. Something seemed to snap when the 10-year rose to 2.20% this afternoon - the resulting action saw money pour out of equities (SPY -1.4%) and into Treasurys (TLT -0.3%), with the 10-year yield falling back to close at 2.14%. 9 Comments

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