Tue, Sep. 22, 11:56 AM
- Teck Resources (TCK -9.2%) slumps to a 52-week low after Total's (TOT -2.8%) sale of its 10% stake in the Fort Hills oil sands project to Suncor (SU -1.3%) raises several questions for 20% stakeholder TCK.
- TCK's stake is valued at $620M, based on yesterday's deal, while TCK's net carrying value for the position at the end of June was $2.3B.
- But that does not mean a writedown is coming, TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes says, because TOT's sale was based on its desire to cut capital spending, not a valuation of the project.
- If TCK were to write down its Fort Hills stake, Barnes says the company's debt covenants would cause concern, causing its debt-to-capital ratio to tumble to 32% as of the end of June.
- Thus the odds of TCK selling its Fort Hills stake are "minimal," according to Barnes, while acknowledging the company's participation in the project will remain unpopular with investors in the current macro environment.
Tue, Sep. 22, 9:21 AM
Mon, Sep. 21, 12:58 PM
- Teck Resources (TCK -5.8%) is reiterated with an Outperform rating at FBR following Suncor Energy's (SU +1.2%) announced agreement to purchase an additional 10% interest in the Fort Hills oil sands project from Total (TOT -1.3%) for C$310M; TCK has a 20% interest in the project.
- FBR analyst Lucas Pipes values TCK's share at C$1.945B, with today's transaction "right in-line with our valuation when considering Suncor’s incremental capital increase."
- Pipes believes TCK’s interest in Fort Hills greatly reduces its overall risk profile, and is encouraged by SU’s continued commitment to the project; he also likes TCK for its low-cost exposure to met coal and zinc, two commodities he sees as "better positioned in the current market environment."
Mon, Sep. 21, 9:19 AM
- Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU) agrees to acquire an additional 10% working interest in the Fort Hills oil sands project in Alberta from Total (NYSE:TOT) for $310M, increasing its partnership share in the $15B project to 50.8%.
- As a result of the deal, SU's incremental capital increase to Fort Hills is estimated at just over $1B, of which ~$700M is remaining project spending.
- SU says project engineering is more than 90% complete and construction more than 40%, placing Fort Hills on track for first oil in Q4 2017.
- Following the purchase, TOT will own 29.2% of the project and Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) will continue to own the remainder.
Sat, Sep. 19, 8:25 AM
- Metal and mining stocks have been hit hard in recent months, but analysts at FBR Capital argue that there are still attractive names to own in the sector.
- Companies with exposure to the zinc and met coal markets look appealing, FBR says, as supply reductions could act as a positive catalyst for prices; Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) is the firm's top pick there, with Horsehead Holding (NASDAQ:ZINC) the favorite small-cap idea.
- The firm sees "no structural turnaround for domestic thermal coal," but thinks the rate of decline will begin to slow next year, justifying Outperform ratings on Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP) and Westmoreland Coal (NASDAQ:WLB); Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD) and Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) are rated Underperform.
- FBR is fairly upbeat on steel names, initiating SunCoke Energy (NYSE:SXC) and SunCoke Partners (NYSE:SXCP) at Outperform, as SunCoke’s long-lived coke assets are able to generate strong margins “in almost any U.S. steel environment"; Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) is rated Market Perform.
- The copper market will remain in surplus through 2017, FBR says, but it rates Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) at Outperform; Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is rated Market Perform.
- Among precious metals miners, the firm prefers Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD), the latter "a diversified company with a solid balance sheet and attractive acquisition opportunities."
Mon, Sep. 14, 3:42 PM
- Teck Resources' (TCK -2%) credit rating is downgraded to junk status by Moody’s, which assigns a new rating of Ba1, cut from Baa3; the outlook remains negative.
- Moody's says it expects prolonged commodity price weakness and sizable investment spending to cause TCK’s financial leverage to remain well in excess of typical investment-grade thresholds through at least 2017.
- The ratings agency expects steady but modest improvement in commodity prices beyond 2016, which should help TCK's cash flows to strengthen in 2017, but the company's significant spending on the Fort Hills oil sands development project at a time when commodity prices are weak however will cause cash consumption to total ~C$1.5B in 2016 and C$1B in 2017.
Fri, Sep. 4, 12:45 PM
Tue, Sep. 1, 12:19 PM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX -7.4%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with an $12 price target, lowered from $20, at Citigroup, which says the copper sector has not reduced production enough to account for falling prices.
- FCX has guided to strong cash flow of $6.3B for 2016, at $2.25/lb. copper and $54/bbl oil, but the guidance included considerable working capital drawdown, which Citi estimates at $1.8B while saying there is "very little incremental deleveraging opportunity."
- According to the Citi report, the best opportunity for FCX to improve its free cash flow is to eliminate or at least reduce its exposure to oil and gas.
- Global miners are having a rough time as weak China data batters stocks: BHP -6.7%, RIO -5.3%, VALE -3.5%, TCK -7.6%.
Fri, Aug. 28, 2:28 PM
- Alberta's new government launches its royalty review panel, and says it will not raise oil and gas royalty rates until the end of 2016.
- The specter of a higher government take is spooking the industry, especially with oil prices recently hitting more than six-year lows; some have argued the royalty review should be deferred until the outlook improves, while others would prefer to just get it over with.
- Related tickers: SU, ENB, IMO, TRP, CNQ, CVE, TCK, CEO, OTCPK:HUSKF, OTCQX:COSWF
Thu, Aug. 27, 9:17 AM
- Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) and Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) say they are forming a joint venture to combine and develop neighboring projects in Chile, in an effort to cut development costs as metal prices languish at multi-year lows.
- Based on a preliminary economic assessment, the JV plans a conveyor to transport ore from GG's El Morro gold and copper project to a single line mill at TCK's Relincho copper and molybdenum project.
- An initial capital cost target of $3.5B to bring the two projects into production compares to previous estimates of $3.9B for El Morro and $4.5B for Relincho.
- GG also agrees to acquire New Gold's (NYSEMKT:NGD) 30% interest in El Morro for $90M plus a 4% gold stream on future gold production from the property.
Tue, Aug. 25, 9:19 AM| Tue, Aug. 25, 9:19 AM | 7 Comments
Mon, Aug. 24, 9:19 AM
- Gainers: GAS +29%.
- Losers: VTL -79%. ACI -31%. BZUN -25%. WBAI -23%. JMEI -20%. BTU -17%. MDR -17%. CSIQ -17%. VIPS -16%. FIT -16%. SFUN -15%. LC -15%. PLUG -15%. EXXI -15%. QIHU -14%. MACK -14%. ACHN -14%. KNDI -13%. CYBR -13%. OHGI -13%. Z -13%. TCK -13%. JKS -13%. AVEO -12%. OAS -12%. WLL -12%. MCUR -12%.
Thu, Aug. 13, 12:45 PM
- A key pipeline for delivering Canadian oil to the U.S. remains shut for a third day, leaving heavy crude stranded in Alberta and keeping its price in the cash market at ~$20 below the WTI benchmark.
- A small leak near Shelbina, Mo., coming from Enbridge’s (ENB -1.1%) Spearhead pipeline, which runs from Flanagan, Ill., to the Cushing, Okla., crude hub forced the shutdown Tuesday of the 193.3K bbl/day pipeline as well as a closing of the parallel Flanagan South pipeline, an even larger 585K bbl/day line that runs from Pontiac, Ill., to Cushing.
- ENB expects operations at Flanagan South to resume today, but does not know when Spearhead may return to service, as it continues to investigate the cause of the spill in Missouri.
- Operational problems at BP's (BP -1.5%) Whiting, Ind., refinery also keep the pressure on prices for Canada’s heavy crude as barrels continue to get backed up.
- Other related tickers: SU, IMO, TRP, CNQ, CVE, TCK, CEO, OTCPK:HUSKF, OTCQX:COSWF
- Earlier: Canadian oil sands price nears $20/bbl, cut in half since July 1
Wed, Aug. 12, 12:27 PM
- Crude oil from Canada’s tar sands has slumped to $23/bbl, chopped in half since July 1 and widening its discount to West Texas Intermediate to nearly $20/bbl, due to a combination of steadily rising production, pipeline constraints and an unexpected outage at a U.S. refinery.
- The price plunge has done little to curb output because oil sands projects require years to plan, construct and pay back; Imperial Oil (NYSEMKT:IMO) recently doubled production capacity at its Kearl oil sands project to 220K bbl/day, and Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) last week said it was built to withstand low commodity prices even as it lost C$405M in Q2.
- At current oil prices, typical oil sands producers are just covering their operating costs, while companies with higher operating costs are “losing money with each barrel they’re producing," says the VP of energy research at ARC Financial in Calgary.
- The results have spilled beyond the oil market into Canada’s economy, forcing the central bank to twice cut interest rates, driving the Canadian dollar to a decade low and impacting the debate ahead of October's federal election.
- Other related tickers: TRP, ENB, SU, CVE, TCK, CEO, OTCPK:HUSKF
Tue, Aug. 11, 11:35 AM
- Commodity metals are getting hammered by China's devaluation, with aluminum trading down nearly 2%, copper prices lower by 2.5% and nickel plunging more than 3.5%.
- Hardest hit of the mining stocks is Freeport McMoRan (FCX -14.1%), which has completely surrendered yesterday's 10.8% surge; shares now are down 72% over the past year and 57% YTD.
- Iron ore miners are sharply lower: BHP -5.5%, RIO -4.2%, VALE -7.8%, CLF -7.3%.
- Steel companies: X -9.7%, MT -5.1%, AKS -5.7%, NUE -2.9%, STLD -3.5%, CMC -4%.
- Also: AA -6%, CENX -4.9%, TCK -8.2%, SCCO -4.9%.
- ETFs: XLB, JJC, XME, SLX, PEO, VAW, COPX, DBB, UYM, CU, IYM, JJN, SMN, JJU, PICK, MATL, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, FXZ, PYZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD
Tue, Jul. 28, 1:12 PM
- Canada oil sands pipeline projects look doomed after the recent Nexen oil spill leaves "two big football fields of black goo," according to a Bloomberg analysis.
- A rupture in a line operated by the Cnooc (NYSE:CEO) unit that spewed 31K barrels of bitumen, waste water and sand has ignited outrage from communities along pipeline routes and is strengthening opposition that already has stalled every major crude export project from Canada and may lead to stricter regulations, the report says.
- The Alberta Energy Regulator could consider new requirements including scheduled and random inspections of pipelines during construction and while in operation, as well as better spill detection technology; meanwhile, the spill gets bad press in Canadian newspapers every day.
- Related tickers: TRP, ENB, SU, IMO, CNQ, CVE, TCK, OTCPK:HUSKF, OTCQX:COSWF
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Teck Resources Ltd is engaged in mining and related activities including exploration, development, processing, smelting, refining and reclamation. Its major products are steelmaking coal, copper, zinc and lead.
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