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Wed, Sep. 24, 2:43 PM
- The country's disastrous two-term president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner stands to do value-seeking investors not one, but two good turns, writes Grant. Her poor governance has wrecked the economy, and by stepping down, she'll improve it (the next election is October 2015).
- Perhaps looking ahead to 2015, the Argentine Merval Index has already had a major rally over the past year or so, but there's still plenty of upside. The country's domestic stock market capitalization of $55B represents just 17% of GDP vs. a regional average of 49%.
- Kyle Bass is a fan of YPF, but Grant takes note of another name, natural gas delivery company Transportadora de Gas del Sur SA (NYSE:TGS). It's selling for an enterprise value 5x that of EBITDA vs. 6x for comparable companies in the region, but factoring in the potential profitability recovery makes the stock even cheaper.
- ARGT +8.4% YTD
Mon, Jun. 16, 6:19 PM
- ADRs of oil and gas explorer YPF, bank BBVA and Latin America-focused wireless firm NII Holdings (NASDAQ:NIHD) fell sharply today in reaction to a setback for Argentina's defaulted bonds which sent the country's markets reeling, taking select U.S.-listed stocks lower.
- The U.S. Supreme Court today left intact rulings that may force Argentina to pay billions of dollars to holders of repudiated bonds, rejecting an appeal in a case that has blocked the country from international debt markets for more than a decade and could prompt the government to default for a second time in 13 years.
- YPF -11.9%, BBVA -0.8%, NIHD -11.3%, END -14.5%, TGS -10.6%, PZE -8.3%, GGAL -8.1%, PAM -6.6%, APSA -4.2%, NTL -3.3%.
- ETF: ARGT
Jul. 30, 2012, 3:00 PM
Apr. 18, 2012, 3:33 PM
Apr. 16, 2012, 12:09 PMMore on Argentina's takeover of YPF: The government will send a bill to Congress to take a 51% stake in the oil & gas giant for the "public good," according to an official. The move follows weeks of government pressure for the firm to spend more and pay its investors less. Shares -14%, Repsol (REPYY.PK) -1.7%. | 9 Comments
Apr. 4, 2012, 3:52 PMThe Argentine ETF (ARGT -4%) continues to tumble (off 13% in a month) as the U.K. sends a warship to the South Atlantic. Yesterday, President Kirchner yesterday called the U.K.'s claim on the islands "absurd." Also not helping are growing threats of nationalization of the country's oil giant YPF. | 2 Comments
Feb. 29, 2012, 3:13 PMSpain's Repsol (REPYY.PK -5.6%) follows shares of its Argentine subsidiary YPF sharply lower on worries President Fernandez could announce greater intervention into the oil giant's operations on Thursday. The Argentina ETF: ARGT -2.4% - also taking a hit as YPF no doubt makes up a nice chunk of its holdings. | Comment!
Feb. 24, 2012, 8:30 AMThe Economist removes Argentinian inflation statistics from its comprehensive economic statistics reporting, admitting numbers can be dodgy all over the world, but this particular figure is a special case of pure manipulation. "We see no prospect of a speedy return to credible numbers." ARGT +13.6% YTD. | 2 Comments
Dec. 20, 2011, 1:22 PMFacing an increasing capital flight problem, the Argentine government puts into service 100 specially-trained dogs at border crossings to sniff out hard currency begin spirited out of the country. Central bank data shows $8.4B dollars left Argentina in Q3, a sharply higher pace than earlier this year. | 3 Comments
Nov. 14, 2011, 6:47 AMDollars are exiting Argentinian banks just days after the country instituted currency controls aimed at stemming a drain on central bank reserves. The government insists there will be no freeze on dollar deposits, but citizens have seen this movie before. ARGT -24% since its March inception. | 1 Comment
Mar. 29, 2011, 9:16 AMWith inflation running at 25%, government spending continuing to boom, and its central bank chief stoking the money supply, Argentina seems on the cusp of another hyperinflation. For now, life is good. "The first effect of any inflationary process is euphoria," says an ex-cabinet official. ARGT -2.9% since inception. | 1 Comment
Jan. 7, 2011, 5:30 PMThe risk of owning Argentinian bonds drops the most of any nation this week as beans in the teens boosts the economy of the world's 3rd largest soybean producer. “Soy prices improve domestic liquidity, improve taxes ... so it overall improves the ability to pay," says an analyst with RBS. | Comment!
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