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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT)

- NYSEARCA
  • Thu, Feb. 12, 10:01 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield drops to 1.98% from 2.04% after January retail sales missed expectations - both on the headline print (-0.8% vs. -0.4% expected) and ex-autos/gas (-0.2% vs. +0.4% expected). Excluding just autos, sales fell 0.9% vs. expectations for a 0.5% decline.
    • The -0.8% decline in overall retail sales follows a 0.9% decline in December, maybe suggesting consumers - for now - are choosing to pocket some of their savings from lower gasoline and heating oil prices.
    • TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
    | 12 Comments
  • Fri, Feb. 6, 8:36 AM
    | 49 Comments
  • Wed, Feb. 4, 8:38 AM
    • "Businesses  in the energy and supplying industries are already scaling back payrolls in reaction to the collapse in oil prices, while industries benefiting from the lower prices have been slower to increase their hiring," says Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi, as the ADP reports a roughly inline 213K job gain in January (expectations were for 223K).
    • December's gain was upwardly revised to 253K from 241K.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has popped to 1.83% - up four basis points on the session - from 1.77% just ahead of the 8:15 ET print.
    • TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
    • Previously: ADP Jobs Report (Feb. 4)
    | 6 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 9:28 AM
    • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumps seven basis points higher to 1.71%, with much of the action coming after Apple's move to raise $5B in the debt markets. Portfolio managers interested in buying the Apple paper will tend to make room by exiting some of their easiest-to-sell holdings.
    • This isn't your daddy's Treasury market - once renowned for its vast liquidity pool, today's Treasury market is far more easily moved than in the past. By JPMorgan's reckoning, it takes just an $80M trade to move prices vs. $280M only a year ago.
    • TLT -1.4%, TBT +2.8% premarket
    • Previously: Apple plans $5B debt offering (Feb. 2)
    | 5 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 30, 8:36 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has ducked under 1.70% for the first time in nearly two years following the softer-than-hoped preliminary read on GDP growth (2.6% vs. 5% in Q3, and forecasts for 3%). It's now off six basis points to 1.69%.
    • In Germany, 30-year government paper now carries a yield of less than 1% for the first time ever. The 10-year Bund is at 0.30%.
    • TLT +1%, TBT -2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, BUNL, GGOV, BUNT
    | 3 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 28, 2:21 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield sinks all the way to 1.75% following the FOMC statement which shows the central bank continuing on a path to rate hikes around mid-year. TLT +0.95%, TBT -1.9%
    • Yields at the short end aren't moving a lot and continue to price in a 25 basis point hike by the fall.
    • Stocks remain modestly higher, but financials (XLF -0.6%) - contemplating an even flatter yield curve - continue to underperform. KBE -1.1%, KRE -1.2%
    | Comment!
  • Tue, Jan. 27, 9:01 AM
    • Morgan Stanley has pushed back the timing of its expected first Fed rate hike to March 2016, reports Bloomberg.
    • Earlier, the Caterpillar CEO - after his company dour 2015 forecast - urged the Fed to hold off this year, and over the weekend Felix Zulauf suggested disappointing economic growth will force the Fed to postpone tighter policy this year, and maybe the next.
    • Meanwhile, Fed members from all sides of the dove/hawk split continue to promise a mid-year rate hike. The FOMC begins a 2-day meeting today.
    • Earlier: Durable goods orders for December missed estimates by a mile
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by six basis points to 1.77%.
    • TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
    | 14 Comments
  • Sat, Jan. 24, 8:26 AM
    • "I don’t see how the Fed can justify hiking rates when economic growth will disappoint, employment growth will fade, and inflation will overshoot on the downside," says Felix Zulauf at the Barron''s Roundtable. He wouldn't be shocked to see 2016 also pass by without tighter policy.
    • The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) is the largest position in his portfolio (the 30-year yield was 2.53% when the Roundtable took place earlier this month; it's 2.37% today). "The U.S. bond market is mispriced," he says, noting long-term yields on these shores tower over those in Europe (they tower far more after the ECB's QE this week).
    • Zulauf is also bullish on the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) - not exactly a contrarian view - but he says most don't understand the real reason for the greenback's strength: Basically the world is massively short greenbacks thanks to dollar weakness policies pursued by the Greenspan and Bernanke Feds. When the dollar corrects later this year on realization the Fed won't be lifting rates, it will be a good spot to get long.
    • Expecting a correction in U.S. stocks, Zulauf would then put money to work in the Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:RTH) - a strong dollar allows retailers to benefit by buying their overseas supplies cheaper.
    • Related ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, UUP, UDN, UUPT, FORX, UDNT, USDU
    | 72 Comments
  • Thu, Jan. 22, 8:52 AM
    | 6 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 16, 1:00 PM
    | 3 Comments
  • Thu, Jan. 15, 3:55 PM
    • Into the close of equity action, the 10-year Treasury yield is making new multi-year lows - down 12 basis points to 1.74% - and the long bond is making a new all-time low of 2.39.
    • The move comes as the SNB earlier abandoned its CHF 1.20 floor for euro/franc -causing plenty of volatility, a 14% surge in the franc, but not really any blowups (for now).
    • The U.S. stock averages are modestly lower, but the big financial names continue to be punished amid lame earnings and a low interest rate environment that's not going anywhere. Europe closed sharply higher as it mulls a weaker currency and what must surely be a big QE announcement coming from the ECB next week.
    • TLT +1.5% on the session and +7% YTD. TBT -3% today.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, VGLT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, UBT, TLO, VGIT, TBX, GSY, SCHR, TENZ, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITE, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | 10 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 14, 8:40 AM
    • Retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.9% in December. Stripping out autos and gas, they fell 0.3% vs. forecasts for a 0.5% gain.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield falls a full nine basis points to 1.81% and the 30-year yield is off eight basis points to 2.42%
    • TLT +1.4%, TBT -2.8%.
    • S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA), and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) futures are now all lower by more than 1%.
    • One wonders if the Fed today is going to trot out another moderate/dove to promise rate hikes this year.
    • Previously: Retail sales tumble in December (Jan. 14)
    | 17 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 13, 8:33 AM
    • As oil cracks below $45 per barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield falls another three basis points to 1.88%, and the 30-year two basis points to 2.47%. Thus far, stocks in Europe and U.S. index futures are in the green for the session, or we'd be talking about a more serious rally in Treasurys.
    • TLT +0.55%, TBT -1.1% premarket
    • When bond bulls turn bear: Gluskin Shelf's David Rosenberg isn't having any of this deflation talk, and instead says the slide in yields reflects, "non-sensitive entities globally dominating the buying activity."
    • German 10-years are at 0.46%, Italy 1.77%, Spain 1.61%.
    | Comment!
  • Tue, Jan. 13, 4:17 AM
    | Comment!
  • Mon, Jan. 12, 3:55 PM
    • Head of fixed-income research at HSBC, Steven Major one year ago correctly predicted the 10-year yield would fall to 2.1%, while  many of his peers were guessing something closer to 4%.
    • With the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey showing yields rising to 3% by year-end, Major sees the 10-year falling all the way to 1.5% before turning back up to end the year.
    • Dismissing any concern over the Fed, Major sees parallels between now and the global economy after WWII, when slow growth pinned yields below 2.5%. Another parallel: Governments today are saddled with debt the way they were back then.
    • So far this year, Major is looking golden again, with the 10-year yield falling all the way to 1.90% today.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
    | 2 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 9, 11:56 AM
    • A quick $2 per barrel dive in the price of oil is hitting the major averages, with the Dow's (DIA -1%) decline the largest in percentage terms. WTI crude is lower by 3% to $47.30 per barrel. USO -2.7%
    • The move in stocks and oil has put a strong bid under Treasurys, with the 10-year yield now lower by a full eight basis points to 1.94%. TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN) is enjoying a volatile session - up sharply following the strong headlines out of December's nonfarm payrolls number, but now moderately lower on the day.
    | 8 Comments
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TBT Description
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
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Country: United States
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