Q3 2009 Earnings Call

October 21, 2009 11:00 am ET

Bullish Calls:

NVIDIA (NVDA): "The stock is only down a dollar from where we recommended it and I want to buy more… NVIDIA is at the cusp of a major new cycle… people tell me that the chart is bad… oh please… it is one of the few semis that is still not expensive… let’s do some buy, buy, buy."

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) – Shares of the largest drugstore chain in the U.S. rose 3% during the session to $35.88. Perhaps the bullish move in the stock was partially fueled by Walgreen’s positive fourth-quarter earnings news. News this morning also revealed CVS aims to expand its partnership with Microsoft HealthVault to CVS Pharmacy clients. Apparently, the partnership will allow CVS Pharmacy users to download prescription histories in order to obtain Microsoft HealthVault records. We noticed heavy call volume at the October 36 strike, and initially assumed the contracts must have been bought by bullish investors. However, upon further inspection, the calls appear to have been sold nearly 12,000 times for an average premium of 80 cents apiece. Perhaps the short calls are held by an investor holding a long position in the stock. If this is the case, the trader is covered in the event that shares of CVS continue through $36.00 by expiration. We note that earlier in the trading session the calls were in-the-money briefly when shares of CVS traded 3.5% higher to $36.12.

The Top 25 publicly traded U.S. banks and thrifts were published by the ABA Bank Journal in May this year. These rankings were based on data as of December 31, 2008 and covers banks with assets over $3 Billion. Other criteria used to select the top performers are Return on Average Total Equity (ROAE) and Return on Average Total Assets (ROAA).

The following table lists these top banks with their current dividend yields, year-to-date change and the ratio of non-interest income to total revenues:

Sentiment

Stocks are trading lower, as investor sentiment remains cautious heading into tomorrow's FOMC announcement. With the earnings calendar slowing down and a light economic calendar (productivity and wholesale inventories = yawn), there wasn't a lot of news to guide the market action Tuesday morning. Instead, focus seems to shifting to tomorrow's FOMC announcement and retail sales data on Thursday.

The financials are seeing relative weakness. CIT (CIT) is down 16.2 percent after delaying the release of its earnings report. BofA (BAC), GE (GE), JPMorgan (JPM), and Traveler's (TRV) are the biggest losers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, the weakness isn't limited to the financials. 359 S&P 500 stocks are lower. 133 trading higher.

• Bernanke defends Fed independence. Bernanke gave his semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives yesterday, and continues today with testimony to the Senate. Bernanke stressed the importance of central bank independence, warning against the dangers of too much political scrutiny of the Federal Reserve, and told lawmakers they should focus on cutting 'unsustainable' budget deficits. In terms of the economy, Bernanke pointed to 'notable improvements' in recent months, although financial markets 'remain stressed,' and downplayed the risk of inflation. Supportive policies will continue to be necessary to prevent rising unemployment from hurting a recovery. (Read Bernanke's testimony)
• Apple shines on profit beat. Apple (AAPL) reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings (see details below) as price cuts helped attract more first-time buyers for Macintosh computers. Mac sales rose 4% in the quarter, compared to an industrywide decline of 3.1%. iPhone sales beat estimates as well, increasing sevenfold to 5.2M units. iPod sales slipped, as executives noted "we expect our traditional MP3 players to decline over time as we cannibalize ourselves with the iPod Touch and the iPhone."
• China plans buying spree. China plans to use its foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, to speed overseas expansion and acquisitions by Chinese companies. Premier Wen Jiabao said the reserves should be used to "hasten the implementation of our ‘going out’ strategy," the first time an official has publicly articulated a policy of getting Chinese companies, particularly large state-owned industrial groups, to buy offshore assets.
• Reining in the credit raters. The Treasury released its plan to reform credit rating agencies, sending a draft bill to Congress where financial overhaul efforts are being slowed by growing doubts among lawmakers. The plan tries to limit conflicts of interest by preventing consultation between rating agencies and the companies they rate, and by requiring companies to disclose 'pre-ratings' to investors to limit companies' ratings shopping. The Treasury also wants to empower the SEC to set up a special office for overseeing rating agencies. (Read the Treasury's fact sheet)
• Now you C-it, now you don't. CIT Group (CIT) unveiled more of its restructuring plan that will significantly shrink the company's size, including the possible sale of its Utah bank, its rail-car and aircraft-leasing arm and its credit/cash-advance business. However, the company warned in an SEC filing that failure to complete any of the outlined steps could still land the lender in bankruptcy court. CIT received an expensive $3B emergency loan from bondholders but faces another $7B in debt coming due in the next year. In a further setback, some companies have already begun to cut ties with CIT, including Microsoft (MSFT), which terminated a vendor-financing agreement with CIT yesterday. (Read CIT's 8-K filing)
• P&G closes in on drug unit sale. Procter & Gamble (PG) is reportedly moving closer to the sale of its prescription-drug unit, and is in late-stage discussions with several firms, including specialty drug maker Warner Chilcott (WCRX) and Cerberus Capital Management. The unit could fetch around $3B. In a sign that acquisition financing may be easing, sources say Cerberus has already lined up preliminary financing from several Wall Street banks.
• Recession hurts Yahoo earnings. Yahoo (YHOO) reported quarterly earnings Tuesday evening (see details below), posting a 13% fall in overall revenue amid steep declines in both display ads and graphical ads. Cost-cutting allowed the company to post a year-on-year profit gain of 7.8%, which CFO Timothy Morse said was "not too bad in this type of environment," though he admitted the future looks cloudy as the recession exacerbates some long-standing Yahoo problems related to its search business and flagging brand. Separately, Yahoo is reportedly looking to sell HotJobs and Yahoo Small Business as part of its efforts to shed non-core assets.
• Exelon moves on. Exelon (EXC) dropped its $7.7B hostile bid to acquire NRG Energy (NRG) after shareholders rejected Exelon's slate of directors. The four directors nominated by NRG gained 75% approval. Exelon CEO John Rowe said "the NRG shareholders have spoken, and Exelon will move on."
• New Freddie CEO, again. Freddie Mac (FRE) confirmed Charles E. Haldeman Jr. will be the company's new chief executive, becoming Freddie's fourth CEO in less than a year.
• MBA apps rise. Mortgage applications rose 2.8% last week, MBA said. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 5.31% from 5.05%.
• Retail sales. Chain store sales fell 1.7% in the first two weeks of July, Redbook said, worse than the -0.9% expected. According to ICSC, weekly sales were up 0.5%, with the increase spread across most segments.
• Chicago Fed index still negative. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was -1.8 in June, vs. -2.3 in May and -2.27 in April. All four broad categories of indicators continued to make negative contributions to the index, with employment and housing-related indicators leading the laggards.
• Consumer confidence. ABC's Consumer Confidence Poll came in at -50, up from last week's -51 but on its fifth week at -50 or below. Just 22% of Americans say it's a good time to buy things.

Earnings: Wednesday Before Open

• Air Products & Chemicals (APD): FQ3 EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $2B (-28.1%) vs. $2.1B. (PR)
• AirTran (AAI): Q2 EPS of $0.34 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $604M (-12.9%) vs. $601M. (PR)
• Allegheny Technologies (ATI): Q2 EPS of $0.03 in-line. Revenue of $710M (-51.4%) vs. $817M. (PR)
• Altria Group (MO): Q2 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $6.7B (+32.9%) vs. $5.35B. (PR)
• Bank of New York (BK): Q2 EPS of $0.46 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $3.2B (-17.7%) vs. $3.3B. (PR)
• Boeing (BA): Q2 EPS of $1.41 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $17.15B (+1.1%) in-line. Shares +2.2% premarket (7:45 ET). (PR)
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): Q2 EPS of -$0.24 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $7B (+27.3%) in-line. (PR)
• Eli Lilly & (LLY): Q2 EPS of $1.12 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $5.3B (+0.8%) in-line. Raises FY '09 EPS guidance to $4.20-4.30 vs. $4.00-4.25 previous guidance. (PR)
• Entegris (ENTG): Q2 EPS of -$0.20 in-line. Revenue of $83M (-44.2%) vs. $74M. (PR)
• Gentex (GNTX): Q2 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $117M (-31.2%) vs. $115M. (PR)
• Host Hotels & Resorts (HST): Q2 FFO of $0.27 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.1B (-23.3%) in-line. (PR)
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Q2 EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $3.4B (-25.5%) in-line. (PR)
• KeyCorp (KEY): Q2 EPS of -$0.69 vs. consensus of $0.41 (may not be comparable). Loss largely stems from increase in loan loss provisions, which rose to $2.5B (3.53% of total loans) in Q2 vs. $1.4B (1.87% of total loans) in the year-ago period. (PR)
• Knight Capital Group (NITE): Q2 EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $314M (+65.4%) vs. $259M. (PR)
• Morgan Stanley (MS): Q2 EPS of -$1.37 misses by $0.88. Revenue of $5.4B (-11.3%) in-line. Shares -4.9% premarket (8:20 ET). (PR)
• Northern Trust (NTRS): Q2 EPS of $0.95 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $1B (-4.5%) in-line. (PR)
• PepsiCo (PEP): Q2 EPS of $1.06 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $10.6B (-3.2%) vs. $11B. (PR)
• Pfizer (PFE): Q2 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $11B (-9.4%) in-line. (PR)
• SEI Investments (SEIC): Q2 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $252M (-23.5%) vs. $250M. (PR)
• St. Jude Medical (STJ): Q2 EPS of $0.63 in-line. Revenue of $1.2B (+4.2%) in-line. (PR)
• Suncor Energy (SU): Q2 EPS of C$0.20 misses by C$0.13. Cash flow from operations C$342M vs. C$1.4B in Q2 2008. (PR)
• SunTrust Banks (STI): Q2 EPS of -$0.41 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $2.2B (-15.6%) in-line. (PR)
• TCF Financial (TCB): Q2 EPS of $0.08 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $297M (+8.3%) vs. $264M. (PR)
• US Bancorp (USB): Q2 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $4.2B (+7.1%) vs. $4B. (PR)
• USG (USG): Q2 EPS of -$0.41 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $829M (-33.7%) vs. $956M. Shares -5.9% premarket (8:45 ET). (PR)
• Wells Fargo (WFC): Q2 EPS of $0.57 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $22.5B (+28%) vs. $20.5B. Shares -7.1% premarket (8:20 ET). (Wells Fargo News Release (.pdf))
• Whirlpool (WHR): Q2 EPS of $1.04 beats by $0.53. Revenue of $4.2B (-17.9%) in-line. (PR)

Earnings: Tuesday After Close

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Q2 EPS of -$0.62 misses by $0.15. Revenue of $1.18B (-13.1%) vs. $1.13B. Gross margin was 37%, down from 43% in Q1. "While we increased cash, exceeded our revenue plan and reduced operating expenses in the second quarter, gross margin was disappointing." (PR)

On January 2nd of this year, Stifel Nicolaus released a list of top U.S. bank choices for this year based on its research.

The top bank choices were:

Many of the ten big banks repaid their TARP preferred stock loans on Wednesday, June 17, 2009. This means that they can begin negotiations to repurchase the warrants that they issued to taxpayers. I estimate that the warrants issued by those banks are worth $4.2 billion. That is over one third of the value of the taxpayers' warrants. Yet, if history is any guide, we taxpayers could expect to get 50 cents or less on the dollar. My hope is that the U.S. Treasury will take a hard line in these negotiations and take steps to create markets in the TARP warrants. The best prices will come from taxpayers selling their warrants to third party investors.

One of the problems that plagues the valuation of the TARP warrants is the cancellation provisions. Apparently, to encourage banks to raise equity on their own, the purchase agreements for the TARP capital infusions say that half the taxpayers’ warrants will be cancelled if the bank issues equity in the amount of the U.S. Treasury's investment. Recent valuations by Credit Suisse and Bloomberg have assumed a zero chance of cancellation. These studies systematically overvalue the taxpayer's warrants for this reason. Moreover, they most overvalue the banks which are the most likely to cancel half the TARP warrants. Of the 10 big banks due to pay back TARP yesterday, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) have such high share prices and have already issued so much equity that they have a 90 and 80 percent chance respectively of issuing enough equity to cancel half the taxpayer’s warrants by year end, according to my estimates. That means that both Bloomberg and Credit Suisse are overvaluing the taxpayers’ warrants in these companies by 45 to 40 percent, if you believe their estimates of volatility and dividend yield.

Numerous sources say that low quality stocks have led the recent US stock market rally. While that may be true in terms of percent change in price, looking at the question from the perspective of the slope of the primary trend, we draw a somewhat different conclusion about what’s doing well.

Review Method:

On Monday, May 11, 2009, with little fanfare, Old National Bank (ONB) became the first publicly traded bank to pay back the TARP’s Capital Purchase Program warrants. Warrants are call options that create new shares of stock when exercised. Privately held banks like Centra Bank, which repurchased its warrants before Old National Bank, signed an agreement to repurchase their warrants at 5 percent of the par value of the U.S. Treasury’s investment. Publicly traded banks, according to the terms of their TARP investment, can either negotiate to repurchase the warrants at “fair market value” or let the U.S. Treasury sell the warrants to third party investors. Thus, the Old National Bank transaction is the first example we have of the U.S. Treasury’s (in)ability to negotiate the fair market value of the TARP warrants.

My analysis suggests that the U.S. Treasury accepted a lowball offer. My paper “Valuing the First Negotiated Repurchase of the TARP Warrants” estimates that the fair market value of these warrants should have been between $1.5 million and $6.9 million. It is too bad that the U.S. Treasury agreed that they were worth only $1.2 million. That is, the U.S. taxpayers only got 71 percent less than the median of my lowest and highest estimates, $4.2 million, and $.3 million or 20 percent less than my lowest estimate. These results indicate that the management at Old National Bank represented their shareholders well. I am not sure that the U.S. Treasury represented taxpayers quite so well.

Since last fall, when the financial bailouts began, the government has injected about $250 billion into hundreds of banks, whether they're faltering or not. The original Troubled Assets Relief Program flooded all banks of significant size with money to prevent bank runs, prop up lending, and convince consumers and investors that the entire banking sector is safe.

Since then, the TARP mission has changed. Regulators, politicians, and taxpayers all want to know which banks are healthy and able to pay back their taxpayer funds and which are sick and likely to need more. The Obama administration's "stress tests" of the 19 biggest banks are one effort to figure out which banks can stand on their own and which are likely to need more government aid.

Q1 2009 Earnings Call

April 23, 2009 11:00 AM ET

With Congress back in session today, be on the lookout or the House Financial Services Committee to schedule a mark-up of Rep. Maloney's Consumer Overdraft Protection Fair Practices Act (H.R. 1456). The bill is nearly identical to the version of the bill Rep. Maloney introduced in 2007, but with much better chances for passage as the bank industry's political fortunes have waned.

The bill primarily mandates better disclosure of overdraft fees, but the element that poses the greatest risk to bank revenues regards debit transactions. Essentially, banks would be required to give customers a notice - similar to the one that pops up when you make a foreign ATM withdrawal - that a pending transaction would trigger an overdraft fee, and give customers the opportunity to cancel the transaction. Cancellations would likely be quite high at debit/POS terminals, since the average transaction size is less than the average overdraft fee.

Bullish Calls:

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Xilinx (XLNX)

The bank stock index, BKX, is down 75% since hitting 121.06 on 02/20/2007 and the volatility has ranged between 50-250% since the credit spreads blew up in summer of 2007. Bank stocks are behaving more like options with exceptional levels of volatility reflecting everyday market sentiment, making a difficult case for longer term investment. In the next 3-5 years, increased regulatory oversight could result in lower financial leverage, increased capital requirements and scrutiny of asset quality, and consequently lower sustainable earnings level.

The Fed's ZIRP will help some banks earn their way out of the down cycle and some other banks, such as WFC and PNC, could benefit from tax assets from acquisitions, however, any bullish bet on banks would mainly hinge on the bottoming of the credit/ housing markets and a resolution for bad assets on bank balance sheets. If the past is any predictor (the RTC resolution trust took more than five years to dispose $458.5b of assets and cost around $160b to resolve), removing toxic assets from bank balance sheets will be a torturous, long exercise.

• 'Growing concern' about GM. General Motors' (GM) auditors raised 'substantial doubt' about the company's viability (see 10-K). The 'going concern' warning had been widely expected, but underscored just how desperate GM's situation has become and helped push shares down 15.45%. The disclosures were made in GM's delayed annual report and in a 25-page discussion of the growing risks facing the automaker. Although GM has stated repeatedly that bankruptcy is a non-option and could force a liquidation, sources say top execs are growing more open to the idea of a speedy government-financed bankruptcy reorganization.
• House okays mortgage cramdowns. The House of Representatives approved a mortgage 'cramdown' bankruptcy bill by a vote of 234-191. The legislation will allow at least 1M Americans to reduce their mortgage payments through bankruptcy, and enables federal bankruptcy judges to lengthen loan terms, cut interest rates and reduce mortgage balances. The bill, which will now go to the Senate, would also permanently increase the FDIC's coverage of bank deposits to $250,000.
• GE saga spirals. Trying to calm jittery investors, General Electric (GE) CFO Keith Sherin acknowledged a cut in the company's top-tier credit rating was possible but said there's no 'time bomb' in the company's finance arm and that he can't imagine GE's rating being cut beyond the double-A range. Sherin also said GE's capital unit will be profitable for Q1 and for the full year, and the company won't need fresh capital or government aid. After three days of sharp declines, Sherin's comments helped the stock level out to close at $6.66 (-0.45%), a 17-year low. Not everyone was reassured, however: credit-default swaps are now pricing in a 22.5% chance of GE going bankrupt within the next 12 months.
• Paying back TARP. Representative Barney Frank said U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Northern Trust (NTRS) will return TARP funds. Frank didn't specify a timeline but said Northern Trust will return $1.6B and U.S. Bancorp, which received $6.6B, will return $6B for now. Three smaller lenders - TCF Financial (TCB), Iberiabank (IBKC) and Sussex Bancorp (SBBX) - all decided in the last week to give back TARP money as well. As far as Frank is concerned, "it shows that things are beginning to stabilize. The more money that comes back in the Treasury, the better I like it."
• SEC hikes fees... The SEC announced that it is more than quadrupling the transaction fees it charges exchanges in response to plunging stock prices. Effective as of April, the SEC will charge $25.70 per $1M in securities sales, up from $5.60. The regulator said the spike is necessary for it to reach its targeted collection amount of $1.02 in FY 2009. John Giesea, president of the Securities Traders Association, said the increase was expected and would not be 'a shock to the system.'
• ...while FDIC may lower theirs. The FDIC may reduce an emergency fee on banks if Congress increases the agency's borrowing limit from the Treasury. Chairman Sheila Bair said the existing $30B credit line 'provides a thin margin of error' and asked that the line be increased to $100B. Bair's request follows a banking industry outcry over the increased fees, with many executives warning the one-time payment could significantly hurt 2009 earnings. The House of Representatives approved the $100B credit line yesterday, a move the Senate must vote on as well. Senator Chris Dodd plans to introduce a measure raising the credit limit to $100B permanently and to $500B through Dec. 31, 2010.
• More homeowner winners and losers. Homeowners with Fannie Mae (FNM) mortgages may receive less generous relief than those with Freddie Mac (FRE) mortgages. Under Obama's foreclosure relief plan, Freddie will eliminate the upfront fees it typically charges lenders based on consumers’ credit scores and home equity, while Fannie has left similar charges 'largely unchanged.' Fannie's decision to leaves its fees unchanged means borrowers face new rates 0.06%-0.81% higher than similar loans at Freddie. A Fannie spokeswoman said borrowers can 'shop around' to find a lower rate, as opposed to Freddie borrowers who can only work through Freddie.
• Yahoo eyes European search. Yahoo (YHOO) is reportedly in talks to make its mobile search product the default software on phones sold by Vodafone (VOD) in Europe. Trying hard to close the gap with Google (GOOG), Yahoo already has partnerships in Europe with wireless operators, and last year closed deal with T-Mobile USA (DT) and AT&T (T). Sources say Vodafone, whose distribution deal with Google expires this year, is talking to other parties as well.
• Citi visits the dollar store. Citigroup (C) closed at $1.02 yesterday, but not before breaking the $1 mark during trading for the first time in its history. Shares fell as low as $0.97 during intraday trading, a far cry from the once-giant bank's $55.70 peak in late 2006. In the last year, Citi's shares have lost 85% of their value, and in the last two years Citi's market cap has eroded to a little over $5.4B from over $270B.
• Brown wants global code on banking, tax havens. U.K.'s Gordon Brown has big plans for an economic summit in London on April 2. Convinced he can get the U.S. and G-20 to sign up to a package of ambitious financial reforms, Gordon plans to propose a global code on executive pay and bonuses in the banking sector in an effort to eliminate 'short-term' incentives he believes drove the current crisis. Brown is also expected to push for new international standards on offshore taxes and regulatory havens.
• Retail sales pick up. Retail sales posted a monthly gain for the first time since September as Americans cautiously began spending again in February. Wal-Mart (WMT) once again put in an excellent showing, posting its best sales performance in nine months (same-store sales +5.1% vs. +2.4% consensus). Luxury retailers, midpriced department stores and clothing chains are still struggling to attract shoppers, while consumers spend more on groceries, countertop appliances and cookware and head to discounters. Other discounters that reported strong gains were BJ's Wholesale (BJ) (same-store sales +11.5%) and Costco (COST) (same-store sales +4%).
• ECB rate cut. The European Central Bank cuts its key rate by half a percentage point to 1.5%, as expected. ECB chief Trichet told reporters inflation will stay well below 2% through 2010. The ECB now expects the euro area to contract 2.2% to 3.2% in 2009, up from a previous range of 0% to -1%. All signs point to further rate cuts.
• Jobless claims drop. Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 639K from last week's 670K (revised), less than the 650K consensus. Continuing claims down 14K to 5,106,000.
• Productivity falls,... Revised Q4 productivity was -0.4%, down from February's estimate of +3.6%. On the year, non-farm productivity was unchanged at +2.8%.
• ...so do factory orders. January's factory orders -1.9% vs. -3.5% consensus, the sixth consecutive month of declines. Ex-transportation, orders -0.9%.

Earnings: Friday Before Open

• H&R Block (HRB): FQ3 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $993M (+11.0%) vs. $975M. (PR)

Earnings: Thursday After Close

• Intrepid Potash (IPI): Q4 EPS of $0.30 in-line. Revenue of $79.5M (+41.2%) vs. $77.7M. "The potash market will guide business decisions in 2009, specifically those related to production and capital allocation." Shares -2% AH. (PR)
• Marvell Technology Group (MRVL): Q4 EPS of $0.05 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $513M (-35.2%) in-line. Plans to reduce global workforce by 15% - 850 jobs. Shares +9.2% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

• Asia markets fell sharply Friday, although losses were more moderate than Thursday's U.S. selloff. Nikkei -3.5% to 7,173, a four-month low. Hang Seng -2.37% to 11,922. Shanghai -1.26% to 2,193. BSE +1.56% to 8,326.
• Europe stocks surrendered early gains to follow U.S. stocks lower. London -0.25%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
• Stock futures are flat-to-lower in cautious trade ahead of today's nonfarm payrolls data (calendar). Dow -0.5% at 6600. S&P -0.3% to 684. Nasdaq flat. Crude +2.2% at $44.60. Gold +1.2% to $939. 30-year bond +0.57% to 129-00.

Friday's Economic Calendar

• 8:30 Non-farm payrolls
  11:15 Fed's Dudley speaks to the Council on Foreign Relations
  12:00 PM Fed's Plosser speaks on the future role of government in finance
  3:00 PM Consumer Credit
• Notable earnings before Friday's open: ANN, HRB, TSTY

Seeking Alpha editor Eli Hoffmann contributed to this post.

As a bit of an experiment, I decided to examine insider activity at a large group of commercial banks. I appraised over 230 different commercial banks for this survey and gathered my list of banks off of Motley Fool's tagged “commercial banks”. I did not examine some of the banks with extremely small market caps and I only examined a handful of banks that were not on this list, so it is by no means exhaustive, but it is a fairly large sample that should provide some ideas and insight.

The goal of this survey is to classify insider activity at various commercial banks, take a closer examination at some of the banks that get emphasized, and track the results over time. This article is essentially “Part I” of this experiment and deals exclusively with categorization of the banks.

"TCF did not engage in the activities that have created so many problems in the financial industry,” said William A. Cooper, Chairman and CEO.