Nov. 16, 2013, 10:08 PM
- "Our problem is that the S&P is up this year about 25% on earnings that are up 3%. So we've got a market that is rising because of P/E expansion," 21-year GMO veteran Ben Inker tells Barron's (one recalls a similar warning from Guggenheim back in August).
- Inker argues that because P/E multiples are still expanding at a time when profit margins are "already as good as we've ever seen," the prospects for upside surprises to profit growth look "pretty dim" going forward.
- As for bonds, Inker characterizes the return on U.S. government debt as "horrible" and says corporate debt "is riskier than people are making it out to be, particularly the very low-rated stuff."
- Inker's picks for the current environment: TIPS, "high-quality" U.S. companies, and emerging-market stocks where reasonable valuations leave room for some upside.
- "High-quality" U.S. stocks mentioned include: JNJ, MCD, WMT, MSFT
- TIPS ETFs: TIP, VTIP, IPE, SCHP, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, TPS, TDTT, TDTF, TIPX
- EM ETFs: EEM, VWO, EDC, EDZ, SCHE, IEMG, EEV, PIE, ADRE, EUM, EET, GMM, EEME, EMCR, DBEM, EWEM, FEM, EMLB, EMSA, EMFT, EMDR
- High-yield ETFs: HYG, JNK, HYS, HYLD, SJNK, PHB, SJB, ANGL, XOVR, UJB, QLTC
Nov. 1, 2013, 4:27 PM| Comment!
Oct. 23, 2013, 2:58 PM
- Assets in dividend-themed ETFs have ballooned nearly 50% to $80B this year, according to Ned Davis Research, led by Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) with $3.2B in inflows, the SPDR Dividend ETF (SDY) with $1.2B, and the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) with $1.6B.
- Meanwhile, ETFs holding U.S. government debt hold just $67B in assets, with funds like the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) seeing several hundred million exit, and the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) losing a whopping $6.9B.
- The team at Ned Davis recommends looking away from the popular dividend plays and towards a lagging emerging-market alternative, the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Small-Cap Dividend Fund (DGS), yielding 3.3% and up 3.8% this year.
- Dividend ETFs: FDL, FVD, MDIV, QDF, QDYN, QDEF, DIV, CVY, DVY, HDV, IYLD, PEY, PFM, SCHD, SDY, SDYL, DVYL, VYM, DHS, DTD, SYLD, KBWD, SPHD, DLN, DON, HILO, DGRS, DNL, EMDG, DGRW, VIG, DGRE.
- Global dividend ETFs: AXJL, AUSE, GNAT, DTH, DWM, SDIV, DVYE, EDIV, DEM, FDD, FGD, LVL, PID, DEW, WDIV, IDOG, DTN, DOO, IQDF, IQDE, IQDY, IDV, DVYA, DWX, DOL, CCXE, DIM, GULF, DRW, DBU.
- Small-cap dividend ETFs: DGS, DFE, DFJ, DXJS, DES, DLS.
Oct. 2, 2013, 10:20 AM| Comment!
Sep. 3, 2013, 1:51 PM| Comment!
Aug. 19, 2013, 3:57 AM
- Outflows from U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs have risen to $19.7B in August from $14.8B in July, TrimTabs says, making this month's figure so far the fourth-highest on record.
- Since the beginning of June, $103.5B has left bond funds, or 2.7% of total assets.
- The sell-off in bonds, which has been prompted by fears of Fed tapering, has sent Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year hitting 2.871% today, the highest for just over two years.
- "We are concerned that the Fed is starting to lose control of the bond market, which is not good news for the stock market or the highly leveraged U.S. economy," TrimTabs said
- Related ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC, TRSY, PLW, GOVT, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ, TIP, STIP, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, SCHP, IPE, TPS, TDTT, TDTF, RINF, FINF, INFL, DEFL, UINF, SINF, VTIP, TIPX, STPP, FLAT
Aug. 1, 2013, 2:57 PM| Comment!
Jul. 31, 2013, 3:31 PM
- TIPS (TIP +0.6%) turn from lower on the session to a sizable gain following the FOMC statement where the committee brought previous dissenter Jim Bullard on board by noting inflation below the 2% objective could pose a risk to the economy.
- The 10-year TIPS yield is down to 0.42% from 0.48% earlier, the 30-year down to 1.34% from 1.4%.
- TIPS, of course, become more valuable as inflation rises as their principal moves alongside.
Jul. 16, 2013, 12:31 PMBill Gross (BOND) upped Treasury and MBS holdings in June, reports Bloomberg, as his fund suffered a relative shellacking. To make room, he cut back on non-U.S. government debt. Pimco doesn't break out TIPS (TIP) holdings from the overall Treasurys figure, but Gross had previously been a big buyer and inflation-protected paper got banged even worse than normal government bonds during the selloff. | 1 Comment
Jul. 1, 2013, 8:24 PM
Jun. 27, 2013, 4:51 PMGundlach: Tell us how you really feel, Jeff. "TIPS (TIP) are probably the worst asset class in the U.S. ... I have talked myself blue in the face (previous) trying to get investors not to buy (them)." Given their recent big declines, he doesn't hate them as much as a few weeks ago, but he's still not a buyer. On municipals (MUB), he's a buyer, particularly in closed-end funds who've been doubly whacked thanks to growing discounts to NAV. A sampling of muni CEFs: NIO, NVG, BTT, NPM, NRK, MUC, VCV, NEA. | 3 Comments
Jun. 22, 2013, 9:30 AMIt's "total capitulation" in fixed income (AGG, BND), says BAML's Michael Hartnett. The "blood bath" includes the largest-ever three-week rush of bond-fund redemptions, $2.6B leaving (2nd largest outflow ever) the Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), and mortgage-backed securities (MBB), municipal bonds (MUB), and TIPS (TIP) funds each now showing net outflows for 2013. | 47 Comments
Jun. 15, 2013, 9:55 AMMore than half of bond ETFs saw price price declines greater than their drop in NAV last month, according to Morningstar. The MUB's 3.1% fall compares to a 1.3% dip in NAV - not peanuts considering the fund's 2.8% annual yield. Similar patterns were seen in other muni funds like CXA and ITM as well as in junk bond ETFs like HYG, but was not evident in TIPS (TIP) trackers or broad fixed-income ETFs like AGG and BND. | 2 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 4:26 PMAdd TIPS (TIP) to the list of safe-havens proving to be anything but as this sort of inflation-protection doesn't work when rates rise but inflation doesn't. The rout has sent the yield on 10-year TIPS into positive territory for the first time since Dec. 2011, reports Carolyn Cui. Investors have pulled $7.2B out of TIPS ETFs this year, already more than the $5.2B inflow for all 2012. | 3 Comments
Jun. 4, 2013, 4:42 PM
Jun. 3, 2013, 1:52 PM
TIP vs. ETF Alternatives
The iShares Barclays Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond Fund seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the inflation-protected sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index (Series-L).
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