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Who's Wrong About Inflation? [view article]
It is like the GPS in a car. Bang, $ 1,500 more and you use it 2 times/year on average but you have a great hedonistic experience. Another great hedonistic experience is Windows Vista and the very expensive PC you must purchase to run it. ReplyWho's Wrong About Inflation? [view article]
If a private individual or business were to engage in the kind of statistical manipulation the government is doing, there would be angry congressional hearings demanding the Department of Justice undertake a prosecution. I wonder if former senator John Edwards will launch a pro-bono lawsuit on behalf of all citizens accusing the government of malpractice? Don't expect future President Obama to set this right either. ReplyWho's Wrong About Inflation? [view article]
The government is understating inflation. The adjustment for "a computer that costs $500 today is of far higher quality than a computer that cost $500 two years ago", is erroneous. Most consumers rarely benefit on an one-to-one basis by the higher quality of their new computer. Price increases on food and energy, on the other hand, are affecting everyone every day.Reply
Who's Wrong About Inflation? [view article]
since the consumer needs food & energy everyday there should be a monthly inflation accounting for this. who cares if a computer is 2x as good as it was 2 years ago. how often does a consumer buy a computer etc. just another scam folks. wake up america. ReplyWho's Wrong About Inflation? [view article]
Why doesn't one of the few remaining CDO /swap packagers put together a swap between the consumer expectations and the TIPs? ReplyTIPS Traders Not Buying Latest CPI Data [view article]
Here's a post from earlier this year showing/asking if the BLS colludes to dip crude prices just prior to their sample date. Maybe they do the same with gasoline sample data? Why doesn't the media ask if this borders on illegal, if true?www.financialsense.com... Reply
The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Three [view article]
bearfund,Your prescription is right on the money, but it won't happen. America is like the typical American, who has neglected his health through bad living habits. When the doctors says, you must start living right, and by the way, some unpleasant medical procedure will be necessary to fix some of the results of past practices, the patient exits the doctor's office and doesn't return. Eat nutritiously, give up harmful consumptions, exercise seriously, get those gums and knees operated on...no, not right now. I'll just continue on the way I'm used to, and get worse as time passes.
What you propose is an end to American consumerism, the creed that more and bigger is better. Overall, as a country, we will not let go of that lifestyle voluntarily. Cut back a little, maybe. Credit cards maxed out, evicted and bankrupt, that person will change because he has no choice. Lower your living standard and save a significant portion of your income for the future -- that's a stretch. Reply
Follow-up on CPI [view article]
Why bother with that 401(k), either? Unless it's full of Norwegian kroner, gold, oil, food, shipping, and railways, it's going to lose value just as rapidly as anything else - maybe more so. 401(k) choices vary greatly from one company to another, but if all yours has are index funds and "target retirement" crap, you'd be better off using taxable accounts to fund your retirement. Plus, who wants to wait until he's 60 to retire?! Replystagflation
survivor
Follow-up on CPI [view article]
Actually, if inflation were calculated using the same methods in place before 1982, the current rate is approaching 12%. The chart on the ShadowStats home page uses the BLS calculation methods from around 1990. For a look at inflation as calculated using the original method (pre-1982), see this ShadowStats chart (scroll down to the CPI Data Series):www.shadowstats.com/al...
For the big picture of inflation going back to 1915, see this link:
dshort.com/inflation/i...
Frankly, I think the BLS was justified in some of the modifications to their inflation calculation algorithm. But the downside is that it obscures the degree to which today's economy is beginning to resemble the grim stagflation of the '70s and early '80s.
Reply
Follow-up on CPI [view article]
shadowstats.com shows the real inflation rate - and it's closer to 5-6%. And no, you won't get S/S. Neither will I (39 yrs old). ReplyExchange-Traded Funds and Closed-End Funds by Asset Class, Type and Provider [view article]
can you please update this list? thanks. ReplyThe Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Three [view article]
Yes, the baby boomer generation and thus much of the population of the US is due to start a rapid decline.Why do you think both Republicans and Democrats turn a blind eye to illegal immigration? We need the population. The problem is getting everyone up to full levels of employment and productivity quickly. This actually happens pretty quickly- usually the second generation is there. With Mexico turning into a significant manufacturing country over the last 30 years, many first generation immigrants have a lot of skills.
Reply
The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Three [view article]
A good thorough article and Jonathan Christopher makes a good argument with respect to the Boomers and immigration.I share his opinion that the diminishing impact of the Boomer generation will act as a drag on housing. Here's a link to an article I wrote-blog.metro-real-estate.... It also contains a link to a related article on the same subject. Reply
Christopher
The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Three [view article]
Everyone is ignoring the elephant in the room - The negative side of the Baby Boom Demographics. Just as the current age- group of 45-55 year old consumers has driven growth, in about 3 years they will drive decline. Increasing medical costs, decreasing consumption, and moving into smaller homes, this group will drive the US into extended Recession and perhaps Depression.It is highly unfortunate that a housing bubble occurred just before this slide in consumption started. It is possible that the excess housing will not disappear for a decade.
Our best bet - though I do not see any politician picking up this ball, is to create an economic union with Mexico. The flood of young and willing workers would revive the sagging demographics of the 20 to 35 year olds and simultaneously reduce our National Security problem. Mexico's southern border is much smaller and could be well-controlled if desired.
I have sold as much residential rental housing and purchased as much student housing as I could- 2 1/2 years ago. As the economy declines, and people have difficulty finding jobs - they return to school - to gain new skills or to delay that day when they need to get a regular job.
I also shifted from regular equities to Canadian Royalty Trusts, and, as soon as I can find them, suitable, income-producing Limited Partnerships with substantial Tax deferral characteristics. Reply
Goode
The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Three [view article]
Good point GeoffB. Reply