iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP)

All Comments on TIP

  • commenter
    BondGuy
    Sep 03 02:49 PM
    Runaway Inflation: Do TIPS Really Help? [view article]
    However poor a measure of inflation CPI may be, the so-called advantage of stocks, the equity premium over safe bonds, is also measured against CPI. A 10 year TIPS guarantees 1.7% real return over the next decade. Will you be able to beat that with stocks over the next 10 years? If history is a guide, the answer is yes. The equity premium is estimated to be a 5 percent real return over safe bonds, yielding a predicted 6.7% real return The only question is whether history will repeat itself. We all know the answer to that. Don't we? Reply
  • commenter
    Matt
    Blackman
    Sep 02 08:05 PM
    My Website
    Why Core Inflation? [view article]
    Only a highly-biased liberal economist like Thoma could argue for the merits of a useless stat like core inflation. Both CPI (core and non-core) as well as GDP are highly skewed to give the desired result. They are certainly of no value to investors or traders... (See Perfecting the Art of Mass Deception at tradesystemguru.com/co... )
    Governments throughout history have clearly demonstrated that their motivation in producing (and manipulating) these statistics has little to do with providing any useful information and everything to do with getting re-elected. Rely on them at your peril.     Reply
  • commenter
    Whidbey
    Sep 02 02:06 PM
    Inflation Fears Subside [view article]
    Yes tips will rally once the sell off in equities gets underway. Commodities don't rally until the oil play is run out in late fall, it appears. But in any case flight to quality comes first. Central bank of Australia lowered its rate 25bp, looks like the slow down will be fairly wide spread and general, so demand for petrol may lack for longer than a year if the slow down rolls around the world. Reply
  • commenter
    User 143167
    Sep 02 11:47 AM
    My Website
    Global Investing: Get Past the Noise [view article]
    Stocks like WMT, IBM and Intel have more cash flow from overseas, actually 50% of the earnings in S&P500 are from oversea sellings. With cash flow in a basket of currencies and the stock denominated in the $, a strengthening US$ will be negative to the value of US stocks. Every analysts who use DDM or DCF to value stocks know this. Reply
  • commenter
    Nidhi
    Sep 02 11:26 AM
    My Website
    Global Investing: Get Past the Noise [view article]
    Strengthening US Dollar is making US assets appear better .. to say the least .. Reply
  • commenter
    oldman
    Sep 02 11:03 AM
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    I thought I was being smart by adding alternative asset allocation class mutual fund to my portfolio but what I am seeing is when market is up alternative class is down more than it is up when market is down. Is that supposed to be? Reply
  • commenter
    buyitcheap
    Sep 02 10:52 AM
    Global Investing: Get Past the Noise [view article]
    As the USD goes, so inversely go the international fund returns. Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Sep 01 02:08 PM
    My Website
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    Kinabalu:

    I will need to think about your proposition that economics lends itself to modeling better than investments. The great thing about investments is that, at least in portfolio theory, we are trying to model the odds rather than a point outcome...

    Geoff     Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Sep 01 02:06 PM
    My Website
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    To Kotika98:

    If I may paraphrase you here--and this is similar to a point Warren Buffett has been making for years--U.S. based firms that trade internationally do reap many of the benefits of the expansion of emerging markets, so it seems less important to invest directly via ADRs. There is something to this--especially as Mr. El-Erian acknowledges that global markets are becoming more highly correlated in time.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kinabalu
    Sep 01 03:15 AM
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    Geoff:

    Foolish - No. Obvious - Yes.

    I must confess I have a much higher opinion of Mr. Friedman than of Mr. El-Erian. But then Economics is much more conducive to modeling than Investments, wouldn't you agree, particularly given the problems of market impact?     Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Aug 31 06:54 PM
    My Website
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    To Kinabalu:

    The Friedman quote is not so foolish as you would indicate. I find that the majority of investors seem to follow rules of thumb and conceptual models that are far from validated under this standard! I mention 'the great moderation' and the 'decoupling' of foreign equity markets from the U.S. as examples of thoroughly un-validated conceptual models--but there are many more. This should be common sense, but it is not. Chasing performance is, of course, the ultimate case of this kind of fallacy. People are, sadly, uncriticial of the models that drive their thinking--but there is a macro process to looking at models. I have spent my professional career--in finance, but also for almost a decade at NASA---building and then tearing down quantitative models. The ideas expressed by Mr. El-Erian are deep in this regard, but I understand that they may seem obvious at first glance.     Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Aug 31 06:49 PM
    My Website
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    CLH and IronCity:

    What is different about the perspective that Mr. El-Erian brings is that it emphasizes portfolio-level thinking, quantifying and managing to expected returns and risks, and using models to be able to look at the risk-return tradeoffs of positions in a consistent framework. That said, I have tried to match my discussion to the tone of the book. The book is a 'big picture' kind of treatment...

    Institutional research focuses on portfolio-level thinking, as does this book. Retail investors focus far more narrowly on the short-term and 'news' and tactics. Tactics are important, but Strategy is key as the first step.

    Look up the annual reports from Yale or Harvard and you will see what I mean. CLH says:

    "Investing is a short term activity and trying to look far out into the future is meaningless."

    This is the retail investor's view of the world and mutual fund managers cater to this sort of perspective. Endowments and other institutional investors consistently trounce retail investors and a lot of the reason is that institutional investors plan for the long-term effectively. If you read my articles, I try to bring some of this kind of portfolio thiniking to a wider audience...I cannot capture it all in one place--but that may be a good idea for an article--to try to summarize in brief. How about a title like "What Institutional Investors Do that Retail Investors Don't Do"?

    Bottom line: there are standards of practice among successful institutional investors and retail investors would benefit from paying attention. Just look at the performance of Yale and Harvard...as well as many others. Retail investors chase performance, so fund managers give them what they want...but it is not the best way to invest by any means.

    Reply
  • commenter
    rayhendon
    Aug 30 08:08 PM
    Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
    The last sentence should read: They poorly reward tyhe investor... Reply
  • commenter
    rayhendon
    Aug 30 08:07 PM
    Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
    Duration is one of the critical variables in a bond fund. The longer durations have much more volatility, for now, not much extra yield. Ultimately it is a personal decision as to which yields and duration are best for your portfolio. Personally, I do not recommend any long term funds. They poorly reqard the investor for the increased risks and yield.

    Best wishes,

    ray     Reply
  • commenter
    IronCity
    Aug 30 07:07 PM
    Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
    Mr Considine, in your comment you said: “Look at the endowments at Harvard and Yale and read institutional research, and you see a very different view of the world.”
    Sorry, I could not find this “very different view of the world” in any part of your your article. I understand that are a lot of different opinions or views about change in our times, but I’m afraid there is not a new paradigm (or a generally accepted new truth).
    If there is a new paradigm in the way of investing (or related to investing techniques) please explain it.
    I agree with Mr. Whidbey when he says “Modeling is easy to do, but in my experience it is hard follow to a portfolio result”.
    And also that if there are: “2100 funds and only 17 showing positive results”, this means something.
    In general I find the article very long and diffuse.
    Reply
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