Tibco (TIBX -2%) guided on its CC (transcript) for FQ2 revenue of $263M-$271M and EPS of $0.20-$0.22 vs. a consensus of $267M and $0.22.
Worrying some analysts: Tibco admitted its Spotfire analytics/data visualization platform, once growing rapidly, "performed below plan." The company insists product quality isn't an issue. "We been too focused on big deals and traditional enterprise sales and we must move more aggressively to broaden out into a higher volume horizontal market business."
That's something analytics rival Tableau (DATA) has been doing quite well: The company's license revenue rose 93% Y/Y in the December quarter. The next version of Spotfire aims to improve ease-of-use, long a strong point for Tableau.
Tibco's event processing/analytics license sales (41% of license revenue, includes Spotfire) fell 7% Y/Y. On the other hand, its core infrastructure license sales (middleware, 59% of license revenue) rose 18%.
Morgan Stanley (Equal-weight) sees the contrast between Spotfire and middleware's performance as another example of Tibco being hard-pressed in recent years to maintain "consistent execution" across its product line. "With productive sales capacity declining, we don't see a quick fix."
dealReporter observes a recent change in Tibco's (TIBX +1.9%) bylaws makes it easier for an activist investor to obtain board seats.
Interestingly, the move comes after one very prominent activist investor, Dan Loeb, exited a Tibco position that once stood at 5M shares (good for a 2.7% stake). There were hopes Loeb would push Tibco to spin off its business optimization unit (generally growing faster in recent quarters) from its traditional middleware ops.
In addition to establishing a BlackBerry position, Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC took a 600K-share stake in Baidu (BIDU), a 7.6M-share stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS) and a 1M-share stake in NXP (NXPI) during Q4. At current levels, the positions are respectively worth $100M, $237M, and $56M. NXPI +1% AH.
On the other hand, Loeb unloaded the 4.4M-share Tibco (TIBX) position he had at the end of Q3. There were hopes Loeb would use his Tibco stake to push for a spinoff of the company's faster-growing Business Optimization unit. TIBX -1.7% AH.
Loeb also cut his remaining Yahoo (YHOO) position in half to 8M shares. Third Point once had a 60M-share stake in Yahoo, before striking a deal last August to sell 40M shares back to the company and leave its board.
Tableau's (DATA) Q4 revenue and EPS ($81.5M and $0.20) respectively beat consensus forecasts by $14.5M and $0.20. Y/Y revenue growth accelerated to 95% from Q3's 90%.
License revenue (71% of total revenue, drives future maintenance revenue) grew 93%, up from Q3's 90%. Maintenance revenue (29% of total) doubled to $23.4M after growing 91% in Q3.
The data visualization/analytics upstart added 1,800+ customers and closed 179 $100K+ deals in seasonally strong Q4, up from 1,500+ and 119 in Q3. The company's deferred revenue balance rose 28% Q/Q to $69.2M.
Like many fast-growing enterprise software names, Tableau continues to invest aggressively: sales/marketing spend rose 73% Y/Y to $40.1M, and R&D spend 76% to $18.4M.
Rival QLIK +1.3% AH. The company reports on Feb. 20. Tableau's license numbers stands in stark contrast to the Y/Y license revenue decline rival Tibco (TIBX) reported for its Spotfire analytics platform for the November quarter.
Citrix (CTXS +2.5%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan, and to Buy by Nomura. The votes of confidence come a day after shares tumbled in response to the company's soft guidance and disclosure that CEO Mark B. Templeton will be retiring within a year. Several firms had downgraded Citrix in response to the news.
Tibco (TIBX -1.6%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays.
Vimpelcom (VIP +0.5%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi. HSBC cut the Russian mobile carrier to Neutral two days ago.
International Rectifier (IRF +2.3%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi. Shares sold off yesterday following the chipmaker's FQ2 beat.
Autobytel (ABTL -5%) has been cut to Hold by Ascendiant Capital.
The Information reports Dan Loeb has been building up his Tibco (TIBX +5.8%) stake, and could make an activist push. Shares of the middleware/analytics software vendor have spiked higher in response.
Loeb owned 4.425M Tibco shares at the end of Q3, down from 5M at the end of Q2 and good for a 2.7% stake. SA Pro contributor Akram's Razor argued in September Loeb could push for a spinoff/IPO of Tibco's Business Optimization unit, which includes its Spotfire analytics platform.
After many quarters of strong growth, Spotfire saw a Y/Y license revenue decline in Tibco's November quarter (tough comps were blamed). That contrasts sharply with the 90% Y/Y revenue growth analytics rival Tableau saw in Q3.
TIBCO Software Inc. provides infrastructure and business intelligence software. Its software platform enables customers to create flexible, event-driven applications and deliver real-time, actionable insights.