SPDR Lehman Long Term Treasury ETF (TLO)

All Comments on TLO

  • commenter
    dieuwer
    Sep 05 02:33 PM
    The Treasury Bull Is Alive and Kicking [view article]
    Additionally, I do agree that the US Treasury bull market is not dead, yet. If you want to see a bubble, look at the Japanese bondmarket. Reply
  • commenter
    dieuwer
    Sep 05 02:31 PM
    The Treasury Bull Is Alive and Kicking [view article]
    "Note: That is as far back as stockcharts goes."
    This statement is incorrect. My stockcharts go back to 1981. Regardless, the trend is the same (of course).

    As to your statement that the FED is powerless, I think that is too black and white. By taking half-hearted measures as summed under "failed steps" the FED accomplished nearly nothing.
    However, there is one thing that the FED can do to boost balance sheets and that is MONETIZATION of the ENTIRE US DEBT.

    Yes, we may have a bout of deflation this year and perhaps next year, but the commodity bull is hardly dead. The speculation has come off, but supply and demand will still be there. ONE BILLION Chinese still want cars, a house, vacantions, etc. Besides, a secular bull market does not end after 5 years with relative prices that are still low compared to the Dow.
    Ask yourself, is the DOW/GOLD ratio at 1.0 already? Ask yourself, is the DOW/CRB ratio already at 2.5?     Reply
  • commenter
    whidbey
    Aug 27 08:07 PM
    Bond Expert: Wednesday Wrap [view article]
    When the market is thin, and at the end of a season, anything can happen as the kinks are pulled out. We must wait to see what the movers and the shakers think about their book. Frankly, I am fearful we are bottoming in the equities and dollar, that means bonds may be attractive for a while. Isn't that disgusting? Reply
  • commenter
    GKM
    Aug 27 05:33 PM
    Bond Expert: Wednesday Wrap [view article]
    So based on this, this is the scary scenario I had been expecting. The smart and fast money is going into paper in preparation for the coming deflation. This has been helpful John to know that the trades I've been planning to put on are the right ones. It also goes to affirm that generally the obvious trades are obviously wrong. Reply
  • commenter
    Evan P
    Aug 25 08:07 PM
    My Website
    Tweaking the Global T-Bill Theory [view article]
    This is actually an interesting idea...before I got into stock-picking, I actually had about 50% of my portfolio in the Oppenheimer International Bond Fund (OIBAX). It has a 12.14% annual return and a 6.90% yield as of July 31st 2008....and yes, it IS a bond fund. Reply
  • commenter
    J. Howle
    Aug 21 10:41 PM
    My Website
    Three Bond Classes: Year-to-Date Returns [view article]
    Brett: A good observation but the question is why? Why do high grade municipal bonds on the intermediate and long term part of the curve out yield Treasurys?
    Why has the intermediate portion of both the Treasury and muni curve out performed the long end? The muni/treasury relationship has created what I feel are rare opportunities in muni bonds. If you want to put on an abritrage trade then you can buy PZA (a muni ETF) and buy TBT ( a short treasury ETF) and wait for the spread to collapse.

    Reply
  • commenter
    whidbey
    Aug 20 03:48 PM
    Three Bond Classes: Year-to-Date Returns [view article]
    It is a nice graph which says that fear is running the markets these days, but you have not seen anything yet. Treasuries will become even more valuable when equities dive and fear grips the traders. I will sell then and of course, I am short too. I wonder if PM will come in out of the cold? Reply
  • commenter
    psj
    Aug 19 12:45 AM
    Bond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
    John, thanks for the article, I'm trying to learn more about bonds in general. Do you also cover High Income and Tax Free's? I'm curious if the one is too risky now, and, or if it is too soon to get into the second? Reply
  • commenter
    whidbey
    Aug 18 05:26 PM
    Bond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
    you dress up simple fear in very swanky motives:" hoping for a rate cut in the future?" Do they really invest on a hope such as that. I read your opinions and I appreciate the attempt to personify the bond buyers as real, living, breathing beings. They are not. In another life they would be bottom eaters or body snatchers like Pimco' undertakers who sort thru the dead (mortgages) to see what might be salvaged. Another's need to borrow becomes an opportunity for the scroungers. thanks for trying. Reply
  • commenter
    sanserve
    Aug 06 11:49 AM
    My Website
    Long and Junk Bond ETFs: Stepchildren of Fixed Income Investing [view article]
    Good News For Income Investors

    Looking for good news in today's markets is like searching for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Needless to say, practically all investment grade equities and nearly all closed end funds that specialize in providing regular recurring monthly income have been reduced in market value by this prolonged correction. The quake has spread in all directions from its financial epicenter, and the mounting doom and gloom has taken its toll on even the most rational investment decision makers. Try to keep in mind that the purpose of income investing is the income that your portfolio produces not an increase in the securities' market values---

    So here's the good news (and for anyone with a 40% or higher income asset allocation, or an income portfolio being used for living expenses), it really is very good news. Base income levels, from the beginning of the stock market correction in June '07 until mid-July '08, have barely changed at all. In fact, they have probably risen in properly asset allocated portfolios. I have examined the regular recurring monthly income distributed by 56 taxable income CEFs and 61 tax-free income CEFs, and the conclusions are pretty remarkable.

    In spite of the fact that the vast majority of my favorite monthly income producers are lower in market value than I would like, the amount of income they are distributing to shareholders has not moved lower meaningfully--- even though the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by approximately 60% during the past twelve months. Here are the numbers: (1) 48% of the taxable-income CEFs are distributing precisely the same amount per share as they did a year ago. Fourteen issues have increased their payouts and fifteen have reduced them.

    The net result is a decrease of just fourteen cents (2.5% of the total monthly payout). The average current yield on the portfolio, as of mid July '07, is 9.86% without considering any capital gains distributions. Additionally, the group is selling at market prices that reflect an average discount of nearly 11% from NAV. Is that special or what? The bonds, preferred stocks, government securities are priced 11% below their current market values.

    (2) The numbers are similar with regard to the 61 tax-free income CEFs: 46% have not altered their payout over the past twelve months; eighteen have reduced their payout slightly, and 15 have increased the monthly dole. The net difference for the group over the past year is less than one cent, or a percentage change of two-tenths of one percent. Remarkable. This group is selling at an average discount from NAV of 9.1% and has a current tax-free yield of 5.51%.

    (3) Of 117 individual issues, about half have produced stable income. The others have accounted for a total payout reduction of less than 15 cents--- a measly 1.7%. Why is this amount of little consequence? Two reasons really.

    First of all, a properly asset-allocated income portfolio does not disburse all of the base income it receives, so there is income available to reinvest in more shares of income producing securities. This process assures a growing cash flow to calm your fear of rising prices. The other reason is a bit more hypothetical. The Fed has lowered rates significantly, a process that normally produces higher prices for income securities. Eventually, those lower interest rates (even if global pressures convince politicians to take back some of the reductions) should produce higher prices (i.e., profit taking opportunities) in these securities.

    Admittedly, even if your asset allocation has been fine tuned for years, lower portfolio market values in this area make stock market valuation shrinkage feel even worse. But the value of stable cash flow becomes painfully clear for investors who misguidedly depend on capital gains for their spending money. Properly asset allocated portfolios contain enough base income generators to pay the bills. The purpose of capital gains is to produce proportionately more base income generators.

    The purpose of this email is simply to bring some needed sunlight into an investment environment that is far gloomier than I think it needs to be. If you want the details, you'll have to request them personally.


    Steve Selengut
    www.sancoservices.com
    www.kiawahgolfinvestme.../
    Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
    Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
    Reply
  • commenter
    11worth
    Aug 02 10:20 PM
    Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
    When writing a financial piece, make it a principle to avoid misspelling the word principal throughout the piece-- if you wish to be taken seriously. Reply
  • commenter
    adan
    Jul 31 05:33 PM
    My Website
    Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
    excellent article and information, very educational and useful, thank you

    inflation, of course, is a more than valid concern re return – but assuming inflation will remain a problem forever is like assuming the stock market will rise or fall forever also

    in a deflationary environment, which I believe is more an issue than most people do I think, these type funds of these type interest paying treasuries have been and would be in demand

    the belief in perpetual inflation is useful for someone wanting or trying to create monetary dilution, keeping everyone focussed on spending and accepting inflation as normal

    at my age, and thus for all practical purposes, this may be true :-) however, I tend to believe that deflation alternates w/inflation in our current fiat environment (and may well have under the various gold standards, I’m not sure)

    thus, re the treasuries value, I think, like most everything else, they’ll vary over time

    and gold is great, literally; but I tend to prefer it for insurance at this point, over any increase in value; the insurance being storage of value

    and toilet paper (as per the commentator above), well, I try not to be out of it :-)

    info re international treasury etf's would be interesting, esp if they were for countries w/as close a risk base to that of the u.s. as could be found
    Reply
  • commenter
    mitsuo
    Jul 31 04:48 PM
    Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
    It would also help the credibility of the article and the author if the tickers referred to the correct ETFs. Pretty shallow analysis with a lot of padding.

    Also, where are the international treasury & international treasury inflation-linked ETFs?     Reply
  • commenter
    bearfund
    Jul 31 11:47 AM
    Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
    "Less clear of course is what specifically it will cost an investor to own a piece of this vast market and what that debt is worth in terms of some other asset (such as euro debt or gold)..."

    Or, say, the goods and services you typically buy - rent, food, fuel, electricity, water, clothing, etc. The bond market is obsessed with the "quality" of Treasuries - the certainty, as you point out, that there is no default risk. So what? If you hold an Argentine bond and the Kirchners default on it, how much bread can you buy with the total coupon + principal payments you received? If you hold a Treasury bond paying 4% while prices are rising 12%, how much bread can you buy with that? What if that 12% becomes 20%? That's all that matters: purchasing power. The certainty that you'll get your $1000 back 30 years from now is irrelevant. What will it be worth?

    The market has forced real interest rates on even very long-duration debt deeply into negative territory. It's hard to imagine being sufficiently bearish on the world economy that one would be willing to eat 7% a year in lost coupon purchasing power and the substantial risk of capital loss just to avoid finding something better to do with the money. Buying toilet paper would be a better choice; you'll always need it and it isn't getting cheaper.

    Long PST and TBT. Long gold. Other short Treasury positions.     Reply
  • commenter
    Josh Stern
    Jul 14 11:08 PM
    Bond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
    Beyond the sanctuary aspect, the dollar is doing better than expected vs. the Euro because Trichet is humming a happy tune while he drives Europe over the cliff.
     Reply
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