ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT)
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- General Discussion on TBT
- Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
- Double Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
- Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
- Treasury Bonds: The Short of the Century [view article]
- In a Vulnerable Bond Market, Two ProShares ETFs To Consider [view article]
- ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08 [view article]
- ProShares UltraShort and UltraLong ETFs [view article]
- ProShares ETFs: Why Volume Trading Makes a Difference [view article]
- Looking for an Inflation Linked Parking Spot [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Resumed Stability? [view article]
- ETF Watch: New Listings (April 25 - May 6) [view article]
- ProShares First to Market with Inverse Bond ETF [view article]
loading ...Recent TBT Articles
- Double Short ProShares ETFs
- How About This for a Hedge Combo: TBT and TLT
- Searching for the Best Bond ETF
- Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit
- In a Vulnerable Bond Market, Two ProShares ETFs To Consider
- ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08
- ProShares UltraShort and UltraLong ETFs
- Looking for an Inflation Linked Parking Spot
- ProShares ETFs: Why Volume Trading Makes a Difference
- Thursday Outlook: Post-Fed Wipeout
- Full List of Articles »
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Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
TBT and PST are also options... ReplyDouble Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
johnthebear-go to etfconnect.com, type in the symbol of the double short ETF that you'd like to know about, and you'll get an analysis of ETF as well as links to the ETF website which will in turn lead you to the annual report which will explain the mechanics. good luck ReplyDouble Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
CAN ANYONE EXPLAIN HOW THE DOUBLE SHORT ETF BY PROSHARES WORKS? IS IT SAFE? I OWN FXP AND SRS, BUT IT KIND OF SCARES ME.PLEASE HELP ME OUT HERE. Reply
Double Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
What is the critical volume level to produce an acceptable bid/ask differential in double short? Also, does anyone know what vehicle is used to mimick SKF action? Replyingham
Double Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
When reading the report, I ask "do EEV and FXP have more to run?EEV is up 7.6% and FXP is up 2.1% from 7/15/2008 (but from the charts, it sure looks like a lot more); and SKF is down 35.0% from the beginning of the US Dollar, $USD, Rally when those invested via the yen carry trade sold oil and commodities and went long the financial sector and US based consumer and housing stocks.
The well springs of liquidity have been turned off for traditional investing long the markets as Peak Currencies turned the EUR/JPY down on July 25, 2008 and Peak Dollar turned the USD/JPY down on August 15, 2008.
The chart of EEV shows that disinvestment began to come out the emerging markets on May 19, 2008, when the TAF, TSLF and PDCF rally ended, and then again on June 23, 2008 as those with access to the 0.5% Bank of Japan loans sold out of the BRICS, EEB, to take profits and repay their loans.
Then on July 25, 2008, an Elliott Wave 3 Down commenced in the EUR/JPY, this blasted EEV much higher.
Note that 80 was the middle of an Elliot Wave 3 mid point rest for EEV; and now we had Elliott Wave 5 completion with the abandoned baby candlestick.
The weekly chart of EEV shows a gravestone doji on falling volume; with 50% gain from May 19, 2008.
The weekly chart of EEM shows a fall to suppor at the edge of a head and shoulders pattern.
The weekly chart of FXP shows a gravestone doji as well; with 50% gain from May 19, 2008.
It was lack of liquidity coming from failed TAF, TSLF, and PDCF that started both 50% higher.
So we have completion of current activity for EEV; the question is what is next?
Part of the answer comes from knowing what the Euro, FXE, will be doing; the weekly chart of the Euro, FXE, shows it has fallen to support at 148.
Eventually there is more disinvestment coming out of the emerging markets, EEM, and China, FXI as the yen carry trade EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, continues to unwind on risk aversion to inflation, lack of growth, and debt at banks.
The weekly chart of EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, shows that the yen carry trade invigorate investment in the BRICS, EEB, and the emerging markets EEM, up until May 19th.
And there is still plent of stored up yen carry trades left in EEB, that is for sure; it's just a matter of "when is it coming out?"
The fall in the weekly chart of EUR/JPY, FXE:FXY, explains the tremendous disinvestment that has come out of the commodity stocks such as the metal and manufacturing stocks, XME, and the gold mining stocks, that is the HUI Indexed precious metal mining stocks, GDX.
Since July 15, 2008, the US has been the destination of interest rate differential investing as those with access to Bank of Japan funds went long went long the financial sector, IYF, Russell 2000 value, IWN, Housing, XHB, Nasdaq, QQQQ, and Consumer, IYC, stocks.
I fully expect the USD/JPY to fall this next week and the destruction of the US Dollar, $USD, to commence as well as a run on the US Treasury Bonds, TLT, to recommence: the Dollar Rally stocks will fall greatly rewarding those who are short the financial sector via SKF and short the Dollar by investing in gold, $GOLD.
I recommend that one be invested 2/3 in gold at BullionVault and GoldMoney; and 1/3 in SKF in a trust account and not a brokerage account. Reply
Double Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
Interesting that ProShares has so many "Ultra" short ETFs for "Double Short" exposure, yet so few "conventional short" or one-to-one inverse ETFs. ReplyDouble Short ProShares ETFs [view article]
SDP has been great for me, closed out at 62.50 for 20% gain. Wall Street was just too optimistic on ultilites for so long, with labor/commodities hitting costs, interest rate uncertainty etc. seemed like a good bet. Use tight limit stops based on chart and fundamental analysis to trade these in my brokerage account. They also surprise you with a dividend now and then too which offsets trading costs.You are right, be cautious, but money to be made for sure!
Currently long a lot of QID, some MZZ and small SDS position. Once market turns looking to sell these into an SSO long position.
Until the worst is over, NASD 100 QQQQ and Midcap 400's are just too optimistic for my tastes with U/E rising, gas still at $3.71/gal and home values declining.
Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
When writing a financial piece, make it a principle to avoid misspelling the word principal throughout the piece-- if you wish to be taken seriously. ReplySearching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
excellent article and information, very educational and useful, thank youinflation, of course, is a more than valid concern re return – but assuming inflation will remain a problem forever is like assuming the stock market will rise or fall forever also
in a deflationary environment, which I believe is more an issue than most people do I think, these type funds of these type interest paying treasuries have been and would be in demand
the belief in perpetual inflation is useful for someone wanting or trying to create monetary dilution, keeping everyone focussed on spending and accepting inflation as normal
at my age, and thus for all practical purposes, this may be true :-) however, I tend to believe that deflation alternates w/inflation in our current fiat environment (and may well have under the various gold standards, I’m not sure)
thus, re the treasuries value, I think, like most everything else, they’ll vary over time
and gold is great, literally; but I tend to prefer it for insurance at this point, over any increase in value; the insurance being storage of value
and toilet paper (as per the commentator above), well, I try not to be out of it :-)
info re international treasury etf's would be interesting, esp if they were for countries w/as close a risk base to that of the u.s. as could be found
Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
It would also help the credibility of the article and the author if the tickers referred to the correct ETFs. Pretty shallow analysis with a lot of padding.Also, where are the international treasury & international treasury inflation-linked ETFs? Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
"Less clear of course is what specifically it will cost an investor to own a piece of this vast market and what that debt is worth in terms of some other asset (such as euro debt or gold)..."Or, say, the goods and services you typically buy - rent, food, fuel, electricity, water, clothing, etc. The bond market is obsessed with the "quality" of Treasuries - the certainty, as you point out, that there is no default risk. So what? If you hold an Argentine bond and the Kirchners default on it, how much bread can you buy with the total coupon + principal payments you received? If you hold a Treasury bond paying 4% while prices are rising 12%, how much bread can you buy with that? What if that 12% becomes 20%? That's all that matters: purchasing power. The certainty that you'll get your $1000 back 30 years from now is irrelevant. What will it be worth?
The market has forced real interest rates on even very long-duration debt deeply into negative territory. It's hard to imagine being sufficiently bearish on the world economy that one would be willing to eat 7% a year in lost coupon purchasing power and the substantial risk of capital loss just to avoid finding something better to do with the money. Buying toilet paper would be a better choice; you'll always need it and it isn't getting cheaper.
Long PST and TBT. Long gold. Other short Treasury positions. Reply
Treasury Bonds: The Short of the Century [view article]
The discussion is missing the key point of this "short of the century". The Fed can control the fed fund rate, but it cannot control the yield of the US treasury, which is determined by the market. The US treasury rate is further driven by the short-term rate which is FF and the inflation expectation of the market. Thus even if Fed does not raise FF - which translates to higher forecast for future inflation i.e. the residual effect of expansive monetary policy, the long rate will go higher. On the other hand if Fed raise FF rate then long rate will also go higher as well, however the spread between short and long rate might flatten. So which point is not made clear? The long rate for the UST has no way to go but ... where? Safe for a financial crisis again emerging in the near future, which might happen too, you can never say never with this financial climate, however the Fed is determined to save the financial institutions (and the system) so any flight to quality will be relatively short lived. Full disclosure - I am short the UST. ReplyPrepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loaded up their books with subprime mortgages in 2005-2007"I don't believe this is true at all. There were stricts limits on the types of mortgages that FNM/FRE could buy and they would not be considered subprime at all. Thus I am leary that the point you make on this is true let alone valid. Reply
Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
It doesn´t make sense to invest in US-$. But it makes a lot of sense to leverage investments in almost any part of the world with US-$ debt. Are the USA the next Japan (many years with ultra-low interest)? That´s very likely.Which currencies to buy (leveraged): China, €, Russia, Mexico ....... Reply
It
In a Vulnerable Bond Market, Two ProShares ETFs To Consider [view article]
If there is a global slow down won't this make it harder for the FED to raise rates keeping bond prices where they are? Reply