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iShares Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF

5/24/2013, 8:48 AM ET

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Friday, August 10, 2012, 2:58 PM The slightest of cracks in the long-running Treasury bull market had investors flocking to a popular leveraged bond short fund (TBT) yesterday, with nearly 100K call options trading hands. Foiled again (for now) - after popping as high as 1.72% yesterday (from below 1.4% in July), the 10-year yield has fallen back to 1.64%. TBT -1.4%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, August 9, 2012, 11:15 AM The yield curve continues to steepen, the 10-year Treasury up another 3 bps to 1.72% (the highest in 2 months). A steeper curve is consistent with a growing economy, writes Vince Cignarella, but does it mean the Fed - hard at work trying to suppress long yields through The Twist - is becoming irrelevant? 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 1:28 PM The buyers who stampeded to buy 10-year Treasurys priced to yield 1.46% at July's auction are absent today (at a 1.68% yield). Today's bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49 fell far below last month's 3.61, and direct bidders took down just 5.2% of the total vs. 45.4% in July, leaving the primary dealers to mop up the rest. TLT -0.5%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, August 7, 2012, 9:25 AM Long-term Treasury yields climb to their highest level in a month, the 10-year up 5 bps to 1.62%, the long bond up 6 bps to 2.72%. A bit has been made about the divergence between stocks and Treasury yields - perhaps it will be resolved through falling Treasury prices, rather than lower stock values. 18 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, August 6, 2012, 8:58 AM "Mind the gap," as stocks and Treasury yields - moving in lockstep for much of the year - have diverged, the 10-year Treasury yield remaining near its 2012 low as stocks rally since early June. (via tradefast) Comment!
Friday, August 3, 2012, 12:13 PM Treasury prices plunge (yields fly higher) following the big rally in Europe and the NFP report. The future is unknown, but a buyer of the 10-year Treasury at 1.5% requires an unceasing stream of bad news to make money, while being open to getting fried on just the slightest bit of economic sunlight. SPY pulls far ahead of TLT in YTD returns. 11 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 31, 2012, 11:30 AM Michael Harkins offers a quick lesson in duration, saying a buyer of the 10-year Treasury at 1.5% will get crushed with just a move back in yields to 2.5%. The bond market is a fabulous bubble, he says, growing in size as those who went short at the then impossibly low rate of 2.5% a year ago lack the conviction to do the same at 1.5%. 22 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, July 27, 2012, 2:42 PM The White House projects a $1.21T deficit for its FY12 budget in its mid-session review, slightly less than then $1.33T projected in February. It's also projecting a cumulative deficit of $3.44T (3.9% of expected GDP) from FY13-FY17, and forecasts 2.3% GDP growth in FY12 and 2.7% growth in FY13, below prior forecasts of 2.7% and 3%. 21 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 24, 2012, 2:47 PM Long-dated Treasury yields fall to record lows, the 30-year off 4 bps to 2.46%, the 10-year off 3 bps to 1.40%. While 2-year yields in safe havens like Switzerland (-0.46%) and Germany (-0.06%) fall to negative territory (with even France at 0.34%), 2-year U.S. Treasurys stubbornly remain at 0.21% (huge demand at auction earlier). And oh yeah, TLT has pulled ahead of SPY YTD (chart). 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, July 23, 2012, 8:38 PM Risk-averse Treasury investors are likely to get themselves a big haircut if they stay in, warns Pimco's Bill Gross. "All interest rates are on a negative basis,” Gross says. So - although he stops short of recommending an outright buy - if you want to preserve your purchasing power, you need to be looking at riskier "real" assets like stocks, high-yield bonds, real estate and gold. (Video) 8 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 17, 2012, 8:55 AM Some sentiment numbers for the contrarians to chew over: 81% of clients are bearish on the euro for the next 6 months, according to JPMorgan (euro chart). Corn bulls rise to 95%, according to Jake Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Index (corn chart). Bond bulls are at 87% (bond chart). (h/t Thomas Thornton) 2 Comments [Global & FX, Commodities, U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, July 10, 2012, 2:52 PM Treasury prices reverse losses and turn higher as Cummins provides a grim picture of global economic growth. The 10-year yield dips under 1.50%, within range of its modern-era low of 1.44%. The long bond yield falls to 2.60 (record low is 2.50%). TLT and SPY are neck and neck for the year, both up over 6%. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 10, 2012, 9:42 AM Merrill Lynch quietly tells its clients to prepare for a fundamental geopolitical shift in which western (mostly American) dominance crumbles with nothing ready to take its place. Ideas: Buy ETFs to guard against inflation and higher taxes set to be unleashed by desperate governments. Abandon the idea Treasurys are a special risk-free asset class, and look at the paper of places like Australia and Singapore. 7 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Monday, July 9, 2012, 10:10 AM There's $10.5T in U.S. government debt and still not enough to go around. Bond dealers are hoarding the good stuff, offering just $7.2B in Treasurys to the Fed (buying due to The Twist) in June vs. $12.1B/day in October. "People are not willing to sell Treasurys," says a fund manager. Let yields rise 100 basis points and we'll see who's not willing to sell. (see also) 17 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 3, 2012, 8:55 AM A look at the performance of key ETFs for U.S. fixed income during H1 shows corporate credit - both investment grade (LQD) and high yield (HYG) - providing the best returns. They were nearly matched by long-term Treasurys, but without TLT's wild ride. Municipals (MUB) performed more like stocks, up big early, but giving up a lot of those gains. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, June 29, 2012, 9:13 AM "Extreme long dollar and 30-year Treasury," reads Societe Generale's Hedge Fund Watch of positions entering today's session. The euro is up 1.8%, and the long bond is down nearly 2 full points (yield 10 bps higher). Oops. Comment! [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]