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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

5/21/2013, 4:34 PM ET

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Monday, May 20, 9:47 AM UBS' 5 "suspected" asset bubbles: 1) Risk-free rates - specifically Treasurys (TLT), Bunds (BUND, BUNL), JGBs (JGBL, JGBT, JGBD, JGBS) 2) Credit (HYG, JNK) 3) Real estate in Asia (WPS) 4) Certain EM equity markets (EIDO, IDXJ, EPHE, THD, EWW) 5) Australian banks (WBK, NABZY.PK, ANZBY.PK, CMWAY.PK). Comment!
Friday, May 17, 10:35 AM Stocks add to gains (SPY +0.6%) as the mid-May UMich Consumer Sentiment read rises to 83.7 vs. 76.4 at the end of April and against expectations for 78. The current conditions index jumped 7.6 points to 97.5 - a new high for the economic recovery. Treasurys (TLT -0.7%) slide further. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 16, 8:38 AM SPY -0.3% premarket, giving up small early gains after a big jump in jobless claims and a rather shocking decline in housing starts. Starts were off 16.5% from March, but up 13.1% Y/Y. On a more hopeful note, building permits were up 14.3% from March, up 35.8% Y/Y. Treasurys catch a bid, TLT +0.5% premarket. Homebuilders ETF: XHB -0.2%. Comment!
Wednesday, May 15, 3:40 PM More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? 15 Comments [Tech]
Monday, May 13, 8:50 AM Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 10, 10:35 AM Bill Gross (BOND) attempts to ring a bell, calling the 30-year bond bull market over as of April 29, 2013 (while pushing Pimco as the one to help navigate in this new world). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 2.8% at April's end. Including a 9 bp pop today, the yield now stands at 3.08%. TLT -1%, TBT +1.9%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 1:47 PM Massive doesn't begin to describe the move into the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST) last Wednesday as the $12M AUM fund went to $833M overnight. It was accompanied by a 53% increase in the $3.75B iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), suggesting someone (or ones) making a large bet targeting the middle of the Treasury curve. The moves came following FOMC minutes at which it indicated a readiness to increase QE as needed. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 6:23 AM "Today government bonds should come with a warning about interest rate risk," a university fund manager tells FT, which says many university endowments have slashed their U.S. Treasury (TLT, TBT) holdings from as high as 30% of AUM during the crisis to as low as zero currently ("everyone" has less than 5%, one manager claims). Holding fast to larger allocations may require a fleetness of foot going forward in order to avoid capital losses if (or when) rates rise, a style of investing not suited to endowment managers. 1 Comment
Wednesday, May 8, 12:29 PM "There is no safe haven in today's markets," says Paul Singer, speaking at the Ira Sohn conference, and blaming the distorting effects of QE. While not yet advocating shorting Treasurys (TLT, TBT), Singer says those long need to know they're trading at the wrong price, perhaps 50-100 basis points too low. 1 Comment [Breaking News, U.S. Economy]
Monday, May 6, 3:29 PM This time is different for Treasurys (TLT, TBT)? "The Fed has been very transparent and their transparency should help offset the risks that were experienced in 1994," says JPMorgan's head of rates Edward Fitzpatrick. He's joined in this opinion by others who ought to know better, including Templeton's Michael Materasso and Vanguard's Gemma Wright-Casparius, all of whom attribute the 1994 rout to communication, not a crazed buildup in leverage. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, May 6, 7:47 AM More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." 15 Comments
Friday, May 3, 3:13 PM "Bonds are acting like the bond market is manipulated ... because it is," says Jeff Gundlach, as QE is far more of a put on Treasury prices (TLT -2.3%) than it is on stocks. A salve to bond bulls on a day when the yield on the 30-year is 14 bps higher, Gundlach says yields won't go on a sustained rise anytime soon because QE is going nowhere. A favorite of the bond bears, TBT +4.6%. 7 Comments
Friday, May 3, 8:43 AM Stock futures pop after the big NFP beat, SPY +0.8%, QQQ +0.7% premarket. The long bond dives, now down nearly a full point, TLT -1.2% premarket. Sporting losses earlier, the dollar moves into the green, UUP +0.4%. Nicely higher minutes ago, GLD -0.4%. Comment!
Thursday, May 2, 8:36 AM More on the big drop in jobless claims: At 324K, it's the lowest level since January 2008. The 4-week moving average fell 16K to 342,250. S&P 500 futures remain +0.5%. Treasury prices slip, TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2% premarket. 18 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, May 1, 8:28 AM More on the ADP jobs miss: In addition to April coming up 36K short, March was revised down to 131K from 158K. S&P 500 futures remain flat. Treasurys (TLT) erase their sizable early losses, and are now up a hair. (full report) 17 Comments [U.S. Economy]

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