Aug. 27, 2013, 12:05 AM
Aug. 26, 2013, 5:30 PM
Aug. 26, 2013, 10:46 AM
- A consumer paradigm shift toward "things that last" could disrupt the critical holiday shopping season, according to retail analysts.
- After a Q2 which saw Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Best Buy (BBY), hhgregg (HGG), and Conn's (CONN) report solid sales for appliances, a fresh forecast from IBM sees much of the same for H2 with discretionary spending tightening for apparel and incidentals.
- Looking for the trend to end: AEO, ANF, ARO, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, DLTR, GPS, JCP, JWN, KSS, LTD, M, NDN, NKE, PIR, PLCE, RL, RSH, SKS, SPLS, TGT, TIF, TJX, URBN, WMT, WSM, BKE, PSUN, ZUMZ, EXPR
Aug. 21, 2013, 1:40 PM
- Retail is in a state of "bifurcation" as on-trend luxury retailers (KORS, JWN, TIF) and home improvement specialists (HD, LOW) thrive, while heavyweight merchandise retailers (WMT, TGT, COST), mall-based apparel chains (AEO, ARO, LTD), and discounters (DG, DLTR, FDO) disappoint.
- As execs with Target noted during the firm's earnings call this morning, consumers seem more than happy to buy new automobiles and fix up their houses - but have tightened up on toothbrushes, socks, and soap.
- A few companies - through some good luck and solid execution - sit in a consumer demand sweet spot. Ross Stores (RST), TJX Companies (TJX), and Subaru (FUJHY.PK) come to mind.
- Related ETFs: XRT, RTH, PMR, RETL.
Aug. 17, 2013, 9:02 AM
- The market's more richly valued than you think, writes Jack Hough in Barron's, as Q4 S&P 500 (SPY) earnings are expected to rise 10.5% on just a 0.6% increase in revenue. "Where's that margin growth going to come from," asks S&P's Howard Silverblatt. "Most of us aren't exactly napping on the job as it is."
- Avoid sectors particularly prone to estimates cuts like consumer discretionary (XLY) and telecom (IYZ), suggests Hough, but favor safer groups like tech (XLK, though Cisco last week calls "safe" into question) and health care (XLV).
- A stock screen scoring companies by free cash yield as well as ability to still boost margins yields 5 top picks:
- Pfizer (PFE) trades inline with a slow-grower like Merck (MRK) but maybe deserves a multiple closer to a fast-grower like Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).
- Danaher (DHR) - it trades at what seems like a pricey 18x earnings, but just 15x projected free cash.
- Lear (LEA) at 10x earnings is growing faster than the auto market as a whole as it picks up market share and electrical content in cars is rising.
- Oracle (ORCL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) have both seen earnings growing faster than their share price of late, leaving them attractively priced.
- The screen also yielded 3 to avoid:
- Tiffany (TIF) at 20x earnings is pricing in faster earnings growth in 2014. Praxair (PX) expectations are for a near-doubling in earnings growth to 13%. Lennar (LEN) with 32% projected earnings growth remains pricey even as the housing recovery appears to be slowing.
Aug. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM
- Third Point (TPRE) files its Q2 13-F.
- Key increases: TIBX +400%. BID +400%. LBTYK +344%. LBTYA +275%. TMO +92%. COG +10%.
- Key reductions: TIF -38%. NWSA -38%. IP -31%. AIG -25%. STZ -25%. APC -20%.
- Key exits: DLPH, AGU, CIM, LPX, NXPI, HES, EQIX, TDG, ST, MUR, LNG, ABBV, VMED, LYB.
- Key initiations: MPC ($89M). WMB ($57M). ELN ($120M). DIS ($114M). CF ($145M). CCE ($35M).
Aug. 15, 2013, 9:25 AM
Aug. 12, 2013, 12:02 PM
- Goldman's Lindsay Drucker Mann resumes TIF, RL at Neutral, PVH at Buy.
- Tiffany & Company (TIF +0.1%) is resumed at Neutral (six-month PT $84) as optimism regarding a "compelling long-term earnings runway ... is tempered by near-term earnings headwinds, including currency and an early-stage US turnaround effort."
- Ralph Lauren (RL -0.8%) is resumed at Neutral (six-month PT $205). The retailer has delivered "consistent top-line and EPS growth" for a decade against a "backdrop ... loaded with fashion and execution risk."
Jul. 15, 2013, 7:20 AM
Jul. 5, 2013, 9:54 AMForeign retailers see higher rent costs in first-tier cities in China continue to impact their decisions on where to set up shop and which stores to shutter. While sales growth has slowed down, in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai rent prices continue to rise unabated. Tesco (TSCDF.PK), Starbucks (SBUX +0.6%), and Tiffany (TIF +1%) are just a few of the companies adjusted store strategy in the region. | Comment!
Jul. 2, 2013, 7:05 AMRetail sales in Hong Kong grew 12.8% in May to trail the estimates of analysts calling for a 21% gain by a wide margin. The drop could clip expectations for luxury companies which have increased their investments and presence in the region. On watch: Gucci (GUCG.PK), Prada, Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.PK), Coach (COH), Ralph Lauren (RL), Michael Kors (KORS), Swatch (SWGAY.PK), Burberry (BURBY.PK), and Tiffany (TIF). | Comment!
Jun. 10, 2013, 7:59 AM
Jun. 10, 2013, 7:39 AMA slight acceleration in retail sales in China during May up to a 12.9% growth pace bodes well for high-end sellers looking to keep up momentum in the nation. U.S. firms looking for double-digit sales growth to continue in China include Coach (COH), Tiffany (TIF), Ralph Lauren (RL), Michael Kors (KORS), V.F. Corp (VFC), and Warnaco Group (WRC). | Comment!
Jun. 5, 2013, 7:49 AMHigh-end sellers in Hong Kong (MAGOF.PK, COH, TIF, RL, BURBY.PK, KORS, GUCG.PK) saw an influx of traffic during the three-day May Day holiday which could help boost sales totals for the quarter. According to the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the number of mainlanders trekking over to Hong Kong jumped 50% Y/Y during the period. A stronger yuan might be motivating more Chinese consumers to hunt for lower prices in Hong Kong. | 3 Comments
May. 31, 2013, 10:05 AMMore on Credit Suisse's Tiffany (TIF +0.6%) initiation: Analyst Christian Buss says the company has "ample opportunity to grow revenue at a high-single-digit rate and earnings in the low teens over the next five years." Furthermore, the bank says there are "upside opportunities" to consensus given "improving raw material prices [and] a mix shift to higher-margin regions of the world." | Comment!
May. 31, 2013, 6:58 AM
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